Production averaged 887 boe/d for Q4. That's disappointing compared with our (already lowered) expectations of close to 1,100 boe/d. No wonder the stock made a significant correction from it's highs. Cash flow was only .13/sh. for Q4 (not quite up to expectations). Of course, most of this has already been factored in to the lower share price of late, but I'm disappointed in the production figure.
We do have 100 boe/d behind pipe at Killian that should come on by Q2 at the latest. Also, it looks like Rival botched a re-entry of a gas well before YE 2005 that was expected to produce 1mmcf/d (166 boe/d) net to Rival. This hurt significantly, and Rival hasn't decided whether to re-drill the well or not.
The 2006 Guidance looks promising:
This capital program will be funded from cash flow and available bank lines. Rival currently budgets cash flow of $10-12 million, or $0.55 to $0.60 per share for calendar 2006. This forecast incorporates a WTI price of $57 per barrel and an AECO natural gas price averaging $8.00 per thousand cubic feet. The Company believes these targets are achievable based upon its prospect inventory, its historical drilling success and the continuation of attractive prices for both commodities.
It looks like our original forecasts for Rival were ahead of themselves by 6 months or so.
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