Rival Energy Ltd (fka rgylf)

[Bobwins]

Ath.v is a heavy oil driller. They were 100% successful in 2006. I want drillers that can consistently increase production to reduce risk from price volatility. I used to avoid heavy oil, thinking that the price differential was too great. In the last several years, more refineries are gearing up for heavy oil refining and that has improved(narrowed) the price spread between light sweet and heavier oil. Ath.v is a small producer but has good prospects for drilling locations and should be able to increase production now that the weather will allow drilling. Bobwins


MAY 3, 2007 - 09:30 ET

Athlone Energy Ltd. Reports Record Revenue Significantly Expands Drilling Inventory

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(CCNMatthews - May 3, 2007) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES OR FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES

Athlone Energy Ltd. ("Athlone" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:ATH) is pleased to provide an operational update for the period January 1, 2007 to March 31, 2007. Gross revenues for the period of approximately $1.4 million are the highest revenue to date. This compares to approximately $550,000 for the period January 1, 2006 to March 31, 2006. Athlone anticipates continued production growth as plans for activity in three geographic areas in the province of Alberta; Lloydminster, west central Alberta and southern Alberta will commence after spring breakup. Current production from field estimates is approximately 400 Boepd.

Lloydminster Heavy Oil and Gas Area: (100% Working Interest)

- 8 new wells were drilled in 2006 proving up 26 step-out development locations

- 6 new proposed wells to be drilled immediately after breakup

Athlone was 100% successful in the Lloydminster heavy oil area during 2006 with eight new wells drilled, cased and put on production. The successful drilling programs, in combination with 3D seismic programs, resulted in a significantly expanded drilling inventory of 26 low risk development step-out locations.

The Company will be drilling six new wells immediately after breakup.

To March 31, 2007, the Company had a total of 12 producing wells in the Lloydminster Area. A summary of each area follows:

South Lloyd - 4 producing wells, 2 additional drilled and cased wells and 9 follow up locations

Athlone currently has four producing wells at South Lloyd and drilled and cased two step-out development wells prior to breakup. These wells will be completed and placed on production in May 2007. Based on drilling, 3D seismic, and production results to date, the company has identified nine future follow-up locations.

Vermilion - 2 producing wells and 11 follow up locations

Athlone holds an interest in 1.75 sections of land and currently has two producing wells. Based on the production results and 3D seismic interpretation, Athlone has identified 11 follow up locations. The Company will be drilling three wells immediately after breakup in this area.

Wildmere - 1 producing well and 4 follow up locations

Athlone has one producing well and recently shot and interpreted a 3D seismic program over the landholdings. The 3D seismic program has identified another four locations. Plans are to drill one follow up development well after breakup.

Kitscoty - 5 producing wells and 2 follow up locations

Athlone currently has five producing wells. A 3D seismic program has identified two additional locations which will be drilled later this year.

West Central Alberta: (100% Working Interest)

Athlone has licensed a re-entry in West Central Alberta and proposes to commence operations in June, 2007. This prospect is targeting light oil and gas and is located close to existing infrastructure. Athlone has a 100% working interest in 2.5 sections of land in this area.

Southern Alberta: (100% Working Interest)

Athlone has negotiated a seismic option agreement with an intermediate sized Royalty Trust covering seven sections of land in the Grand Forks area of Southern Alberta. The two primary targets are medium gravity oil and natural gas. The company is in the process of interpreting the 3D seismic and has until July 31, 2007 to elect to drill a well.

About Athlone Energy Ltd.

Athlone Energy Ltd. is an active junior oil and gas exploration company with core assets in Alberta and Saskatchewan. For further information, please refer to the Company's website: www.athlone.com or alternatively on www.sedar.com.

The term barrels of oil equivalent "boe" may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet (6 mcf) to one barrel (1 bbl) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.

This information contains forward-looking statements (forecasts) under applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon assumptions and judgments with respect to the future including, but not limited to, the outlook for commodity markets and capital markets, the performance of producing wells and reservoirs, and the regulatory and legal environment. Many of these factors can be difficult to predict. As a result, the forward-looking statements are subject to known or unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or implied in the forward-looking statements.

Copyright (c) 2007 ATHLONE ENERGY LTD. (TSX VENTURE:ATH) All rights reserved. For more information visit our website at http://www.athlone.com/ or send email to [e-mail].

CONTACT INFORMATION
Athlone Energy Ltd.
Garry Lohuis
President & CEO
[phone]
[phone] (FAX)
Email: [e-mail]
Website: www.athlone.com

[Stockcracker]

Thanks

I'm familiar with BFO & RTE but don't know anything about ATH. Have you posted anything on any boards on ATH?

[Bobwins]

I sold out of rgy.v. I was disappointed in their failures to hit guidance. They do look cheap here but their shallow gas wells deplete very fast and that puts pressure on Rival to continue to drill successfully to keep their production level to up. I am buying stock where I think the production increases are more assured. I bought ATH.v, BFO.v and RTE.v within the last 6 months. Bobwins

[Stockcracker]

Anyone still watching Rival?

No posts for a long time. Maybe worth a shot at current price?

[hogfan2]

gitty up

[Stockcracker]

Thanks Bob! eom

[Bobwins]

Here's my estimates for Q2. I continue to hold Rival. They disappointed again in Q1 with low production that they blamed on lack of equipment. For Q2, they disclosed that they have successfully drilled 6 wells in Q2.

Here are my assumptions for Q2

925 boepd avg production
Avg price 55.297/boepd
Net income $1,226,237 or .06
Cashflow $2,440,088 or .12

4 X.12= .48 forward annualized cashflow vs 1.50 price. P/CF multiple of 3, which is still on the low side.

.06X4= .24 forward annualized eps or P/E of 6

Rival is still undervalued. They need to show some dramatic production increases to make up for the last two disappointing qtrs and prove that they can boost production significantly beyond 1,000boepd. They are fairly well balanced with oil/ngas about 55/45%.

Bobwins

[Stockcracker]

BW re:Rival

Do you still follow this? I remember you pounding the table on Rival at one time.

Thanks.

[researcher59]

Rival will have significantly more revenue from oil than from gas at current prices and assuming production as in Q4 of 2807mcf gas and 419bbls oil ....

current price ratio is about 11 to 1, so that would mean 62% of revenues from oil ....

[bigpike]

Latest QIS comments:
QIS CAPITAL Comments:

Rival continues to grow at a steady pace on a year-over-year basis. Growth over the last 6 months has been marginal due to natural declines, rig availability, and the loss of a few producing wells. This will also impact Q1 numbers. However, Rival is expected to continue to show growth in 2006 directly through the drill bit and could accelerate this growth on the acquisition front. The company is trading at approximately 3.0 to 3.5 times anticipated cash flow for 2006 and at a discount to net asset value of $1.99 per share.

[bigpike]

I was looking for a greater increase in 2006 cash flow, not much of an increase predicted over 2005:

Rival Energy Ltd. Files 2005 Year-End Financial Results and Reserves on SEDAR
Tuesday April 18, 8:00 am ET

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(CCNMatthews - April 18, 2006) - Rival Energy Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:RGY - News) is pleased to announce it has filed its 2005 year-end financial results (Financial Statements and MD&A) and corporate reserve information (Forms 51-101F1-F3) on SEDAR. These documents are available on www.sedar.com and on the Company's website at www.rivalenergy.com. The following summarizes these filings:

Financial and Operating Highlights

- 96% increase in cash flow to $8.7 million or $0.45 per share.

- Production averaged 843 boe/d in 2005.

- Reserve replacement costs of $14.46/boe.

- Recycle ratio of 2.3.

- Debt approx. $3.5 million (0.3 x cash flow).

- Tax pools of $18 million.

- 2006 capital budget of $12-15 million.

- 2006 forecast cash flow of $10 million or $0.52 per share based on average 2006 production of 1000 boepd.

Highlights 3 Months Ended December 31 Percent ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Financial 2005 2004 Change ------------- ------------- ---------- Oil & gas sales $ 5,106,627 $ 2,772,159 84 Funds from operations 2,632,436 1,170,468 125 Net income (loss) 952,630 (212,491) 548 Funds from operations per share 0.13 0.06 117 Net income (loss) per share .05 (0.01) 552 Average shares outstanding (000) 19,809 19,196 3

Operating (6:1 BOE) Average daily production Natural gas (mcfd) 2,807 3,099 (9) Oil and NGL (bblsd) 419 223 88 ------------- ------------- ---------- Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) 887 739 20

Average Sales Price Natural gas (mcf) $ 11.39 $ 6.47 76 Crude Oil (bbl) 54.83 44.71 23

Year Ended December 31 Percent ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Financial 2005 2004 Change ------------- ------------- ---------- Oil & gas sales $ 16,847,517 $ 10,563,047 59 Funds from operations 8,673,118 4,417,211 96 Net income (loss) 2,884,228 206,662 1296 Funds from operations per share 0.45 0.23 96 Net income (loss) per share 0.15 0.01 1289 Average shares outstanding (000) 19,293 19,203 0

Operating (6:1 BOE) Average daily production Natural gas (mcfd) 2,912 2,845 2 Oil and NGL (bblsd) 358 237 51 ------------- ------------- ---------- Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) 843 711 19

Average Sales Price Natural gas (mcf) $ 8.73 $ 6.50 34 Crude Oil (bbl) 57.67 43.95 31

Corporate Performance:

Rival's drilling success continues to provide the foundation for its growth. In 2005 the Company's growth was primarily realized from the development of a new pool oil discovery in the Killam area of east-central Alberta. This core area, combined with the adjacent Bellshill area, continues to provide growth opportunities for Rival. A new pool discovery in Bellshill in Q4 2005 will provide development opportunities for Rival in 2006, once the Company's reduced spacing application is approved (approximately Q2 2006).

Activity for Rival was reduced in 2005 due to drilling rig availability and surface access, but the Company drilled 12 wells with a 75% success rate (6 oil wells and 3 natural gas wells). Corporate reserves grew by 12% for 2005 (after production of 308,000 boe) and Rival's finding and development costs were $14.46 per boe for the proven reserves added. Rival will be more active on the acquisition front in 2006 as it strives to achieve a more aggressive growth pattern to complement its move to central W5M and the Peace River Arch. The recent additions to Rival's technical team bring a strong balance of exploration and exploitation expertise to the Company. With this technical strength, growing production volumes, strong cash flow and a low debt to cash flow ratio, Rival is well positioned to continue to post solid results as we continue to execute our corporate strategy.

Core Areas:

- East central Alberta - This area offers high quality light oil and natural gas reservoirs at shallower depths with year-round access and available infrastructure. Rival has been very successful in its pursuit of light oil pools and the Company continues to explore for multi-zone natural gas prospects within this area.

- Central W5M and the Peace River Arch are new regions of concentration for Rival. The recent additions to our technical team have a track record of success throughout these geological areas and we expect to be active within selected portions of these areas during 2006.

- Robsart remains the Company's shallow natural gas focus area. This area continues to provide Rival with additional drilling opportunities as our drilling program is executed and additional geophysical work is completed in the area.

2006 Operating Results:

To date in 2006, Rival has completed and placed on production two wells (drilled in late Q1) and has plans and drilling rigs scheduled to drill another 6-8 wells during Q2 this year. The first quarter 2006 also saw Rival drill its first well in the Peace River Arch, which was subsequently abandoned, along with an unsuccessful shallow well in the Corbett Creek area of Alberta. The Company has an active program planned during and immediately following Spring break-up and has recently drilled one potential natural gas well (Killam) and a potential oil well (Bellshill) as part of this program. Current production is approximately 900 boe per day.

In the central W5M area of Alberta (Winter drilling area), Rival has recently completed an exploration farmin that gives the Company access to over 40 sections of land on a prospective shallow natural gas opportunity. Rival is also negotiating on two more multi-well drilling opportunities in areas that offer access to significant landholdings. Participation in these areas is expected to complement the company's shallower oil and natural gas opportunities with a few higher impact plays and allow Rival to benefit from the knowledge and experience of the two senior geologists that recently joined the Company.

The TSX Venture Exchange does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.


Contact:

Colin F. Ogilvy
Rival Energy Ltd.
President
[phone]

George Ziroff
Rival Energy Ltd.
VP Finance
[phone]
Website: www.rivalenergy.com

Source: Rival Energy Ltd.

[bigpike]

QIS comments:
QIS CAPITAL Comments:

The year-end results are disappointing given Rival's momentum going into the fourth quarter; however, it is important to note that were are very few junior producers that got the rigs they wanted during Q4 as rig availability has been extremely tight over the past 6 months. Originally, the company had scheduled the drilling of 7 wells by the end of 2005 and also planned to tie-in another 100 boepd which was behind pipe. These activities did not occur prior to year-end due to rig availability and other delays. Rival also lost a few wells in late November which watered out prematurely.

Rival’s production should return to previous levels and regain record territory once drilling rigs have been secured and the company can implement on its drilling plans.

We were able to take some profit on Rival in the $2.30 to $2.50 range after an impressive run over the last 6 months of 2005. Now that the share price has drifted back to the $1.50 level, Rival is presently trading at only 2.5 to 2.7 times a more conservative cash flow forecast for 2006. It should also be pointed out that Rival has actually reduced its commodity price forecast for 2006, a move that will likely precede many other oil and gas producers

[CrocHntr]

Production averaged 887 boe/d for Q4. That's disappointing compared with our (already lowered) expectations of close to 1,100 boe/d. No wonder the stock made a significant correction from it's highs. Cash flow was only .13/sh. for Q4 (not quite up to expectations). Of course, most of this has already been factored in to the lower share price of late, but I'm disappointed in the production figure.

We do have 100 boe/d behind pipe at Killian that should come on by Q2 at the latest. Also, it looks like Rival botched a re-entry of a gas well before YE 2005 that was expected to produce 1mmcf/d (166 boe/d) net to Rival. This hurt significantly, and Rival hasn't decided whether to re-drill the well or not.

The 2006 Guidance looks promising:

This capital program will be funded from cash flow and available bank lines. Rival currently budgets cash flow of $10-12 million, or $0.55 to $0.60 per share for calendar 2006. This forecast incorporates a WTI price of $57 per barrel and an AECO natural gas price averaging $8.00 per thousand cubic feet. The Company believes these targets are achievable based upon its prospect inventory, its historical drilling success and the continuation of attractive prices for both commodities.

It looks like our original forecasts for Rival were ahead of themselves by 6 months or so.

[Bobwins]

I redid my numbers, lowered production estimate to 1100 avg, price to C$58(oil is higher, ngas is lower). Came up with eps of .084 and c/f of .156 for qtr. Both are improvements over last qtr, just not as dramatic as I originally thought. If these production delays are weather related, then the original forecasts should come thru in subsequent qtrs as behind the pipe production comes online.

Bobwins

[Stockcracker]

BW re: Rival

Any new thoughts on the forecast and the company? Just wanted to check since you mentioned that you were going to look at the quarter.

[Stockcracker]

Nutsaboutgolf

I was only wondering if you or Bob had adjusted your forecasts. Bob had it almost dead-on last quarter.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

At this point in time it doesn't matter much what the revised fundamentals look like. It's on so many radar screens right now that it will continue to go up regardless. Any revised fundamentals might be disappointing to us but for all those who have never done any fundamental analysis of the company, the results will still appear extremely good. Plus remember q4 is not out yet so by the time we get to q1 results (say mid May), this puppy along with all of it's brothers and sisters will be a lot higher. To further my point Rival is one of Vector Vest's 10 top rated Canadian stocks and those ratings are based upon q3 results and recent stock price performance; when q4 results come out Rival's value (per VV) will go way up and will attract even more buying.

[Bobwins]

No, I need to revise the estimates in the Ibox. Apparently they had problems getting wells hooked up as well. Will do it tonight and revise. Bobwins

[Stockcracker]

Bobwins or Nuts

Are you guys revising your forecasts at all since the price of Ngas has dropped?

[hogfan2]

Keep on keepin on...hog

[bigpike]

Got it also. Hmm, it may show up on more radars now.
Might have to add more. There was a line in there that reminded me of you bobwins:

"The most successful investors are able to forecast cashflow in future quarters because changes in cashflow normally correspond to changes in share price."

[Bobwins]

I just got the email. Lots of info as usual. Rgylf at the absolute bottom of annualized cashflow based on q3 vs share price. Bobwins

[bigpike]

I just signed up for the report on the Iradesso website, so far havent received it.

[Bobwins]

Iradesso report is a qtrly publication comparing Canadian junior energy stocks. I think it came out today and Rival looked good in the comparisons with 50 other juniors. We know it's undervalued and now there's more proof. Company paid to have a profile included with this qtr's report. Not sure but that's my best guess. Bobwins

[10 bagger]

NUTS..Sea Drill..

This is no bet.. It's like plucking money off the trees...SDRL.no is the new one to own.. SDRLF is the US symbol.. It has a 120 page prospectous out a couple of months ago.. An easy 10-bagger from here.. hank

[SkepticalOptimist]

Any speculation on why we suddenly have so much volume today?

[bigpike]

Bobwins, thanks for pointing RGYLF out to me a while back.
Sometimes it takes a while for value to be recognized.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Coming out on Tuesday as I recall from their web site.

[Bobwins]

I went looking for the Iradesso report. I think it's still due to come out. Maybe Rival is in both!! The more press the better.

The QIS report did show their weak point, which is reserves. I think they are working on that by hiring the new land mgr and the two geologists to get them farm ins and additional acreage.

Bobwins

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Bobwins - The QIS Capital survey of Canadian oil and gas companies must have been the report that Rival was refering to (see post 30158 on main board). Both Rival and Expedition (also Grand Banks) have writeups as well. Looks like this report was just issued (market prices as of Dec 6). Looks good for our companies but they should all do even better in the next issue given increasing production this quarter.

[Bobwins]

bigpike, most Trusts don't buy unless production is in the 2,000boepd range and there are additional development sites( low risk) Might be early for Rival and they need to accumulate more land. Bobwins

[bigpike]

Saw the late day surge in NG so I added 2K more. Trying to free up some cash--wondering how likely a takeover candidate they are at current production.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Another site I use gives more info on natural gas futures, here is the link:

http://quotes.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/NG.html

Over the years my big wins have come from closely monitoring prices (e.g. CALM and egg prices, LUCY and milk and cheese prices, CLF and RIO and iron ore prices, FNX and nickel prices etc.). The rest sort of takes care of itself; that why my interest in the two sites I've sent and that's why my interest in natural gas prices and in drill rigs demand and pricing.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Well you are still ahead of me in the pick 6 contest, so that must be some consolation. Actually many of my big winners recently have been upon your recommendation - RGY, XPD, DZR, and then of course I've made a lot in CFK (a longer term holding, up 92 %) and UNT. Wish I had kept my iron ore stocks CLF and RIO, made lots of money but got out way too early. But I think this is just the second inning of 9 for natural gas stocks and certainly this is my largest bet ever on any one sector.

[Bobwins]

Thanks for the AECO info. Will put that in the storage bank of energy info. Will review the AECO site.

We'll see how our forecasts do. All will depend on how soon they hooked up the behind the pipe wells and whether they hit any new ones soon enough to influence q4 production.

As far as my portfolio returns, I am still recovering from the big 10/3 selloff. Only doing 23%ytd. Seems like I am waiting for a lot of them to take off, they just haven't. Options created a lot of havoc because when they went down, they really went down!!! Live and learn.

No complaints. Still doing fine. Would just like to do FINER! LOL! Bobwins

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Bobwins the AECO averages are per gigajoule, not per 1000 cu feet. A Gigajoule is about 946 cu feet. So multiply the price per gigajoule by 1.057 to get the price per 1000 cu feet. I think the average price including December (given a lot more volume in December than November) will be almost 20 % higher than last quarter's average and almost all of that (except for royalties will go to the bottom line).

The simple average AECO price for July-Sept was $8.78, if we use $12 as December's average (currently 12.87) then the simple average for Oct through December will be $10.85 which is 23.5 % higher. Frankly I think the December average price will be well above the $12 used in this calculation. The average for just October and November is $10.28 and even that very conservative number is 17.1 % higher. I prefer the comparisons (% changes) with last quarter but if you want to figure the price per barrel (equivalent), then it would be $10.85 X 6 X 1.057 or $69 a barrel. Note: If the 69 is correct then the 66 for last quarter is not, prices have certainly risen more than $3 per boe (as demonstrated above). That's why I prefer to look at the % changes and then apply them to the cash flow and income calculations.

I also think that the 1100 is far too conservative given prior press releases but 1175 to 1200 might be in the ballpark.

The AECO site is:

http://www.ngx.com/marketdata/NGXIASDIDX.html

Once again I really think his conservatism was really based on the fact that we had just come out of November when AECO prices averaged $8.79 or almost the same as the second quarter average. But October and December have been and will be great months. And yes costs are rising but offsetting that is the spreading of many costs across significantly higher production.

All in all I'd have to be way off in my projections for their share price not to be north of $3 in a couple of months.

By the way, we compared returns some months ago. That darn Canadian dollar keeps killing me but I'm now up 68 % (after all costs except income taxes) year to date.

[Bobwins]

I used C$67 for my forecast, which is what they made last qtr. I think it will be very close, based on the AECO averages so far. C$67/6=11.19/mmcf.

Where do you get the AECO averages??

My forecast will probably be off due to production. I used 1250 average and it will likely be more like 1100.

Should be fun to see them moving up in the Iradesso report and also see their profile. That should help them get some more investor attention. Bobwins

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Bobwins - thanks for the info. I thought they were in the last Iradeso report (quarter 2) and that they ranked very high. They should have a high rating again on the enterprize value to BOE production metric; of course their enterprize value has gone up a fair amount since the end of the quarter. They are probably being ultra conservative on pricing (and thus on everything that follows), remember while October was a good month for natural gas prices (AECO average 11.78 per GJ), November was off quite a bit ($8.79 per GJ). The recent uptrend in December prices will probably make their forecasts seem very low by the end of the quarter. Latest December price available = 12.87. For comparison purposes, AECO average prices for Sept (10.54), August (8.71) and July (7.08)

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Based upon my projected cash flow numbers, Rival should be able to fund all of its planned capital expenditures from operating cash flows. A lot of other small cap energy companies are going to the market these days with share and flow through share offerings.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Drill Prospects

Just saw the November presentation on the Rival web site. Of interest to me are the drilling prospects, 11 wells in the last quarter of this year and 25 prospects in total (several for 06). None of these require purchase of additional land etc. Looks to me like they will be able to show very good sustained growth of production and reserves over the next two quarters (most drilling takes place in 4th and 1st quarters). I'm more impressed than ever.

[bigpike]

This might be a useful site for monitoring gas/oil prices:

http://www.futuresource.com/markets/market.jsp?id=energy
the link provides a nice chart, it didnt copy and paste very well

Free: FutureSource
Energy Market Recap
Symbol Contract Month Time Last Chg Open High Low
CLF06 [30] Light Crude Oil Jan '06 15:05:02 59.32 s
0.85 58.47 59.55 58.15
HOF06 [30] Heating Oil Jan '06 15:03:09 1.7720 s
0.0333 1.7400 1.7900 1.7280
HUF06 [30] Unleaded Gas Jan '06 15:14:34 1.6113 s
0.0487 1.5580 1.6185 1.5564
PNF06 [30] Propane Gas Jan '06 13:24:08 1.0100 s
0.0325 0.9950 1.0100 0.9950
NGF06 [30] Natural Gas Jan '06 15:28:44 13.931 s
0.904 13.030 13.950 12.960
JMZ05 [30] ClearPort: PJM Financiall Dec '05 17:06:49 106.53 s
8.17 106.53 106.53

Delayed data retrieved on Dec 03 20:21:11 GMT • All quotes are in exchange local time • Data provided by FutureSource

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

So $4 Canadian as a target price seems to be our concensus at least for the next few months, we'll have to look at reserves and how exactly they plan to spend the 12 to 15 million capital budget before we can look further out. Suffice it to say that if natural gas prices hold from here, the projections can only go higher with time.

[Crucible401]

One also needs to account for the US/Canadian exchange rate fluctuations.

Canadians look at cashflow as the best metric for junior energy companies, so looking at earnings to estimate whether or not the shares will appreciate is not too valid a metric. But if that's what makes you comfortable, go for it.

And it is production growth that is usually the key driver, not commodity prices. Production growth (or lack of it) usually trumps commodity prices. If Rival exits at 1200 boed, just extrapolating Q3 numbers, that's $0.20 CF. And presuming modest success in '06 with their expanded capex (say 1500 boed ave), that's ~$1 fully dilluted CF.

Typical Canadian juniors trade 4x-8x FDCFPS. Juniors such as Rival will trade at the low end due to uncertain management and land/growth issues.

Still, 4x cf = $4 in '06, which is a double from here. I was kicking myself when I passed up buying at $0.90 earlier in the year (even though I figure the company was worth $2 based on cf) and saw it run to $1.80 or so a few months ago. When it came back down to the $1.30 range a few weeks ago, I started buying. And when earnings came out, I bought a ton at ~$1.50.

I would expect nitwits to take profits after this runnup, especially if oil or gas prices drop. But that is a temporary buying opp imo.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

The problem is the estimated financials change almost daily - natural gas prices (futures) were up 85 cents today and most of that came at the end of the day. A dollar higher natural gas price should add an additional 2 cents to quarterly earnings and 3 cents to quarterly cash flow. At eight times earnings that could add 64 cents to the fair market price (2 cents x 4 quarters x 8 PE). At four times cash flow that would potentially add 48 cents to the fair market price. So while RGY.V was up 20 cents today, the fair market price has probably increased even further and yes you had better hope for some unseasonally mild weather if you are hoping to buy it at less than today's closing price. Good luck.

[bigpike]

I am arguing with myself where to buy--I had an order in the day before it started spiking, and then pouted that I didnt get it.
Could have bought again yesterday, but noooo, I keep looking back at what I could have bought it for. Is it too much to ask for
a couple day warm-spell?

[Bobwins]

bigpike... Lentinman wouldn't do anything because he is frozen to his chair!!!! LOL! His fingers are frozen, too!

Looks like Rival is settling a bit. Just remember those numbers. C$1+ cashflow vs 1.98 price. It's going to look different by next summer. Should be a double+.

Bobwins

[bigpike]

I was tempted to add today, but having gotten burned buying into rallies, I thought "what would Len do?" <gg>.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Bobwins I redid my financial projections for Rival based on the assumption that prices will average 20 % more in the forth quarter than in the third quarter (see my postings on main board about average natural gas prices), I am now predicting 14 cents of earnings and 28 cents of cash flow. But I'm simply maintaining my $4 target price for now. All numbers in Canadian dollars.

[10 bagger]

OT Brown

Today Brown is E'trade.. any thoughts or bad experences to pass along would be appreciated..hank

[Bobwins]

This happens periodically with Ameritrade. Call them by phone and tell them you can't get a quote and for them to manually request that rgylf be reactivated. Be sure to get the internet price for any trades you have to request by phone.

OR it could mean that I have closed down that scam stock symbol and left for Canada with the money!!! LOL!

Bobwins


PS. You are doing pretty good in the picksix contest for having picked your stocks with little thought or effort. Congrats.