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Unlocking Silver’s Potential: Resistance Challenges and Breakout Signals
By: Bruce Powers | December 18, 2023
• Unlocking the potential for a silver breakout: Indicators align at 24.28, signaling a crucial juncture and setting the stage for a potential upward surge.
Silver reached a high of 24.28 last week before encountering minor resistance. The area of that high and consolidation of the past several days has further tested resistance around that price zone. It has some significance as there are several indicators pointing to resistance in the 24.28 area. The 50% retracement of the most recent downswing is at 24.20. Moreover, resistance of the 20-Day MA (purple) is at 24.05, very close to today’s high of 24.04, and it is joined by the higher downtrend line.
Three Indicators Highlight Price Zone
Notice that the 20-Day line is close to converging with the trendline. When two indicators mark a similar price area, they are intimating that there is some significance to that price area. In other words, it frequently is either strong resistance or marks a pivot for an upside breakout. Since two indicators mark the price level, the rally following the breakout is sometimes more aggressive.
Preparing for Eventual Test of 26.12 High
Silver is working on an eventual advance to new trend highs, following the August 29 bottom at 17.54. An advance above December’s high of 25.91 provides a sign of strength that should lead to a breakout above May’s high of 26.12. Once a daily close occurs above that May high, a bullish trend continuation signal is confirmed, and the rally should accelerate to the upside. It would signal a move away from a consolidation pattern that has been developing for more than six months. Note that a break above 24.28 is also a weekly breakout.
First Breakout Shows Potential of Upside Move
You can see the aggressive demand in the first trendline breakout that began on November 24. Silver accelerated higher before finding resistance at 25.91. A sharp move higher was followed by a fast decline and eventual retest of support at the long-term downtrend line (dark blue). That occurred at the recent swing low at 22.495.
Support Levels
A deeper retracement will be indicated on a drop below today’s low at 23.65. Subsequently, there is a range of possible support from around 23.39 to 23.18. It starts with the 50% retracement and ends with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. In between those two levels is the 50-Day MA at 23.32.
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Silver Continues to Dance Around $24
By: Christopher Lewis | December 18, 2023
• The silver market has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to dance around the $24 level.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Monday, as we are hanging around the $24 level, an area that has been very important for quite some time. Ultimately, silver has recently seen a lot of volatility, but it looks like we are trying to recover based perhaps mainly on the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to loosen up monetary policy. At the latest monetary policy meeting, the “top plot” showed several cuts for 2024, and therefore the US dollar should lose a little bit of value. If that’s going to be the case, that certainly helps precious metals.
Underneath, the 50-Day EMA is offering a little bit of support and is rising. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see that as a short-term floor in the market, but if we were to break down below there, the market is more likely than not going to continue to drop down to the 200-Day EMA. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and take out the highs of the Friday session, it could send silver looking toward the $26 level above.
That’s an area that has been a major resistance barrier in the past, and therefore I think it’s an area that will be difficult to overcome. If we were to break above that level, it would obviously be extraordinarily bullish, but I don’t expect to see that happen anytime soon. After all, we have seen a massive selloff from the high recently, and therefore it’s likely that we will struggle to get above there. That doesn’t mean we can’t, but it does make sense that the $26 level will be very difficult to get beyond.
All of this being said, you will need to keep an eye on the 10 year yield in the United States, because yields do have a negative correlation with silver most of the time, and that can be a bit of a leading indicator as to where we could go next. With that being said, one eye on the 10 year yield and another on the silver market makes quite a bit of sense.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 16, 2023
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside as it exceeded the previous high and penetrated the previous low yet closed within that previous trading range. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 24250. Therefore, this market closed below the opening print while also closing down from the previous closing.
One indicator typical technicians follow is the 200 day moving average which the market has just moved back above 1 day ago. That number rested today at 23602. Historically, this indicator is more broad-term in what it reveals. It can flip back to negative after a few days.
Clearly, this market has broken under the former broader cyclical support which now resides above the market at 24508 rendering it vulnerable to a further decline at this time. The market crossed that critical cyclical support eight sessions ago confirming a bearish trend and now only a rally back above this level would signal a reversal in the tone of the the market implying a rally ahead.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 22278 settling at 24386. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 23775 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 23796. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 24050 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 22546 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 23775
Previous... 22278
Tomorrow... 23796
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 26340. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23450 and overhead resistance forming above at 24225. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 26340, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 9 weeks reaching a high during the week of December 4th at 23245. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 13.49% in a stark panic type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 20850 as it has fallen back reaching only 4385 which still remains -78.9% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 26340 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 18697 and 28125. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of December 4th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 23880 made back during the week of October 16th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of September 18th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 20850 made the week of October 2nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23300. Additional support is to be found at 22230. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 21925 reaching 21925.
This market is trading below that high of May which was 26435 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Silver Continues the Rally
By: Christopher Lewis | December 14, 2023
• Silver rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we are breaking out above the $24 level.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we are now breaking above the $24 level. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see buyers on dips, as silver is benefiting from the Federal Reserve pivoting a bit during the previous session. Ultimately, the market looks as if it is trying to sort out what it’s going to do next, but I still think that silver goes much higher. At this point, it would not surprise me at all to see silver go all the way back to the highs that we tried to make a while back.
Underneath, the 50-Day EMA is hanging around the $23.50 level, and that could be your short-term support level. I don’t think that we have any real shot at pulling back to that level, but it is something to keep in the back of your mind just in case. Ultimately, the US dollar falling is going to have a major influence on silver, and of course the bond markets will as well as they typically do. Yields dropping helps silver, and that is certainly something that we could see continue now that it looks like the Federal Reserve might be cutting rates next year. If that’s going to be the case, then obviously precious metals will do quite well.
Any dip at this point in time should be thought of as a potential value, I think that’s how most traders will look at it. With this being the case, I like the idea of buying anything close to the $24 level, possibly even down to the 50-Day EMA, but I would not jump “all in” right away as silver does tend to be very volatile and position sizing is very crucial. In general, I think this is a market that will eventually get to the $25 level, and once it does we could see some psychological resistance. That being said, we have, a long way in a very short amount of time, so there could be exhaustion that offers the buying opportunity that many of you will now be looking for. Until then, caution and patience will be needed.
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What an explosion by Silver right through its 200D moving average
By: Barchart | December 13, 2023
• What an explosion by Silver right through its 200D moving average.
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Silver Attempts to Rally
By: Christopher Lewis | December 12, 2023
• The silver market rallied just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as it looks like the oversold condition may get some relief.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied ever so slightly during the early hours on Tuesday, showing signs of a potential recovery. At this point, the market looks as if it is completely oversold, and therefore a bounce does make a certain amount of sense. The 200-Day EMA sits just above, and it could offer a bit of resistance. If we were to break above there, then the market could open up the possibility of a move to the $23.50 level.
At this point, the market bouncing into that area does make a certain amount of sense, especially considering that the oversold condition almost certainly brings out value hunters. Furthermore, we also have central banks giving us interest rate decisions over the next couple of days, so that obviously will have an effect on the bond markets and therefore those who had shorted this market and made so much money over the last 4 or 5 sessions will be taking advantage of quick profits.
All things being equal, keep in mind that the silver market tends to be very noisy, and now that we have the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank all releasing interest-rate statements, press conferences, and more, it’s likely that the precious metals markets will get moving. If they start to sound soft, that probably helps gold and silver both. However, you also have to keep in mind that silver is also an industrial metal, so economic announcements showing that the global economy might be slowing also could work against silver at the same time.
Underneath, the $22 level offers significant support, while the next major resistance barrier is near the $24 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I would anticipate a lot of volatility in, so with that being said, the market is likely to continue to see quick moves, and therefore you need to keep your position size rather small because the next couple of sessions could be very dangerous if you are not careful. Ultimately, this is a situation that you need to be cautious, but at the end of the day, the reality is that we are oversold.
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Challenges in Silver: Analyzing Potential Reversal Amidst Declining Trends
By: Bruce Powers | December 11, 2023
• Silver hits a new low at 22.70, prompting speculation on whether today’s decline marks the end of the retracement, with indicators pointing to potential support.
Silver continued to retrace its prior advance today, reaching a new trend low of 22.70. That low is at a potential support area defined by both the internal uptrend line and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 22.73. Today is the sixth straight day of declines in silver. Could today’s low be the end of the correction?
Might Today’s Low Complete the Retracement?
It is possible that today’s low might be the bottom of the retracement. There are two indicators pointing to support near the low and the decline stopped in the support zone leading to an intraday bounce. If today’s support continues to hold, a bullish signal will be indicated on an advance above today’s high of 23.09. Potential resistance is also at the 50-Day MA (purple) at 23.08. Therefore, a rise above today’s high will also put silver back above its 50-Day line, providing an additional sign of strengthening.
Bounces into Resistance
Key resistance levels are around the prior swing high at 23.68. You can see how the area around that swing high led to consolidation for five days in November following the November 13 retracement low. Also, support was seen for one day on the way back down recently. Higher up is potential resistance around the 21-Day MA at 23.92, followed by a weekly level around 24.23.
Downward Pressure Remains Dominant
Regardless of the potential for a rally off today’s low, there are no signs of it yet. Silver has been coming down hard and barely hesitated before breaking below all potential support levels up until today. This behavior leaves support levels suspect. If a decline below today’s low of 22.70 triggers the likely target is another test of support at the long-term downtrend line (darker blue). Today it is around 22.45 or so. A little lower is the intersection of two trend lines at 22.32. Both the long-term downtrend and uptrend lines cross at that point. It should mark the maximum decline for the retracement.
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Silver Continues Its Plunge
By: Christopher Lewis | December 11, 2023
• Silver dropped yet again during the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we simply cannot find buyers.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has plunged lower again during the trading session on Monday, as we simply cannot find buyers for this market. That being said, the selloff has been so drastic that will be interesting to see how this plays out. The $22 level underneath should be massive support, and it certainly looks as if we are going to try to find our way down to that level. Rallies at this point in time would be looked at with suspicion, and as long as gold continues to fall, I just don’t see how silver does any better.
All of this being said, keep in mind that central banks meet this week, including the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and a few other minor ones. In other words, the interest rate markets may be very volatile, if that is going to be the case, it’s very likely that silver will suffer as a result. After all, silver is extraordinarily sensitive to interest rates in general.
Furthermore, the silver market is an industrial metal as well as a precious one, and therefore some of the selling might be due to the fact that everybody expects to see a rather nasty recession around the world. That being said, this is a situation where the market is likely to remain suspicious of rallies, and therefore I think we need to see some type of follow-through in order for buyers to step in and try to pick up “cheap silver.” Either way, the one thing that you do want to make sure you avoid at this point in time is going to be a lot of leverage, because under the best of circumstances silver tends to be extraordinarily volatile.
Quite frankly, these are not the best of circumstances and as we head toward the holidays, liquidity could start to be a major issue. With this being the case, the market is one that you need to be very cautious about, but clearly there should be some type of value proposition presenting itself sooner or later. The question of course is when does this happen, and are you going to be patient enough to take advantage of it?
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$Silver - The huge bearish engulfing candle and the close below the 20 week MA confirm that it made an intermediate term high this week. The next weekly cycle low is due on the 3rd week of January but may extend by a week or 2 depending on the timing of the next daily cycle low.
By: CyclesFan | December 9, 2023
• $Silver - The huge bearish engulfing candle and the close below the 20 week MA confirm that it made an intermediate term high this week. The next weekly cycle low is due on the 3rd week of January but may extend by a week or 2 depending on the timing of the next daily cycle low.
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Final Resistance for Gold & Silver
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | December 10, 2023
Gold has pulled back after a mini-blow-off on Monday that followed a new monthly and weekly all-time high.
It had cleared monthly resistance at $2000 and weekly resistance near $2030 before surging intraday to over $2100. Gold has settled in the $2000s with strong support, around $2000.
Although Gold has not broken out on the daily chart, the monthly and weekly breakout is more significant and implies a daily breakout will eventually follow.
SentimenTrader.com published a chart that can give us insight into the time of eventually.
This chart plots points at which Gold hit a new 52-week high but reversed lower as much as 2% or more.
These points include multiple points from 2001 to 2003, the 2006 and 2007 interim peaks, a peak before Covid, and one in early 2022.
The points in 2001, 2002, and 2003 are the best comparisons because those were early in a new secular bull market, and the gold price was much less overbought than in 2006 and 2007. Those four points bottomed at or around the 200-day moving average one or two months after the reversal.
Gold has support at $1985 to $2000, and its 200-day moving average, at $1960, should reach $1985 in January 2024. Also, note the last line of resistance near $2100.
It is easy to see why $2100 is the last stand for Gold bears. Why $26 is the last stand for Silver is more nuanced.
The $26 level is an important historical pivot point (first rally after the 1980 crash, major support after the 2011 peak, and resistance over the past two years) and marks the 50% retracement of the move from the all-time highs to early 1990s lows.
A clear break of $26 projects to a measured upside target of $33-$34, and there is very little resistance to $50.
Gold has already made a new monthly and weekly all-time high, but there is no looking back once the market clears $2100.
And that breakout will lead to Silver breaking above $26.
These are the final resistance levels before a full-blown, raging bull market in precious metals.
Get positioned during this weakness because share prices could accelerate much higher before next spring.
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Gold & Silver Outlook After Contrived Flushout...
By: Clive Maund | December 9, 2023
PM sector investors have just been royally played – first they are encouraged to pile in on gold’s breakout to new highs, which occurred when it was already very overbought, and now they are being pressured into barfing their holdings before the sector turns around and then goes on to break out for real.
Here’s how powerful forces set the trap – and this, incidentally, is why in this age of instant communications it takes them 3 days to report the latest COT data after they are in possession of it – during the week before gold’s dramatic but short-lived breakout last weekend, and after the COT data cut off point at Tuesday’s close, they piled on massive short positions, especially in silver. Then, after allowing gold to break out briefly overnight Sunday - Monday, they tank the gold price in very thin trading, instantly destroying the bullish sentiment so that would be investors pull their bids and the price plummets. They did the same with silver.
Now we come to the 2nd part of their game to wrong-foot the majority of investors in the sector and fleece them not just once but twice – they force prices low enough so that the pain becomes unbearable and longs barf their holdings, which Big Money then happily scoops up at knockdown prices before the sector turns on a dime and goes roaring back up again. This is my take on it and I may be wrong. I believe that those who engineered these moves will cover their shorts with huge profits going into this week and reverse to long and we will see prices stabilize before they recover.
We were not caught out by all this because we were buying large and mid-cap golds well before gold’s failed breakout and then sat and watched, and started buying some additional stocks we wanted anyway last week as they dropped back to better prices. Our plan now is to use the current reaction to move in and make additional purchases of the best stocks. The article GOLD SILVER and GDX outlook after turnaround yesterday posted on site last Tuesday 5th gave the downside target areas for gold and silver for this correction and gold has now fallen into its target area, with silver dropping a bit beyond where we expected, which looks like a deliberate attempt to flush out those of little faith.
But here’s the thing – although gold made a failed breakout attempt, the breakouts by large and mid-cap gold stocks have not failed - on the contrary, what we have seen so far is a normal post breakout reaction back to the support at the upper boundary of the base patterns that they broke out of, which means that this is a great place to buy them.
Here’s an example, Agnico Eagle Mines. Does this look like a failed breakout to you? – it doesn’t to me. Just look at it – persistent heavy volume on the clear breakout from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom late last month causing its Accumulation line to soar, followed by a normal reaction back to support at the upper boundary of the base pattern. So while the MSM are trumpeting the failed breakout of “the barbarous relic” what I see here is a near-perfect buy spot for this stock, and many others. It could drop back a little more in coming days perhaps dipping into the top of the base pattern which will make it even more of a buy.
Want another example? – try this for size. After its Accumulation line trended higher for months, mid-cap gold Minera Alamos’ stock staged a spectacular breakout from a Double Bottom late last month on strong volume. It too has reacted back to the perfect buying area close to the top of its base pattern. There are many more examples, especially among the large and mid-caps, but you get the idea.
So don’t let the MSM (mainstream financial media) con you into turning over your holdings to Big Money here right before the sector turns around and goes marching higher again because next time gold tries to break above the key $2100 level it’s likely to succeed and usher in the major bullmarket that we continue to expect. They fooled a lot of people with that false breakout, even “old hands” like Adam Hamilton who must be cringing after posting Gold-Record Momentum which appears to have been written at the false breakout high. Overall though, Hamilton should be proved right in due course – he usually is - after the sector has recovered from this nasty Big Money contrived hiccup which is viewed as providing a last golden opportunity to buy the sector and add to positions, especially in the big gold stocks which are at a “dream” entry point on post breakout reactions.
So get to it.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 9, 2023
At this time, the NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 23276. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into December reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 26340 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 21925. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 25660.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23470 and support forming below at 23240. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 26340 to 23245. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 26340 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21270 and 25434. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 4th reaching 26340 has exceeded the previous high of 23880 made back during the week of October 16th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of September 18th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. We have seen a rally thus far from the last low of 21925 for the past 3 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 21925. Additional support is to be found at 22645. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 21925 reaching 21925.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Silver Plunges for the Week
By: Christopher Lewis | December 8, 2023
• Silver has been absolutely hammered during the course of the trading week, after initially kicking off with a boom on Monday.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Monday featured a “blow off top” in the silver market, and we have done nothing but sell off drastically since then. That being the case, it looks like the big money has abandoned the silver market, and it’s very likely that we continue to get lower from here. Short-term rallies will most certainly be sold into, and now I think the $24 level makes a massive barrier that we would have to overcome to even think remotely along the lines of buying this market.
The size of the candlestick is rather telling, and this could be the beginning of something rather ugly for silver going forward. That being said, we are also at the end of the year essentially, and that means that liquidity could be a major issue. If liquidity starts to drop off, then you have a situation where silver could be rather wild. Either way, position sizing is going to be crucial, and you do need to be cautious with the idea of getting to overly exposed to this market. Quite frankly, most big traders probably dump their positions on Friday, and are just simply standing out of the way. The market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked of it, so at this point I think you are probably better off as a longer-term trader just simply waiting until January to get involved.
Pay attention to the bond market, because interest rates will have a negative correlation to silver, just as the US dollar will. We could get erratic movement due to the lack of liquidity, so keep that in mind, and recognize the fact that you may be better off leaving this alone.
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GOLD SILVER and GDX outlook after turnaround yesterday...
By: Clive Maund | December 6, 2023
After the rather dramatic reversal in gold and silver yesterday it is clearly in order that we review their charts as soon as possible to consider what this action portends.
There was a story going about that a group of speculators last week took out heavy short positions in silver after the cut off date for the COTs on Tuesday, as it takes 3 days for them to get around to reporting the COT data, which delay is in the writer’s opinion intentional to provide a window for just this kind of operation.
However that may be, we had already flagged the $2100 level on gold as being critical some time ago – gold has to break clear above this level to kick off the next major bullmarket phase. It broke clear above this critical level in the Asian trade Sunday night whereupon it looks like powerful forces stepped in, in light trading conditions, to knock it back down below this level and their success in doing this caused it to drop back further during the day yesterday. Rather surprisingly PM stocks were not heavily impacted by all this as we can see on the GDX chart below, which is viewed as positive.
Even though the forces that don’t want gold going up were successful yesterday, all they succeeded in doing was postponing the inevitable and a big reason that they got away with it is that gold and silver were already overbought going into the weekend. Next time gold tries to break above this critical level it is likely to do so from a position of more strength.
So, what now? After a reversal day like we saw yesterday it is normal for some sort of correction to ensue and what is thought likely to happen is that gold and silver react back further in a zigzag pattern towards their positively aligned moving averages to the oval target areas drawn on their respective charts before they stabilize and turn higher again. However, the key point to keep in mind is that once gold succeeds in breaking above the key $2100 level it’s on and we just had a clear demonstration of how important this level is on Monday when the “big guns” were brought in to stop it holding a breakout above this level – and they won’t be so successful in future.
As for stocks, the GDX chart still looks strong with a genuine breakout from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom having occurred about a week ago that was on strong volume, driving its Accumulation line steeply higher. So it doesn’t look like they will react back much – GDX showed resilience and didn’t drop back by much yesterday considering the drop in the metals – so it is expected to drop back to the support shown and if it does drop back further into the base pattern it shouldn’t be by much before it stabilizes and turns higher again and any such drop will be viewed as presenting a great buying opportunity.
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Silver Continues to Attempt Stabilization
By: Christopher Lewis | December 7, 2023
• The silver market has gone back and forth during trading on Thursday, as we continue to try to stabilize just below the crucial $24 level.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been choppy on Thursday as we are trying to sort out whether or not we can continue to go higher, or if the rally is over. The recent selloff has been quite brutal, and it is most certainly overdone. If we can get a daily close above $24, then I think we have a shot at a recovery toward the $25.50 level over a significant amount of time. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday it opens up the possibility of a move to the 50-Day EMA.
All things being equal, this is a situation where you have a lot of noisy behavior, and of course silver is a market that is very noisy under the best of circumstances, and right now we are not in the best of circumstances. The oversold condition of silver is certainly something to behold, because we have seen so much in the way of volatility in the precious metals markets, but as interest rates continue to fall in the United States, that should help silver overall, therefore I think you’ve got a real shot at some type of significant rally in this market. Furthermore, there will be people out there looking to pick up “cheap silver” after they may have missed this massive rally that got us up to this area to begin with. Because of this, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a potential buying opportunity but you need to see momentum shoot back to the upside in order to take advantage of it.
If we were to turn around break down below the 50-Day EMA, that would obviously be a very negative turn of events, and therefore open up a drop down to potentially the 200-Day EMA. The 200-Day EMA will obviously attract a lot of attention as it is considered to be a longer-term technical support level, and of course to determine the overall trend. It will fire off a lot of algorithms, and cause chaos in the markets. That being said, we are a long way from there right now, so I still like the idea of finding enough value to start buying again.
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Silver Attempts to Stabilize
By: Christopher Lewis | December 6, 2023
• Silver has been somewhat quiet during the trading session on Wednesday, sitting just above the $24 level.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, as we are hanging about just above the $24 level. The $24 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, in an area that previously had been important. Now that we are trading the Wednesday session, we will have to pay close attention to the idea of the market trying to find its footing, as it has broken down rather significantly. All things being equal, the market has sold off so drastically that I would assume that sooner or later people are willing to pick up a little bit of value in this silver pits.
If we do break down below the $24 level, it could be a sign that we are ready to drop down to the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA is an indicator that will attract a lot of attention, especially as it is rising. All things being equal, this is a market that I think value hunters will return, but the next day or 2 might be somewhat quiet. After all, we have the jobs number coming out and that will have a major influence on the bond market.
The bond market of course has a major influence on silver, as rising rates tends to work against it. All things being equal, this is a situation where the next couple of days could give us an idea as to where we are going longer term, especially as the market has been so noisy as of late. If we do break down from here, then we could see a little bit of a bounce, but if we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then we could start to see a significant breakdown. I don’t see that happening anytime soon, but it is something you need to keep in the back of your mind. If we turn around and break above the $24.50 level, that’s also a sign that we are ready to continue to the upside and perhaps challenge the highs again. Either way, keep your position size reasonable as this market is noisy at the moment, even more so now that the Monday trading session has come and gone.
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Silver prices dip as U.S. economic data signals potential Fed tightening
By: Investing | December 5, 2023
NEW YORK - Silver prices edged lower today, with XAG/USD trading near $24.18 as the market reacted to a mix of US economic indicators that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
The US ISM Services PMI outperformed expectations with a reading of 52.7, suggesting continued expansion in the service sector. However, this positive sentiment was dampened by the JOLTs Job Openings report, which showed a disappointing 8.73 million job openings compared to the anticipated 9.3 million.
This combination of data points to a potential tightening of Fed policy ahead of its December meeting as investors assess mixed signals from the labor market. US Treasury yields experienced a slight recovery, and the Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 103.75, even though there was an overall drop in daily yields.
Investors are now looking forward to additional labor market data for further clues on the Fed's next move, with Wednesday's ADP Employment Change report and Friday's critical labor metrics, including Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Nonfarm Payrolls.
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Silver Continues to Drift Lower
By: Christopher Lewis | December 5, 2023
• The silver markets got a horrific beating on Monday, and now it looks like we are going to continue to drift a bit lower on Tuesday. That being said, we now have to start asking whether the trend has changed?
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Unfortunately for retail traders, many of them take a look at the chart and try to predict price based solely upon a candlestick. That being said, a lot of people got hurt on Monday, as precious metals took off almost immediately. We have seen the market turn around and break rather significantly to the downside, and if you watched my analysis during the day yesterday, you recognize that I said we probably have further to go. After all, a nasty candlestick like the one we formed on Monday very rarely happens in a vacuum.
I suspect that we are probably going to drift toward the $24 level underneath, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen some resistance previously. If we do fault in that area and bounce, I’m comfortable buying silver at that point. However, silver traders are focusing on the bond market, so unless you have an eye on the 10 year yield in the United States, you are probably going to be “flying blind” in this market. Because of this, I think there will be plenty of traders down there willing to try to find “cheap silver”, but it might be closer to that $24 level, possibly even the 50-Day EMA after that.
If we were to turn around and break above the $25 level without doing so, then it would obviously be a very bullish sign, but we had been so overbought for the last couple of days and of course we have seen this massive selloff after that, suggesting that we are in desperate need of some type of value to come back into the market.
Because of this, you have to be very cautious with your position sizing and recognize that the type of volatility we could be seen in the short time is something worth paying close attention to. With that being the case, you need to be very cautious with the idea of buying silver, but I think if you are patient enough, you probably have an opportunity coming.
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Breaking Down Silver’s Rally: Assessing Corrections, Retracements, and the Path Forward
By: Bruce Powers | December 4, 2023
• Silver’s surge to 25.91 hit a snag with a wide outside day, signaling potential retracement. What’s next for this volatile market?
After reaching a new trend high of 25.91 early in Monday’s trading session, silver reversed lower, generating a very wide outside day. At the time of this writing, the low of the day is 24.40 and today’s range is outside the trading range of the prior four days. The initial rally earlier today completed a rising extended ABCD pattern at 25.70. This is where the AB leg of the rally is extended by the Fibonacci ratio 127.2%, to define a target for the CD leg.
RSI Turns Down Following 25.91 Peak
Today’s low has almost completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which occurs at 24.36. Nevertheless, given today’s clear bearish reversal, at least so far, a test of support around the downtrend line looks very likely and possibly the previous swing high of 23.68. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows momentum turning down after being in overbought territory the past few days and points to a deeper retracement. You can see that last time the RSI showed a similar or higher overbought reading was back on the April 13, peak.
Monthly Breakout Triggered Last Friday
A monthly upside breakout was triggered on Friday and confirmed with a daily close above last month’s high of 25.27. Yet, today’s price action indicates that this current rally may be done for now, leading to further retracements or consolidation. Additional price levels to watch for possible support include last week’s low of 24.23, the 50% retracement level at 23.89, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 23.41, which matches the price level of the 200-Day MA.
Recent Bullish Improvements
Nonetheless, the relatively sharp advance off the recent swing low at 21.865 looks like a change in sentiment that may be in its early stages. The 20-Day MA recently crossed back above the 200-Day MA reflecting a strengthening trend. Further, an upside breakout above the short downtrend line has been confirmed over multiple days, which also confirms a breakout of a falling trend channel that starts from the May 2023 high.
Notice that today’s high in silver put it well above the long-term downtrend line (darker blue). It was the highest price relative to the downtrend line since silver first moved above the line earlier this year, on April 4. Once the current correction is complete, the stage is set for a continuation higher. Prior to the beginning of the correction begun in 2021, silver had risen by 165.8% in only 99 trading days. Its recent breakout opens the door to similar aggressive demand, as a possibility.
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Silver Has Been All Over The Place Monday
By: Christopher Lewis | December 4, 2023
• Silver has been all over the place during the trading session on Monday, as the initial opening for the trading week has seen quite a bit of volatility in the precious metals complex.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver initially took off to the upside at the start of the week, only to plunge lower, testing the $25 region. That being said, the market has been very noisy since then, so it’s difficult to get a gauge on where we are going next. The RSI had been in the oversold condition, so the fact that we plunged probably wasn’t a huge surprise considering that we were also at resistance, but the market does look like it is trying to turn around in the middle the day and I think this brings to light a very important point: Volatility is going to be a major issue in this market, so you need to be very cautious with your position sizing. While I do not advocate shorting this market, you can make a huge argument that we are overbought.
At this point, we are also going to start seeing the bond markets try to dictate where we go next. It currently looks as if the Fed Bonds Futures markets are trying to price in rate cuts by March, which of course means loose monetary policy might be on the horizon. If that’s the case, that typically works for precious metals. However, it is crucial to understand that the market had gotten a bit stretched, so some profit-taking would make sense regardless of what the bond markets tell us.
As we head into the month of December, liquidity starts to become a bit of an issue as well, so that’s also something that is most certainly worth paying attention to. At this point, silver is probably a market that’s better left alone, but if we were to break above the highs of the day on Monday, then obviously we would have much further to go to the upside. From a longer-term standpoint, I think you have to look at this as a buying opportunity on dips, but as I watched the charts I see the markets jumping all over the place in New York trading, showing you just how volatile this market is probably going to end up being.
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$Silver - The next 4 year cycle high is due in the summer of 2024. There are 2 potential targets: 1. The C=A measured moved from the March 2020 low at 35.77. 2. The 1.618 extension of the August 2020-September 2022 decline at 37.47. The breakout above 30 should happen only in Q2.
By: CyclesFan | December 1, 2023
• $Silver - The next 4 year cycle high is due in the summer of 2024. There are 2 potential targets: 1. The C=A measured moved from the March 2020 low at 35.77. 2. The 1.618 extension of the August 2020-September 2022 decline at 37.47. The breakout above 30 should happen only in Q2.
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The Silver Surge continues as it jumps to its highest price since early May with an 8 day winning streak on the most active contract
By: Barchart | December 1, 2023
• The Silver Surge continues as it jumps to its highest price since early May with an 8 day winning streak on the most active contract
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 2, 2023
At this time, the NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 25857. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into December reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25940 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 21925. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 25700.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 25445.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 27th at 25940, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 25940 to 24320. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25940 made 0 week ago. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 27th reaching 25940 has exceeded the previous high of 23880 made back during the week of October 16th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 21925 reaching 21925.
This market is trading beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 2 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Silver Continues to Threaten $25
By: Christopher Lewis | November 30, 2023
• Silver continues to be very bullish overall, but we are struggling with the crucial $25 level, an area that is obviously a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been relatively quiet during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to threaten the $25 region. This is an area that has been important more than once, so it would not surprise me at all to see a bit of a fight here. The market will continue to struggle in general, but I think given enough time, we will see more of a “buy on the dip” attitude come back into it. It’s worth noting that we formed a shooting star during the trading session on Wednesday, so it shows a huge amount of resistance just above coming into the forefront.
It’s important to consider that silver’s value is significantly influenced by several external factors, such as market dynamics related to bond markets and what they are doing. Quite frankly, the interest rates in America rising would hurt silver but recently we’ve seen them falling, and that’s exactly what you are seeing in pricing this market. With this, you need to keep an eye on the 10 year yield, because if it starts to turn back around and rise, that probably puts a significant amount of pressure on the silver market.
Furthermore, you have to pay attention to industrial demand, something that of course causes quite a bit of external pressure on the market as silver is used in a lot of the new “green technologies.” There are a lot of questions right now about the global economy, so I suspect that a lot of the pressure in the silver market probably has more to do with the interest rate situation and of course the desire to protect wealth in a very uncertain environment.
With this, I anticipate that short-term pullbacks are likely, but they probably offer buying opportunities all the way down to the $24 level. If we were to break down below the $24 level, it would be a bit more serious, but right now, when you look at the RSI, you can see we are pressuring the oversold condition as well. It’s a bit stretched for my liking at the moment.
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Silver Gives Up Early Gains
By: Christopher Lewis | November 29, 2023
• Silver initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but then turned around to show signs of exhaustion again. Quite frankly, silver is overdone.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back gains as we broke above the $25 level. Quite frankly, this is a market that has gotten far too ahead of itself, and it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see hesitation at this point. That’s not to say that we can’t go higher, but the reality is that the market has gotten too far ahead of itself. The market could drop all the way down to the $24 level, and still be very bullish. Quite frankly, it’s not overly surprising that the market pulls back from here, because quite frankly everything has gotten overdone. The markets are out of control at the moment, and a little bit of reality needs to come back into the picture.
Furthermore, when you look at the gold market, it is testing an area that’s been a lot of trouble multiple times in the past as well. Because of this, it’s very likely that we will continue to see buyers jump in and push this market to the upside, and even if they were to do so, the reality is only so many people are left to buy silver. You are better off waiting for some type of value, which can only come in the form of a pullback. Even if we don’t pullback, at the very least I think it makes quite a bit of sense to go sideways for a while, as people digest these gains.
All of that being said, the reality is that if the bond market starts to turn back around, we could very well see silver get punished as interest rates rise in the United States. The silver market is extraordinarily sensitive to interest rates rising, which puts a lot of downward pressure on the metal. Furthermore, we have to worry about industrial demand, something that could be falling due to the economy slowing down. That being said, expect a lot of volatility but that will be nothing new due to the inherent volatile and erratic nature of the silver market to begin with.
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Silver Unusual Options Trade Alert: 75,000 $SLV 31 Strike Calls for March 2024 Expiry were purchased on the ask for 0.12 with open interest of only 900. Total premium outlay of $900,000 on this trade!
By: Barchart | November 28, 2023
• Silver Unusual Options Trade Alert
75,000 $SLV 31 Strike Calls for March 2024 Expiry were purchased on the ask for 0.12 with open interest of only 900. Total premium outlay of $900,000 on this trade!
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Silver Continues To See Buoyancy
By: Christopher Lewis | November 28, 2023
• Silver had a very quiet trading session on Tuesday as we digest gain.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been very quiet during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see support underneath, but more importantly, significant resistance above. The $25 level is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we’ve seen selling pressure. Beyond that, we have the $25.50 level as well, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where we probably have to pull back just a bit in order to find support. Underneath there, we have the $24 level offering support as well, as it had previously been resistance. The 50-Day EMA is breaking above the 200-Day EMA, kicking off a “golden cross.”
In general, this is a situation where I think we look for value, then take advantage of it. Remember that silver is highly sensitive to the interest rate situation, especially in the United States. If the 10 year yield continues to drift lower, that will probably help silver along the way, and then of course we have the US dollar itself offering a significant amount of negative correlation at the same time. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that silver is not only a precious metal, but also an industrial one. In light of this scenario, the recession will exert downward pressure on the demand for silver, resulting in a negative impact on its price.
All things being equal, this market has shot straight up in the air, and I think that there are plenty of buyers willing to take advantage of it if it offers value, and that pullback should be rather interesting to pay attention to as well. If we break above the $25.50 level, then silver could take off to the upside in a massive momentum trade.
The previous couple of candlesticks before the Tuesday session showed a lot of momentum, and I think at this point it’s probably only a matter of time before those traders out there that have not been involved will try to take advantage of what is obviously a very bullish market. The one thing that could keep the market down is the Federal Reserve, and the ability to keep monetary policy tight or not. All things being equal, expect a lot of volatility but that’s nothing new for this market.
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Silver closes at highest price since August
By: Barchart | November 27, 2023
• Silver closes at highest price since August.
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Silver Surges: Bullish Momentum Targets Key Resistance Levels
By: Bruce Powers | November 27, 2023
• Today’s advance in silver not only confirms a breakout but also positions the metal above a long-term downtrend line, hinting at sustained bullish momentum.
Silver reached its next higher target zone today with the completion of an ABCD pattern at today’s high of 24.86 (D). The actual completion is at 24.88, only 2 cents away and close enough. Subsequently, resistance was seen with the price of silver pulling back intraday. Today’s advance is the second bullish day following a breakout of a trendline that triggered last Friday.
Complete of ABCD Pattern at Today’s High
The completion of the rising ABCD pattern shows where the CD leg of the advance matches the price appreciation seen in the first leg up in the AB leg. It reflects the tendency for financial markets to show similarity between swings. The initial target completion identifies a pivot or decision point. Price may begin to retrace, move into consolidation, or break through the pivot reflecting strength.
Series of Monthly Targets Follows
Today’s high begins a potential resistance zone that goes up to around the 25.00 swing high and monthly high from June. It is quickly followed by the 25.25 swing high and monthly high from July 2023. The more significant monthly high is at 26.12 from May. Each of these price areas is a potential target now that silver is trending up again. May’s high is marked as more significant because a bullish trend continuation signal is triggered on a move above that high. The uptrend that began from the September 2022 swing low of 1,754 previously encountered resistance in that price area. It was followed by a five-month correction that bottomed out in October.
Long Term Bullish Signs for Silver Kick In
Given the larger bullish signs in silver, a deeper retracement from today’s high should find support above the downtrend line. Not only does today’s advance confirm the trendline breakout but it also shows a breakout from the declining correction that began from the May highs. Further, it puts silver well above the long-term downtrend line that comes down from the February 2021 swing high at 30.08.
The initial breakout above the long-term downtrend line triggered in early-April and was followed by a bearish correction into October.
Large Bull Flag in Play
What is interesting about silver on a long-term basis is the sharp advance that came before the top in August 2020 at 29.83. Characteristics of a large bull flag can be seen in this next weekly chart. Silver had risen by 165.8% in 20 weeks from the March 2020 swing low 11.22 to the August 2020 high. A second top was then put in at the February 2021 high. Recent price action is silver is showing a completion of the correction that followed the 2021 high. This means that aggressive demand may again show up in silver, like what was seen prior to the August 2020 peak.
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Silver Takes Off Again
By: Christopher Lewis | November 27, 2023
• The silver market has rallied rather significantly during the Monday session, as it looks like we are now racing toward the highs again.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Monday, as we continue the big move from Friday. As we broke above the $24 level, we have seen a lot of buyers jump into this market, perhaps in the “FOMO trade” that silver tends to bring in from time to time. After all, silver does tend to be extraordinarily volatile, and therefore you need to be cautious with your silver position size.
Short-term pullbacks at this point should be buying opportunities, especially with the obvious support level underneath. The 50-Day EMA is starting to cross back above the 200-Day EMA, so we could also start to see some longer term traders look at this through the prism of having the “golden cross” kickoff. I think short-term pullbacks will offer opportunities and that’s probably the best way to trade this market.
However, you have to keep in mind that the markets will be very cautious when it comes to the momentum, and of course silver has a lot of external effects in its markets. For example, interest rates in the United States have a major negative correlation. If interest rates in the US start to climb, that could put a little bit of negativity in this market. On the other hand, if those rates continue to drive, that could also add more demand for silver in order to protect well. Beyond that, silver is also an industrial metal, so a lot of this will come down to perceived demand around the world.
In general, this is a situation where I think you see a lot of volatility, but you need to find value in order to get involved. Chasing the silver trade all the way up in this area is probably going to be very difficult. As far as selling is concerned, I don’t really have any interest in doing so at the moment, due to the fact that the momentum is so strong and therefore it’s likely that we continue to see this as a market that we need to see some type of value in order to get involved, which of course would come in the form of a dip.
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Silver Set Up For A Break-Out Trigger
By: Avi Gilburt | November 24, 2023
For a number of years, silver enthusiasts have been quite sullen due to the lagging price of silver, as gold had been taking the lead. Well, things seem set up to change.
As I write this, I am seeing two paths for silver to see a significant break out and the potential start of a large 3rd wave rally. As you can see on the attached 8-minute chart, the most immediate set-up presents us with a 1-2, i-ii structure off the November 13 low. The only issue I have with this potential, as I have outlined before, is the wave i would have to count as a leading diagonal, which is not a terribly reliable impulsive wave structure. So, the other potential is that we are in an ending diagonal c-wave of a larger wave 2. Ideally, this c-wave should hold the 22.75 region.
Alternatively, as I outlined over the weekend, if we are unable to hold the 22.75 support, and, instead, break down and follow through below 22.45, then it opens the door to the yellow count, pointing us down towards the 18 region for a larger degree 2nd wave completion. But, I really do not see that as the most likely outcome at this time.
Therefore, as long as we hold the 22.75 support, and then break out over the high of wave 1, it will likely trigger a larger degree break-out which can point us towards the 29 region quite quickly, which would signal the initiation of a major 3rd wave rally, which can last through most of 2024, ultimately taking us well north of 40 in silver for just this larger 3rd wave.
Gold is similarly postured, but gold is already in its 5th wave off the 2015 lows. And, I am seeking a 5th wave rally right now towards the 2100 region wave i of [3] of that 5th wave.
In GDX, I am looking for price to break out through the pivot outline on the 8-minute chart, which should signal that we are rallying in wave [iii] of wave [1], which can better be seen on the daily chart.
What I think we may glean from these charts is that we are on the cusp of a significant break out throughout the complex. But, what is even more evident is that such a break out will likely be lead by silver. Moreover, since this break out in silver will be an initial wave 3 break out, then all further pullbacks will be 4th waves of various degrees. This may allude to all the pullbacks in GDX and GC/GLD being shallow pullbacks, even though they may be 2nd waves of various degrees.
So, before we jump the gun, let’s see if silver can take out last week’s high, which would be a strong indication that this major break out could very well finally be in progress.
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Silver & Platinum Supply Deficits Steepen, Underpinning Prices
By: Mike Gleason | November 26, 2023
As markets reopen following the Thanksgiving holiday, investors are feeling thankful that interest rates are no longer rising.
Stocks, bonds, and precious metals have all gained ground in recent days as long-term rates have come down. Meanwhile, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark short-term rate in 2024 have risen.
Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting were released on Tuesday. They revealed policymakers intend to keep rates “restrictive” at current levels until inflation comes down further.
Despite giving no indication of cutting rates anytime soon, markets aren’t buying the Fed’s hawkish posturing. Traders in Fed funds futures are pricing in monetary easing next year starting in May. They currently expect four rate cuts before the end of 2024.
That’s reflective of a strong likelihood of recession next year amid deteriorating economic conditions. The recession by some measures may have already begun. The leading economic index fell again in October, marking a new low for the year in the LEI. Tighter credit conditions combined with persistently high inflation are crimping consumer spending as well as business investment.
For now, though, the stock market is flush with cash as investors see reason for optimism at least through the holiday season.
Gold, meanwhile, continues to oscillate around the $2,000 level. As of this Friday recording, the monetary metal comes in at $2,010 per ounce – up 0.9% since last Friday’s close.
Turning to the white metals, silver shows a weekly gain of 2.3% to bring spot prices to $24.46 per ounce. Platinum is jumping 2.9% to trade at $946. And finally, palladium is up 1.8% this week at $1,110 per ounce.
Looking ahead, metals markets could benefit from a bearish combination of headwinds in the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate – namely falling interest rates and a slowing economy.
They also stand to get a lift from bullish supply and demand fundamentals. Supply shortfalls are emerging across the metals space. Deficits are becoming especially large in silver, platinum, and palladium in particular.
According to the 2023 World Silver Survey, demand outstripped supply last year by nearly 238 million ounces, representing a massive 20% deficit. Another large deficit is expected this year amid rising industrial demand and flat, at best, mining output.
An even more lopsided supply and demand imbalance is occurring in physical platinum. The World Platinum Investment Council reported this week that the platinum market is on track to post a record supply deficit of over 1 million ounces for 2023. Total supply is down 3% this year. Demand, meanwhile, is up a whopping 26% compared to last year.
The story behind falling platinum prices in recent years has been that automotive use in catalytic converters is going away. But that story doesn’t square with the fact that platinum demand is gaining from a variety of sources.
Meanwhile, as over 70% of mined platinum comes from South Africa, the supply outlook for the scarce metal is precarious. South Africa has been plagued by constant power blackouts that have hampered production of some of the country’s largest platinum and palladium mines.
Of course, the media continues to insist that post-Apartheid South Africa under one-party rule is a bastion of democracy.
But the reality is that South Africa can no longer keep the lights on. And as basic infrastructure fails, sky-high crime rates coupled with threats of land and business seizures by the highly corrupt government are driving talented entrepreneurs and technical workers to flee the country.
Meanwhile, institutionalized racism against whites has risen to even higher levels as the nation rushes headlong into Marxism and Wokeism, with new laws even making it illegal for larger South African businesses to hire people with lighter skin.
That all bodes poorly for the future of South Africa’s critical mining industry.
In other parts of the world, the political landscape is shifting to the right. This week elections in the Netherlands and Argentina delivered big victories to anti-establishment populists.
Free-market economist Javier Milei won Argentina’s presidential election. Derided in the media as a “far right libertarian” and a “madman,” Milei campaigned with a chainsaw in hand to represent his plans to cut government bureaucracy. He has also vowed to abolish the country’s central bank and link the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar in an effort to stamp out inflation.
Argentina was once known as the most prosperous country on the continent. But in recent years its economy has been wrecked by waves of inflation that have regularly exceeded 100% on an annual basis.
While the Federal Reserve note dollar has lost value at a much slower pace, it’s not exactly a sound and stable anchor for the Argentinian currency. Instead of being ripped off by Argentinian central bankers, citizens would see their purchasing power arbitrarily taken away by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Regardless of the shortcomings of some of his reform plans, Javier Milei has the potential to turn around a troubled country much like Nayib Bukele has done in El Salvador. In just a few short years, El Salvador went from one of the most dangerous countries on the planet to the safest on the continent and one that’s now open for business.
Bukele has championed Bitcoin as an alternative to U.S. dollar hegemony and invited cryptocurrency enthusiasts to move to El Salvador. While Bitcoin has its advantages, it’s also quite volatile and untested as a monetary reserve asset on par with gold.
Biden administration officials and establishment media outlets are trying to paint Bukele as a dictator despite the fact that he has a higher approval rating than any other major head of state.
Media mouthpieces are also freaking out over poll numbers that show Donald Trump running ahead of Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch. Behind the scenes, Democrat operatives are panicking over Biden’s sinking standing with voters. They are trying to nudge the 81-year-old incumbent to bow out gracefully so that California’s publicity seeking Governor Gavin Newsom can finally admit that he seeks to be the Democrat nominee for President.
It’s not just Biden’s perceived lack of energy and concerns over cognitive decline that are behind his bleak poll numbers. As shock elections in Europe and South America suggest, broader forces may be building for a voter backlash against the entrenched political left.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 25, 2023
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 24341 and is trading up about 1.25% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in November is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24395 intraday and is still trading above that high of 23880.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 24220.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 20th at 24395, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24395 to 23300. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24395 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21172 and 25318. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 20th reaching 24395 has exceeded the previous high of 23880 made back during the week of October 16th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in November, this market has held above last month's low of 20850 reaching 20850.
This market is trading below that high of May which was 26435 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
Silver Continues To Threaten A Breakout
By: Christopher Lewis | November 24, 2023
• The silver market rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we are trying to get to the $24 level.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, as it looks like we are ready to test the $24 level above. The $24 level is of course an area where we’ve seen a lot of noise in the past, so it would not be surprising at all to see this market pullback from there again. However, if we were to break above that level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $25.50 level above. That’s where we have seen a huge double top, so I think that of course is an area where people will be paying close attention. I do think that’s where silver tries the gown, and now we have the 50-Day EMA rising to break above the 200-Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “golden cross.”
Looking at this chart, we could pull back toward the $23.50 level again, which is the bottom of the current consolidation area. All things being equal I do think that short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities but whether or not we break out anytime soon remains a question. Looking at this chart, we could go back and forth for some time, while we try to build up the next move in one direction or the other. In general, I think this is a situation where we are lacking a bit of momentum, but it certainly looks as if it is trying to build up enough pressure to finally move higher.
This will be especially helped by interest rates dropping in the United States if and when that continues, which is a major driver of what happens with precious metals, and silver is even more sensitive than gold to that most of the time. With that being said, I think we got a situation where the market is going to be one that you need to be very cautious with, but it certainly looks as if the buyers are doing quite well at the moment, and I do think that they will continue to lead the way in general. Whether or not we can break above the $25.50 level is a completely open question at this point.
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Silver Attempts to Rally Again
By: Christopher Lewis | November 22, 2023
• Silver displayed some volatility early in Wednesday’s trading session, initially gapping lower only to reverse course and exhibit signs of resilience.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
In the grander context, I believe this market holds the potential to gradually edge towards the $24 level, and perhaps even surpass it. Nevertheless, it’s crucial to recognize that this specific market is susceptible to sporadic behavior, with the added complexity of being silver.
Beneath the surface, the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average continues to offer a degree of support, while the 50-Day EMA is making efforts to cross above the 200-Day EMA, hinting at the possibility of a “golden cross” formation. A bullish breakout could pave the way for the market to set its sights on the $25 level, potentially setting the stage for a move towards the double top around $25.50.
Conversely, should we witness a breakdown below the moving averages, there is a potential downside towards the $22 level, which previously served as a rebound point following lower-than-anticipated inflation figures in the United States. This implies that there remains optimism among market participants concerning the Federal Reserve’s potential adoption of a more accommodative monetary policy. However, such a shift in the short term appears improbable.
The prevailing hope revolves around the Federal Reserve at least considering adjustments to its monetary policy, providing cause for celebration among traders. The long-term outcome remains uncertain, and it’s essential to note that the silver market typically exhibits a negative correlation with the US dollar, a factor that demands attention.
For the time being, I have no inclination to partake in silver selling activities, and I believe that pullbacks could present viable buying opportunities. Nevertheless, one must exercise caution when entering this market. Additionally, it’s imperative to bear in mind that Thursday marks Thanksgiving, which means this week’s trading will be abbreviated.
Ultimately, silver’s recent performance has been marked by substantial fluctuations, but the potential for an upward trajectory towards the $24 mark continues. The volatile nature of the silver market and its relationship with the US dollar make it a market where caution is of vital importance. While the idea of potential buying opportunities during pullbacks remains. As Thanksgiving approaches, market participants should anticipate subdued trading conditions in the days ahead.
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Silver Falls to Kick Off the Week
By: Christopher Lewis | November 20, 2023
• The silver market fell significantly during the trading session in the early hours of Monday, as it looks like the market got a little bit overextended.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has fallen rather hard to kick out the Monday session, as we have seen a lot of noisy behavior. All things being equal, this is a market that has found that $24 region to be a little too much, and we ended up forming a massive shooting star on Friday, which showed that perhaps we were a little overdone. Because of this, it does make certain amount of sense that we have pulled back the way we have. We have the 200-Day EMA sitting just below, and of course the 50-Day EMA is in the same region. Both of these moving averages are somewhat flat, so they may lose some of the efficacy of the moving averages offering support. That being said though, it could also be a scenario where buyers could be interested. Furthermore, we also have the $23 level underneath.
Ultimately, silver is going to be thrown around by a whole plethora of external factors such as industrial demand, as the metal is not only a precious metal, but also an industrial one. Furthermore, we also have to pay attention to interest rates coming out of the United States, because if they start to fall, that also can help silver. Taking out the top of the shooting star from the Friday session would be extraordinarily bullish and could open up a move to the $25 level, something that is still very much possible, but we may need to get a little bit of profit-taking out of the way in the meantime.
The size of the candlestick on Monday is somewhat impressive, but ultimately this is a situation where the market had gotten so far ahead of itself that the market had to sell off a bit. Ultimately, I think you have to look at this through the prism of finding a bit of value, but more importantly, finding the market somewhat stabilizing in the process as well. With this, I think you have to be cautiously optimistic, but probably patient more than anything else, waiting for an opportunity to get long of a market that clearly had gotten ahead of itself.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 18, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 23852 is immediately trading down about 0.78% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in November is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24220 intraday and is still trading above that high of 23880.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23465.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 13th at 24220, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24220 to 21925. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24220 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 19671 and 26803. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 13th reaching 24220 has exceeded the previous high of 24050 made back during the week of September 18th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in November, this market has held above last month's low of 20850 reaching 20850.
This market is trading below that high of May which was 26435 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
Silver Continues to Threaten a Move to the Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | November 17, 2023
• The silver market rallied significantly during the course of the trading session again on Friday, as it looks like we are trying to break out.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied significantly during the early hours on Friday, as we continue to see precious metals get a bit of a bid. Silver is trying to break out at this point and run toward the $25 level above. Keep in mind that silver is going to have a bit of a bid due to the geopolitical concerns out there and people are trying to protect their wealth. Furthermore, we need to pay close attention to the interest rate markets in the United States, which continue to drift a bit lower with yields, and that does help silver as well.
Ultimately, pullbacks at this point in time probably get bought into, but we also have to keep in mind that silver is highly sensitive to the industrial demand for the metal, as it is not just the precious metal, but it is a significant industrial one as well, especially when you start talking about green technologies.
Underneath, the 200-Day EMA would be massive support, but we would have to wipe out the Thursday and Wednesday candlesticks in order to reach it, and I think that would be your short-term “floor in the market.” As long as we stay above there, it’s likely that the market will continue to go higher and therefore I think pullbacks will end up offering buying opportunities that you can take advantage of. This will be especially true if the US dollar starts to shrink even further, because of course the silver market is priced in those very same US dollars.
Ultimately, I think silver probably goes looking to the $25 level, possibly even the $25.50 level. Anything above there, the market should go higher, and kick off a major “FOMO trade.” In general, this is a situation that continues to be very noisy, and of course silver is a situation where the contract is very difficult to hang onto with a huge position. Keep your position size reasonable, it’s the only thing that we can do to protect ourselves in this type of environment. It would not surprise me at all to see a bit of a pullback, but I also would expect to see buyers underneath.
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Silver Continues to Show Resiliency
By: Christopher Lewis | November 16, 2023
• The silver market rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to threaten a breakout.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver markets initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday, only to turn around and show strength again. At this point, we are trying to break out and reach the $24 level. Breaking above the $24 level opens up the possibility of a move to the $25 level above. In fact, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we get there, but silver also has a lot of noise in the market under normal circumstances, and it won’t be any different at this point.
The thing you need to keep in mind is that the interest rate markets can move silver quite violently, and if interest rates start to climb again, that could be negative for silver. It’s also worth noting that we are sitting right in an area that has caused a significant amount of resistance previously, so there is a certain amount of trouble just above. If we were to break above there, it would be a major breakout and it would confirm that silver was going to go much higher.
Another thing you need to pay close attention to is the idea of industrial demand. If we are in fact heading into a recession, demand for silver should start to drop and that could work against the market. On the other hand, you can also make an argument for the metal being a safety trade, as precious metals can be from time to time, although I am the first to admit that I like gold more for this type of scenario. Geopolitical concerns continue to drive the narrative to a lot of markets, and if those pick up a bit, that could drive silver higher also.
Finally, pay close attention to the US dollar, because it starts to strengthen, that can work against the value of silver, unless of course people were buying silver for safety, then both could rise at the same time. Either way, it looks like we are trying to break out, and short-term pullbacks toward the 200-Day EMA could be potential buying opportunities in this type of environment. Keep your position size reasonable.
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Unlocking Silver’s Potential: Technical Analysis Points to Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | November 13, 2023
• Silver’s resilient bounce from key levels hints at a potential bullish reversal, backed by monthly chart support and a promising bullish hammer candlestick pattern.
Silver further retraced its prior advance today to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area with Monday’s low of 21.87. Support was subsequently seen leading to an intraday rally. Today’s low is right near support of the long- term uptrend line that starts from the swing low from the year 2020 (C), while the 61.8% retracement is at 21.82. Further, on the monthly chart, today’s low successfully tested support of the 50-Month EMA at 21.87.
Bullish Reaction Off Lows Points to Higher Prices
Given the bullish reaction off today’s lows, it looks like there is a good chance it may be the low of the retracement. Silver is currently on track to end the day with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. It reflects sellers dominating earlier in the session, but later in the session the bulls took over. And the bulls are set to close silver in a strong position, near the highs of the day.
Bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern Today
A bullish hammer reversal candle provides a sign of strengthening upon a breakout above the candle, which would be today’s high of 22.35, at the time of this writing. It signals a potential bullish reversal upon a decisive breakout. This doesn’t mean silver goes straight up if a bullish signal triggers tomorrow or the next day. It is not uncommon to see an inside day first or an upside breakout followed by a pullback to within today’s price range.
Key Support Area Hit and Reverses
If we see bullish follow-through on silver from today’s low, it will turn out to be an ideal area to find support that kicks in a new round of buying as demand increases. There is a combination of support from the long term trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, as well as the monthly indication noted above. The bullish reaction from the lows shows price being rejected to the upside thereby confirming support that may hold and lead to a bullish reversal.
Bouncing into Consolidation Range
A rally from current levels will quickly be encountering a block of consolidation that includes choppy price action plus the 50-Day and 200-Day EMAs within the range. Weekly price levels to watch (prior weekly highs) are at 23.24, 23.59, and 23.68. The higher price level is the recent trend high and the top of the consolidation range.
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Silver Shows Signs of Stability
By: Christopher Lewis | November 14, 2023
• Silver has initially rallied during the trading session on Tuesday as we are waiting to see whether or not the market will stabilize enough to turn things around.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has rallied early during the trading session on Tuesday, as it looks like the hammer from the Monday session is trying to support the market. It’s worth noting that that Hammer had found a $22 level interesting enough to keep the market somewhat floating in that area. If we were to break higher from here, the next major area will probably be somewhere near the 50-Day EMA. Ultimately, I think that is an area where we need to pay close attention, because I would anticipate that we have a huge fight on our hands in that general vicinity.
That being said, think silver has the possibility of dropping from here again, but the bottom of the hammer from the Monday session will be something worth paying attention to, because if we were to break down below there, things could get rather ugly. Pay attention to the interest rate markets in the United States, because higher interest rates typically work against silver. On the other hand, we also have a huge industrial demand situation as well, so you have to pay close attention to where the economy is going, because it will directly influence the demand for silver as it is used in so many industrial applications.
At this point, I would anticipate a lot of noisy behavior, and quite frankly if I’m looking for precious metals trade, probably going to be jumping in the gold market and not the silver market, although silver can bring in quite a bit of momentum when the conditions are right.
Expect a lot of volatility, but it does look to me like there is a lot of support underneath, and therefore think you get a situation where you are probably going to see short-term buying on the dips, with a lot of resistance above at the 50-Day EMA to keep this in some type of consolidation area in a market that looks a bit confused, but it does also look a little oversold at the moment, perhaps kicking off some type of short-term recovery that shorter-term traders can take advantage of in this environment.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 11, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22281 is immediately trading down about 7.31% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 6 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 22952, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in November is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low but is trading rather weak at this moment. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 22505 and support forming below at 21455. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 22645. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 23880 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 19787 and 26515.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in November, this market has held above last month's low of 20850 reaching 20850.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
Silver Continues to Grind
By: Christopher Lewis | November 10, 2023
• Silver has gone back and forth during the Friday trading session yet again, as we are trying to sort out where we are going next.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. We are close to the bottom of the bullish flag that we have been trading in for a while, therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that the market will continue to be somewhat noisy in this area, especially as silver is a typically choppy market to begin with. Because of this, it’s probably worth noting that the various issues that push silver around continue to be volatile in and of themselves.
The market continues to deal with a lot of geopolitical issues, and of course that can blow up at any time. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next in the Middle East, because so far, Israel has shown an incredible amount of restraint and for that matter, so have the Iranians. A lot of what we had seen in the precious metals markets hinged on the fear trade, meaning the people were worried that the situation in the Middle East was about to get out of control, and that of course has people looking to protect wealth.
Silver is also an industrial metal, and there are a lot of concerns out there about the potential of a significant recession coming down the road. If that’s the case, then demand should drop, but we also have to worry about the interest-rate markets at the same time. After all, if interest rates start to climb again, that is negative for silver, at least in a vacuum. With this being the case, the market looks as if we are trying to sort out what to do next, therefore I think we are in a very dangerous position. If we were to break down from here, the $22 level is the last vestiges of support. Anything below there opens up a big move lower. On the other hand, if the market were to turn around and rally from here, the 50-Day EMA would be the first target, and then after that silver could go looking to the top of the bullish flag.
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Silver Continues to Find Support
By: Christopher Lewis | November 9, 2023
• Silver markets had a rough open on Thursday but have turned around again to show signs of support at the bottom of a bullish flag.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has kicked off the Thursday session on the downside but turned around to show signs of life again. By doing so, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth momentum. All things being equal, it’s very likely that we will continue to see buyers on dips, as there is so much uncertainty in the world I think that people are looking to the precious metals market for a little bit of wealth preservation. Whether or not silver is the answer remains to be seen, because silver does have several other factors come into play beyond geopolitical concerns.
To begin with, silver does tend to be sensitive to interest rates in the United States, which of course have been rather high and may stay that way for a while. Also, you have to keep in mind that if there is a recession the industrial demand for silver should drop. Just above, we have the 50-Day EMA that comes into the picture as resistance as well. After that, then you have the 200-Day EMA just above it. That being said, both of those moving averages are flat, so that tends to suggest that we don’t really have anywhere to be in the short term, just as we have not had anywhere to be for a while.
If we can break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then we can start to dig right into those moving averages. Breaking above there and then the top of the flag would be the goal for the bulls out there, and once the market does that, it’s very likely that silver could go looking to the $25 level after that.
On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break down below the lows of both Wednesday and Thursday, that could open up and move down to the $22 level. Anything below there would be very ugly for the silver market, perhaps opening up a move down to the $21 level next. I would anticipate a lot of noisy behavior, which is typical for this market to begin with so keep your position size reasonable as you navigate all of the volatility that is inherent in this market.
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Key segments of the silver market to see 42% growth through 2033 - Oxford Economics
By: Neils Christensen | November 8, 2023
Demand for silver will continue to grow for the next decade, far outpacing its growth over the last 10 years, according to the latest research from Oxford Economics.
In a research report conducted on behalf of the Silver Institute, the analysts said that three key pillars of global silver demand – industrial, jewelry and silverware – are expected to see total demand growth of 42% through 2033, "effectively double the growth rate over the previous decade, 2014-2023."
The report said that industrial demand will continue to dominate the silver market over the next 10 years with demand from the sector expected to grow by 46%. At the same time, jewelry and silverware demand are forecasted to rise by 34% and 30% respectively.
The report notes that these three segments of the silver market account for nearly three-quarters of global demand. Industrial applications alone represent more than 60% of total silver demand.
"Over the next decade, we forecast the global output of the electronics and electrical applications industry will grow by 55%," the analysts said in the report. "This is an annual average growth rate of 4.5%. The pace of growth is expected to be faster in the first five years (2023-28) compared to the second (2028-33), at an average of 5.4% versus 3.5% a year."
One interesting observation from the report is how China is expected to play a dominant role in the silver market during the next 10 years. Oxford Economics sees China leading industrial and jewelry demand over the coming decade.
"Of the forecast growth in the output of sectors that use silver for industrial purposes over the next decade, 51% is predicted to occur in China. The United States is forecast to have a 5% share in the additional output," the analysts said in the report.
Looking at jewelry demand, Oxford Economics sees rapid growth in the next five years, with China leading the world.
"Just over half of the growth in the global output of the other manufacturing sector between 2023 and 2033 is forecast to occur in China," the analysts said. "The United States is forecast to have an 8% share of the additional other manufacturing output. This suggests there will be some move in production from India to China over the next decade."
Looking at silverware manufacturing, Oxford Economics expects Asia excluding China will drive demand in the market, while India, which has dominated this segment of the silver market, will fall to second place.
"Our forecasts suggest that most of the growth in the future demand for the metal by silverware fabricators between 2023 and 2033 is likely to come from Asian countries. We expect demand from India will contribute 43% of the growth in the demand for silver to be turned into silverware. This is less than their existing share of consumption at 73%," the analysts said.
Solid demand growth for silver comes as the market is expected to see significant supply deficits in the next several years. According to the Silver Institute, the precious metal is expected to have a supply deficit of 142.1 million ounces in 2023; this follows the 2022 deficit of 237.7 million ounces.
So far, solid physical demand for silver has not done much to attract investor attention as investment demand remains fairly lackluster with prices unable to hold above $23 an ounce. Silver also continues to underperform gold as the gold/silver ratio remains relatively elevated above 85 points.
According to many analysts, silver has struggled to attract attention as it fights headwinds on two fronts. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy continues to support the U.S. dollar and higher yields, while recession fears are weighing on potential industrial demand.
However, many analysts have said that the green energy transition driving solar demand reduces the potential impact a recession would have on silver.
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Silver Bounces After Initial Drop
By: Christopher Lewis | November 8, 2023
• Silver fell to kick off the trading session on Wednesday, only to turn around and bounce a bit by the time the Americans got on board. In doing so, it shows that the bottom of the potential bullish flag is trying to hold.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver fell to kick off the trading session on Wednesday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. By doing so, it shows that the bullish flag is trying to hold its shape, which suggests that we will continue to go to the upside. The 50-Day EMA above could be a bit of a target in the short term, as well as the top of the overall flag. I do think at this point in time we are likely to see a lot of traders jumping into the market, but if we get some type of fundamental reason for silver to take onto the upside, then it’s possible that we could see momentum picked back up. Keep in mind that the silver market is moved by quite a few external factors.
The first thing that you need to pay the most attention to is interest rates. If interest rates rally, a lot of times they work against silver. However, there are a lot of geopolitical concerns out there, and that has people looking for safety trades, and “hard assets” such as gold and silver. Finally, you also have to pay close attention to the fact that silver is an industrial metal, and therefore the global economy has a huge influence on silver as seen through the prism of demand. Because of this, silver tends to be very noisy and I don’t think that changes anytime soon with the massive amount of indecision that we see out there.
If we were to turn around and breakdown below the lows of the day and essentially the bottom of the bullish flag, then the market could test the $22 level, possibly even down to the $21 level. In that environment, I suspect that the US dollar will have spiked against almost everything, and silver would just be a victim of the greenback taking off to the upside in general. Because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where the market is going to continue to see a lot of choppy behavior and therefore you should prepare accordingly.
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Analyzing Silver’s Chart Patterns: A Bullish Outlook
By: Bruce Powers | November 6, 2023
• Silver’s price is tightly consolidated near support levels, forming a potential bullish symmetrical triangle.
Silver remains stuck inside a tightening consolidation range as it flirts with support from multiple trendlines and moving averages. Included around the two-week range are two trend lines plus the 50-Day EMA (orange) and 200-Day EMA (blue). The two-week range has been occurring around support of the 38.2% and the long-term downtrend line (thicker blue). A retracement that stops falling and turns back up around the 38.2% retracement is showing strength relative to deeper retracements.
Small Symmetrical Triangle Forms
The two-week consolidation phase takes the form of a small symmetrical triangle or pennant (purple boundary lines). Its formation follows a sharp 14.6% rally in 13 days that peaked on October 20 at a high of 23.68. The question is whether the 14.6% rally qualifies as a pole prior to the pennant/triangle consolidation phase? Generally, it doesn’t look like that sharp of a pole as we might see in other pennant setups. Nonetheless, the underlying message is similar. A breakout of the pennant/triangle is bullish and likely provides an initial signal for a continuation of the developing uptrend.
ABCD Pattern Targets 25.44
An ABCD pattern has been added to the chart showing the potential target from the pennant along with the pole (sharp rally before consolidation). With the ABCD pattern we are looking to identify when the CD leg up matches the price appreciation seen in the initial AB leg of the trend. It is interesting that if hit, the target of 25.44 would put silver above each of the next two identified target zones (red highlights).
Consolidation May Continue Through This Week
It could take a little more time before volatility picks up though and a breakout triggers. The pennant consolidation phase could continue to evolve for another couple of weeks before it is ready to break out. Although there are two points to create each boundary line the filling of the pattern is currently less than halfway towards the apex of the triangle. Nevertheless, it doesn’t have to fill more of the triangle before a breakout.
As it stands now a bullish breakout is triggered on a decisive rally above the 23.59 high from October 30. Further confirmation will then be provided on a rally above and daily close above the trend high at 23.68.
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Silver Price Forecast – Silver Looks a Bit Tired
By: Christopher Lewis | November 6, 2023
• Silver has pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Monday, as it looks like we are running into a certain amount of exhaustion.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver looks a bit tired during the day on Monday, as the markets are sitting just below the 200-Day EMA. The 200-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people are paying close attention to, as it has offered resistance previously. The market has broken above there a couple of times, but it almost certainly shows signs of exhaustion. Above there, the $24 level offers significant resistance, and therefore I think you need to pay close attention to it. If silver were to break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the $25.50 level.
The other scenario of course is that we go back and forth in this general vicinity, with the $22.50 level underneath being an area of general support, and therefore I think you got a situation where we can bounce back and forth trying to figure out where we are going next. That makes quite a bit of sense, due to the fact that the silver markets are being thrown around by quite a few different things at the same time.
All things being equal, silver typically moves on interest rates, the US dollar, and industrial demand. Remember, while silver does have a lot of the same moves as gold, the reality is that the silver market also has to take in a lot of industrial demand questions as well. We have a situation where the market is trying to sort out whether or not we are going to see the economy pick up or if the economy is going to slow down. However, the market is likely to see the various wars around the world right now giving you an idea of why you need to have some type of “safety trade.” While I don’t like silver as a safety trade, it does serve that purpose from time to time.
In general, I think this is a situation where we are currently trying to work off a lot of froth, which of course we saw enter the market from the massive bounce at the bottom. If we can break out to the upside, I suspect it will bring in a huge rush and a massive “FOMO trade.”
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 4, 2023
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23255 and overhead resistance forming above at 23465. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 2 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 16th at 22535. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 5.171% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 20850 as it has fallen back reaching only 4385 which still remains -78.9% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 23880 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 19817 and 26555.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of October 16th reaching 23880 failed to exceed the previous high of 24050 made back during the week of September 18th. That rally amounted to only four weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in November, this market has held above last month's low of 20850 reaching 20850.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
Silver prices attract attention for all the wrong reasons as they underperform gold
By: Neils Christensen | October 31, 2023
The gold market continues to attract new attention as prices hold the line around $2,000 an ounce; at the same time, silver is starting to appear on some investors' radars, but for less bullish reasons as the precious metal continues to underperform.
The gold/silver ratio also shows that the yellow metal maintains the upper hand in the marketplace. The ratio is currently above 86 points, well off its summer lows, which means that it now takes 86 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold. The average ratio in recent history is between 50 and 60.
Analysts have also noted that gold continues to benefit from technical momentum after breaking solidly above its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, this resistance level has been a cap for silver. Silver's 200-day moving average is at $23.889 an ounce and some analysts have said that the metal needs to see a clear break above $24 to attract new bullish interest.
Silver is also underperforming relative to gold in the near term. December silver futures last traded at $23.010 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day, while December gold futures last traded at $1,999.60 an ounce, down 0.30% on the day.
Commodity analysts at Commerzbank said that gold is outperforming silver because the yellow metal is seen as a more vital safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical instability.
"Clearly, silver is not profiting from the demand for safe havens to the same extent as gold," the analysts said in a note on Tuesday. "Industrial use accounts for somewhat more than 50% of total silver demand. As a result, the silver price tends to perform less well than the gold price at times of increased risk aversion and associated economic concerns."
Some economists have warned that Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, coupled with renewed chaos in the Middle East from Israel's war with Hamas, will further strain the global economy.
Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis at the StoneX Group, also said in her last market commentary that silver's industrial component could be holding back the precious metal.
O'Connell noted that silver's underperformance highlights risks for the gold market as well.
"Silver's reluctance to move underscores the fact that while investors are hedging against risk, the momentum to take gold into a new higher range is still not there, or silver would be more aggressively bullish," she said.
While safe-haven demand has provided solid support for both gold and silver, analysts note that the fundamental economic backdrop has not changed.
Although the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the central bank is still expected to maintain its restrictive monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Some commodity analysts have noted that this continues to support a stronger U.S. dollar and higher bond yields, two significant headwinds for gold and silver.
While silver's momentum appears to be capped, some investors have said that it still remains an important value asset to watch. Some analysts have said that the green energy transition and exponential growth in solar energy continue to drive industrial demand for silver even as supply dwindles.
Analysts have said that this significant supply and demand imbalance supports a long-term uptrend in silver.
"While it remains a long way short of its all-time high (just below $50 in 2011), the metal is showing signs of life," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. "It has just broken back above an upward-sloping trendline linking a succession of lows beginning in August last year. Back then, silver was trading below $18 per ounce and it's now 32% higher. One worth keeping an eye on."
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A Brief History of The Health Support Uses of SilverFor thousands of years silver has been used as a healing agent by civilizations throughout the world. Its medical, preservative and restorative powers can be traced as far back as the ancient Greek and Roman Empires. Long before the development of modern pharmaceuticals, silver was employed as a germicide. Consider these interesting facts:
Silver Re-DiscoveredNot until the late 1800's did western scientists re-discover what had been known for thousands of years - that silver is a powerful germ fighter. Medicinal silver compounds were then developed and silver became commonly used as a medicine. By the early part of the 1900s, the use of silver was becoming widespread. By 1940 there were approximately four dozen different silver compounds on the market. Although there were a few flare-ups of negative publicity regarding medicinal silver in the early 1900s, (due to the overuse of certain types of protein-bound silver compounds causing a discoloration of the skin called argyria and due to a supply of improperly prepared and unstable silver) reputable medical journal reports demonstrated that a properly prepared colloidal dispersion of silver was completely suitable with no adverse side effects. T. H. Anderson Wells reported in the Lancet (February 16th, 1918) that a preparation of colloidal silver was "used intravenously. . . without any irritation of the kidneys and with no pigmentation of the skin. " New knowledge of body chemistry gave rise to the enormous array of applications for colloidal disinfectants and medicines and for on-going research into the capabilities and possibilities for silver colloids. However, Silver's "new-found" fame as a superior infection-fighting agent was short lived. How Silver Lost FavorDuring the 1930s, synthetically manufactured drugs began to make their appearance and the profits, together with the simplicities of manufacturing this new source of treatment, became a powerful force in the marketplace. There was much excitement over the new 'wonder drugs' and at that time, no antibiotic-resistant strains of disease organisms had surfaced. Silver quickly lost its status to modern antibiotics. On-going Uses of Colloidal SilverThe use of some silver preparations in mainstream medicine survived. Among them are the use of dilute silver nitrate in newborn babies' eyes to protect from infection and the use of "Silvadine," a silver based salve, in virtually every burn ward in America to kill infection. A new silver based bandage has recently been approved by the FDA and licensed for sale. Other uses that did not lose favor include:
But for the most part, with the discovery of pharmaceutical antibiotics, interest in silver as an anti-microbial agent declined almost to the point of extinction. The Resurgence of Silver in MedicineThe return of silver to conventional medicine began in the 1970s. The late Dr. Carl Moyer, chairman of Washington University's Department of Surgery, received a grant to develop better methods of treatment for burn victims. Dr. Margraf, as the chief biochemist, worked with Dr. Moyer and other surgeons to find an antiseptic strong enough, yet safe to use over large areas of the body. Dr. Margraf investigated 22 antiseptic compounds and found drawbacks in all of them. Reviewing earlier medical literature, Dr. Margraf found continual references to the use of silver. However, since concentrated silver nitrate is both corrosive and painful, he diluted the silver to a .5 percent solution and found that it killed invasive burn bacteria and permitted wounds to heal. Importantly, resistant strains did not appear. But, silver nitrate was far from ideal. So research continued for more suitable silver preparations. Silver sulphadiazine (Silvadene, Marion Laboratories) is now used in 70 percent of burn centers in America. Discovered by Dr. Charles Fox of Columbia University, sulphadiazine has also been successful in treating cholera, malaria and syphilis. It also stops the herpes virus, which is responsible for cold sores, shingles and worse. The history and uses of colloidal silver are well known and documented. They can be researched easily on the Internet through search engines and any colloid forum, bulletin boards or blogs. We cannot link to them or publish them here because Federal Law prohibits any claims or testimonials associating our products or product ingredients with any disease states. Keep in mind that the particle surface area of our colloidal silver product, MesoSilver, is the highest ever tested. This means it is the most effective of any colloidal silver product ever made. With not a single serious adverse event ever reported, it is also one of the safest supplements on the market today.
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The Silver Price Will Rise 4.83 Times as Far as Gold Pricehttp://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/2008/12/silver-price-will-rise-483-times-as-far.html Unless you understand this one principle, you understand nought about precious metals' bull markets: monetary demand, and monetary demand alone, drives both gold AND silver. It's not Indian wedding demand or the popularity of silver jewelry that drives their prices, but sheer monetary demand, holding them as "money" because the alternatives -- national currencies -- are clearly failing. WHEREFORE, before this bull market ends, you will need only 16 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, which means from here that the silver price will rise 4.83 times as far as the gold price. Forget the siren song of the "gold-only" bugs, who have fallen for the myths of the money interest: both silver and gold are money, and always will be. GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLESeptember 3rd, 2010 by Egon von Greyerz GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLEFundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.
Gold trendWe expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold's technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak. Once gold has topped we do not expect the same kind of decline as after the 1980 peak since gold is likely to become part of a future reserve currency. At that point gold will be a solid but unexciting investment with very little upside potential. But that is likely to be a few years away. In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments. The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels. The increase in demand that we have seen has most probably been satisfied by central banks leasing or lending their gold to the bullion banks. Central banks supposedly own 30,000 tons of gold but unofficial estimates of their real holdings are at 15,000 tons or less. So what are the factors that are likely to lead to a major rise in the gold price? We have for several years outlined in our Newsletters the problems in the world that inevitably will lead to massive money printing and a hyperinflationary depression (see for example "Alea Iacta Est" and "There Will Be No Double Dip…" on the Matterhorn Asset Management website). There are three insurmountable problems:
The effect of this massive $20 trillion infusion has been ephemeral since we are entering the autumn of 2010 with virtually every single economic indicator and statistic in the US deteriorating rapidly. With interest rates already at zero there is no ammunition left but one. And it is this specific last bullet that will be used to infinity in the next few years and starting very soon, namely UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING. Every single area of the US economy will need support or printed money, whether it is the federal government, the states, the municipalities, banks, pension funds, insurance companies, the unemployed, corporations, health care, housing market, commercial real estate, individuals, etc, etc, etc. The list is endless and many other countries will follow. Before we talk about gold in hyperinflationary terms, let's look at where gold is likely to reach in today's money. Three realistic Gold targets: $6,000 - $7,000 - $10,000:
The three historical comparisons above (and see chart below) would put gold anywhere from $6,000 to $10,000 and this is without inflation, or more likely hyperinflation. In a hyperinflationary environment, the price gold will go to is really irrelevant since it depends on how much money is printed. In the Weimar Republic for example gold went to DM 100 trillion. What is more important is that gold is likely to go up at least 5 times from today without inflation and with hyperinflation gold will protect investors against the total destruction of paper money and many other assets. Wealth ProtectionGold must only be held in its physical form and the holder of gold must have direct access to the gold. We consider ETFs, gold in a bank (whether allocated or unallocated), fractal ownership of physical gold, futures or any other form of paper gold as very risky and a totally unsatisfactory method for owning gold. Physical gold should preferably be stored outside your country of residence and outside the banking system. The holder must have direct access to the vaults where the gold is stored. SilverSilver has been lagging gold since its peak at over $21 in 2008. For the last few months the gold/silver ratio has been consolidating between 58 and 71. The ratio is currently around 64 and is likely to start a move down to new lows below the 2006 low at just 44. So this is very good news for silver which is likely to outpace gold substantially in the next few years. Silver is probably the most undervalued precious metal today and has great potential. But there are many caveats for silver:
StockmarketsAt the beginning of July this year we sent out a message to investors that, based on our proprietary indicators, we expected stockmarkets to finish the correction up at the end of July and resume the major downtrend in August. We also said that gold would start its major rise in August. And this is exactly what has happened so far. We now expect major falls in all stockmarkets worldwide over a sustained period. We would not be surprised to see the Dow down to the 1,000 area (in today's terms) before this bear market in over. But it will not be a straight line and there will be extreme volatility. When hyperinflation sets in, stockmarkets will have a major but temporary surge. The only stocks that investors should hold are precious metals stocks and possibly some resource and food stocks. But it must be remembered that stocks do not represent the same degree of wealth preservation as physical precious metals held directly by the investor. CurrenciesCurrencies should in the next few years be looked upon as a necessary evil and not as a store of value. All currencies will continue to decline against gold, just as they have in the last 11 years and in the last 100 years. Due to money printing by most governments, we will have a fierce game of competitive devaluations by virtually all central banks. We have seen the Euro and the pound weaken substantially and the next currency the speculators will jump on is the US dollar. The dollar is grossly overvalued, partly due to the weak Euro, and is likely to weaken significantly due to the problems in the US economy. Currencies only reflect relative value and not absolute value since they can be and are printed until they reach their intrinsic value of zero. It is a fallacy to measure the value of a currency relative to another currency since they are all losing value. Currencies should only be measured against real money which is gold. This is the only method that reveals governments' deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money. Therefore it is a mug's game to speculate or invest in currencies since they will all decline in an extremely volatile and unpredictable market. So are there currencies which are likely to perform better on a relative basis for funds that have to be held in paper money? We believe that Norwegian kroner, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Australian Dollar and Renminbi will perform relatively better than many other currencies. Government Bond MarketsThe bond market is the biggest bubble in financial markets worldwide, in our opinion. Investors around the world are worried about the state of financial markets and therefore believe that government bonds represent a safe haven. These investors will receive the most enormous shock on two accounts. Firstly, no government will be able to repay the debts outstanding. So there will either be government defaults, moratoria, or money printing that totally destroys the value of the bonds. Secondly, interest rates are likely to go up significantly to at least 10-15%, totally destroying the value of the bonds. ConclusionWe are now entering a period when most major asset classes and in particular stocks, bonds and currencies are starting a major decline. Since most financial assets in the world are invested in these three categories plus real estate which will also decline, we are likely to experience major shocks and crises in the financial system and the world economy. Wealth protection is now more important than probably at any other time in history. Physical gold and possibly other precious metals directly controlled by the investor will be a vital part of a wealth preservation portfolio. |
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