Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 9, 2023

At this time, the NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 23276. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into December reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 26340 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 21925. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 25660.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23470 and support forming below at 23240. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 26340 to 23245. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 26340 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21270 and 25434. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 4th reaching 26340 has exceeded the previous high of 23880 made back during the week of October 16th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of September 18th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. We have seen a rally thus far from the last low of 21925 for the past 3 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 21925. Additional support is to be found at 22645. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 21925 reaching 21925.

This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.

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