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Kept buying under $3 for trading, have core at $2, HUGE NEWS today. P3 design will be FAST and CHEAP. Much higher chance of P3 approval w this kind of study design too.
Expecting new all time highs within 2 weeks or so. Breakthrough Drug designation by FDA likely within next 2 weeks, can happen anytime between now and about 11/2 based on FDA 60 day response guarantee, estimated 9/2 application. A partnership or buyout could come at any time as well. Nice catalysts ahead.
This is a likely multibagger from here. Takeda spent about 2X current AUPH market cap buying a preclinical drug that had not even gone through human trials yet!
AUPH on the other hand has just release blockbuster Phase 2b results, and their drug Voclosporin has been taken safely by more than ***2000 patients****. They achieved all primary and secondary endpoints.
The market for their drug is about 1.5 billion annually in just 3 regions of the world (US, Europe, and Japan), yet their market cap is presently a tenth of that.
Drug makers trade for 2 to 4X revenue, so this means a reasonable estimate for market cap once selling would be about 3 billion, or 20X higher than here.
The same team that is bringing this to market sold VPHM for 4.2 BILLION and another company for about a billion, so they have the track record and pedigree to do it again, as well as the results needed to do so.
The float is quite small, on the order of 17 million shares. Volume recently is through the roof, suggesting float is about to be locked. Investors realizing the MASSIVE potential of this drug are not selling, so the effective float is almost NIL.
A near term catalyst is expected to hit in the next couple of weeks, when the FDA replies to their application for Breakthrough Drug Status.
As we have seen, TBRA was purchased for 7X market cap at the same stage as AUPH is not in the approval process, so a partnership or buyout at any time is possible.
In summary, multibagger bullish outlook.
This drug works, works well in fact, and the stock is a GIFT at these prices based on knee jerk reaction to the fact that, duh! there were actually some deaths in a group of patients with a FATAL DISEASE lol.
Of course, when you have a trial for a drug that helps with ED or something where you test healthy people and people die, that makes sense to have the stock price drop, because the drug kills healthy people. But AUPH drug has been hailed by Lupus Foundation as a BIG WIN as you stated, and is basically guaranteed to get bought out or have a partnership soon.
Takeda in Japan spent over 3X market cap of AUPH just to partner with and secure rights to a CLINICAL STAGE DRUG, vs this drug in P2. BIIB getting back into clinical dev as well, etc.
Dont know how long it will take the market to figure these things out, but don't care, the summary is this goes higher, much higher.
.875 average so far, may add more. If oil recovers or they sell assets this is a multibagger. 835 million in cash, burn rate has been high but they are lowering it. Angola is key near term, it likely will not close but can be re-marketed to deep pocket giants like XOM starting 8/22.
Thanks Some new positives: they will not be delisted, as of today they got an extension with Nasdaq till June 7th. Worst case they would have to do a RS sometime in late May to get their 10 days over $1. And I have seen stocks like RLJE (similar market cap and company profile) go from .25 to 1.5 in the space of 2 months, so hoping that is what we get here. At the very least it clears up uncertainty for now, which the market always hates.
Second good news is that Merriman came out yesterday with a price target of $1.25 (half that of Piper Jaffray's recent PT) and they also did a calculation that conservatively looked at residual values of equipment and they stated that $0.92 should be a FLOOR price. As in 4X higher than where we trade right now.
I am mystified but I have been buying more down here, sometimes you find mis-allocations like this and just have to weather the storm. My average is just under 34 cents now so just need about 9 more cents to get back in the green, I can be patient....
The conference call proved it, this company is WAY undervalued.
They gave a metric for value per subscriber of between $500 and $1000 based on similar channels like DramaFever and CrunchyRoll sales valuations.
NFLX right now is something like $550 even after declining from about $856 per subscriber at recent highs.
So presently Dove channel is worth between 11 million to 22 million dollars after JUST 5 months of operation.
All this while CIDM has other channels, a whole digital cinema business, residual equipment value, an enterprise value that is over 10X current market cap due in large part to a huge tax loss advantage to any acquiring company.
Dove alone at current growth rates will be worth anywhere from 40 million to 80 million a year from now, all this while CIDM itself trades at 17 million in total market cap today.
The problem seems to be that it is a small cap company that is not widely followed and their EPS keeps coming out negative because they are doing marketing spend to build out the Dove channel. When you are worth 17 million only and you can add that amount of market cap every 200 days with just one channel, then that is what you do.
This thing is going to get bought out by a company like Lionsgate, or Softbank which already bought DramaFever, or Otter which bought CruncyRoll, etc.
Simply the most undervalued stock I can find and so I added more 2 days ago before earnings, and again today after earnings. Looking forward to the multibagger here, just a matter of time
Dove Channel is a HOMERUN. Exponential growth.
They got something like 22,000 subscribers in just over 4 months, but when you graph out the rates of registered users is it hockey stick curving up, so the rate of sign up is exponentially increasing.
Supposedly DramaFever had 100,000 subscribers and was bought for $100M by softbank (there is no question it was bought for $100M, the only question is if they had 100,000 subscribers when bought).
Dove is also in a much, much larger market than Korean drama as Drama Fever was.
CIDM should be a multibagger based on Dove Channel alone.
This thing has an enterprise value of 217 million yet trades under 20 million. They should be getting a $8 million settlement too soon. In addition to all the things you noted... the problem is their management barely ever releases PRs... so this stock is just an unknown for now. Earnings may bump it, hard to say.
This dream of hitting 30 bucks is the same dream that NEWL holders rode down continually all year. Just now that it is halted they think it can happen all at once.
Sad, very sad. This stock had horrible, horrible, aweful, unbelievably bad financials, but the only thing people who think it can go back up will reference is non-existent shorts and the price history "Hey look it USED to be $8000 so it is not a lot to ask for it to go to $10 again"... not realizing it went there due to toxic dilution from toxic financing...
Who is that individual? Apologies for what may seem like an obvious question, I stepped away from trading for a long time but have kept this stock in my IRA, a bit saddened to see the SP trend, but I knew the risk when I got in. TIA
Could bounce at 70, that is where there is support on the chart.
Nice to see us breaking out of this range finally
Weak Retail Sales Means Fed Tapering Later vs. Sooner
Daily Ticker
This is the headline on Yahoo Finance today. And we are seeing many other articles saying the same thing. The last couple of weeks crash in gold was mainly due to fear of a taper, and since that has been reversed the market is back at all time highs, and gold is slowly trickling back up.
Add to that the seasonal strength of gold in July and August and gold should at least stay stable at these levels if not go up. ACH but that is how it looks.
Dude Diligence, does Stockcharts have a scan that tells you all of the Down Hard stocks? Is it a member only thing?
You forgot to put (old) next to (simple bearish), that is an article that is weeks old and still talks about the taper from the Fed. Did you not notice how the overall market hit NEW ALL TIME HIGHS since then due to the Fed saying "Dont worry my little cheap cash crack addicts, we are gonna keep it coming"? That is why both gold and the market are bouncing.
The chart says gold has a bit to bounce, maybe $70 which could be extremely good for the miners and thus NUGT too. But it sounds like you are new to trading in which case listening to me or anyone on these boards is just like spinning the roulette wheel. I would suggest grabbing a copy of Nison's book Japanese Candlestick Charting and learning how to read a chart and go from there, that was best single investment I ever made in learning how to trade.
Are we there yet?
Volume shows a capitulation bottom and now you have a double bottom confirmed.
I say NUGT keeps going up till Gold hits the resistance around 1370 or so.
I'm up 75% already with these calls, so not sure I will hold them all the way till August. Id like to see gold hit its resistance level from its inverse cup and handle breakdown, that would be the ideal sell point. So maybe we can both make money, good luck!
Ben just TOLD everyone to buy gold again, the selloff recently was all due to them thinking he said SELL. July and August seasonally strong for gold anyway. Its a no brainer, not sure why people are debating, but its cool, I have 55% gain in NUGT calls today and its just the beginning
NUGT cranking AH, Fed said stimulus still needed, Gold also going into traditionally strong months of July and August, all aboard!!!
I'm am more generally talking about the share price anywhere in this .09 to .12 range. A lot of people here that supposedly have XXX,XXX shares and still buying more all the time, and so many thinking we are going to get a settlement in the next month, yet for all this, here we are.
Just made me think, yes there is some intraday manipulation, but so far ever since the first negative judgement from Amy, no bounce past where she made her judgement despite even an appeal, which if anything I thought would make the price go HIGHER. Yet, here we are. The market as a whole is speaking with its wallet, or lack thereof as the case may be.
Still long, but I cant deny that the lack of buying is a bit concerning. Know what Im sayin pard? BTW, what does pard mean?
.09 sheesh, what does the market know that we dont?
Why not just use Finviz website to check the actual gold futures?
Only if you rob a bank for 232K at the same time since that trade actually turns 1K into 28K. Still pretty good, I would take it!
Probably $5.80 instead of $3.8 based on that close, damn strong rally. I decided to not fight the tape, and also the idea that Egypt could cause oil prices and thus gold prices to go up too. NUGT calls up 12% already. That hammer and lower low say NUGT is going up.
OK, $3.8, how do you figure that? Fib extension, etc.?
Is $3 the next new low? The big question we need to answer is WHERE it will bottom on the next downleg. I caught the dead cat bounce, would like to do it again on the next new low, watching... some here are saying gold sells off on Fridays and Mondays, I need to verify that, if so Monday might be a place to pick this us for a bounce...
Due Dilligence, I cant get my 60 ema lines to look like yours. It actually seems like something is weird about yours, they are flat and dont curve down the way it seems they should ?
Truthbible is out of DUST per his posts in NUGT board, now in NUGT.
Yes, very good explanation, does make it easier to understand than my long winded one
The reason 3X ETFs are not good long term investments is that there is natural decay built into them. They do not just simply track the movements of a given index 3X. Part of the problem is the fees that the fund charges, they are not just creating these for a hobby. If you read the prospectus, there are always hidden fees. Then there is the fact that they get some kind of exponential decay when the market goes against them even briefly. NUGT so far is a clear example of that.
Here is an article that tries to explain it further. It talks about a year where FAS was down like 40% when the financials were actually UP 13% over the course of the year. They are great while a strong trend lasts over weeks to maybe a few months, but they quickly lose their luster, as holders of DUST are soon to find out...
http://winninginvestor.quickanddirtytips.com/the-dangers-of-investing-with-3x-leveraged-etfs.aspx
Gold futures up 1% now, nice nice I knew today was a good day to get in NUGT!
Gold futures moving up about .7% right now, decent bounce for the moment.
Ah OK, just wanted to clarify. Clearly you know what you are doing to have caught this move in DUST. I guess we are just debating timing then
Truthbible, do you understand how these 3X ETF's trade? If you say the highest NUGT will trade is $7, that means a 54% gain for NUGT, BUT ALSO A 54% LOSS FOR DUST because they are inverse ETFs. So, $164 goes to $82 in that case, not the best "long term investment" if you get my drift...
In all likelihood, NEITHER of these ETFs DUST OR NUGT is a good long term play, that is the nature of 3X ETFs, they are TRADING VEHICLES, not long term investments. They both will decay naturally due to fees, etc. If you catch them right, they can be great. I am new here and it sounds like you may have caught DUST right, if so CONGRATULATIONS! But dont expect it to be a "great long term investment" from THESE levels!
Goldman says 1300 by end 2013, so actually up from here for GLD if they are right, the $1050 prediction from them is for end of 2014. I think NUGT near term has max 25% down, and easily 50 to 100% upside. DUST actually only has $4 more upside based on the chart pattern breakout target, so my thought is it tops out around $170 or so near term.
I define 50% as a monstrous rally, yes Anyway, I gotta admit that it may still be early, but I just got two doubles on VIX calls in the last 30 days so I might be more aggressive than usual. Lets see what happens!
Yeah, not sure if I would average down just yet, today for me was just initiating a position in NUGT. Congrats on playing the last bounce though, I was not even looking at it then!
I just still think there could be some 20% up days coming to this, I mean 2 of the top 3 GDX holdings are trading where they were when gold was 450, and the other of the top 3 is trading where it was when gold was 600 or so. July begins seasonally strong gold, so seems like good risk reward to jump in here and see what happens!