Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 11, 2023

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22281 is immediately trading down about 7.31% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 6 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 22952, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in November is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low but is trading rather weak at this moment. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 22505 and support forming below at 21455. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 22645. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 23880 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 19787 and 26515.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in November, this market has held above last month's low of 20850 reaching 20850.

This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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