Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[tokyopua]

This is a likely multibagger from here. Takeda spent about 2X current AUPH market cap buying a preclinical drug that had not even gone through human trials yet!

AUPH on the other hand has just release blockbuster Phase 2b results, and their drug Voclosporin has been taken safely by more than ***2000 patients****. They achieved all primary and secondary endpoints.

The market for their drug is about 1.5 billion annually in just 3 regions of the world (US, Europe, and Japan), yet their market cap is presently a tenth of that.

Drug makers trade for 2 to 4X revenue, so this means a reasonable estimate for market cap once selling would be about 3 billion, or 20X higher than here.

The same team that is bringing this to market sold VPHM for 4.2 BILLION and another company for about a billion, so they have the track record and pedigree to do it again, as well as the results needed to do so.

The float is quite small, on the order of 17 million shares. Volume recently is through the roof, suggesting float is about to be locked. Investors realizing the MASSIVE potential of this drug are not selling, so the effective float is almost NIL.

A near term catalyst is expected to hit in the next couple of weeks, when the FDA replies to their application for Breakthrough Drug Status.

As we have seen, TBRA was purchased for 7X market cap at the same stage as AUPH is not in the approval process, so a partnership or buyout at any time is possible.

In summary, multibagger bullish outlook.