Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 28, 2023

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22887 is immediately trading down about 4.79% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Presently, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 20850 while it is still trading above last month's close of 22450 implying near-term strength.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during August. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23015 and support forming below at 22805. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 2 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 16th at 22535. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.506% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 20850 as it has fallen back reaching only 4385 which still remains -78.9% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market,

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of October 16th reaching 23880 failed to exceed the previous high of 24050 made back during the week of September 18th. That rally amounted to only four weeks.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in October, this market has held above last month's low of 22325 reaching 22325.

This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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