Here's my estimates for Q2. I continue to hold Rival. They disappointed again in Q1 with low production that they blamed on lack of equipment. For Q2, they disclosed that they have successfully drilled 6 wells in Q2.
Here are my assumptions for Q2
925 boepd avg production
Avg price 55.297/boepd
Net income $1,226,237 or .06
Cashflow $2,440,088 or .12
4 X.12= .48 forward annualized cashflow vs 1.50 price. P/CF multiple of 3, which is still on the low side.
.06X4= .24 forward annualized eps or P/E of 6
Rival is still undervalued. They need to show some dramatic production increases to make up for the last two disappointing qtrs and prove that they can boost production significantly beyond 1,000boepd. They are fairly well balanced with oil/ngas about 55/45%.
Bobwins
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