Redman''s

[EquityTrader]

Yes, SP...$.08s on WNRC look good, would soak up what you can while you can at that price...not any more.

[tenenbaum]

Thanks a lot, Adam. I was thinking along the same lines.

[redman_2014]

I did 2/3rd's, but suspect I may be able to buy back some warrants after the exchange for cheaper than they are selling for today so it will probably be around 50/50 in the end.

You are right about the raise being sub 7.50. I expect the same.

Adam

[tenenbaum]

Thanks for this, Adam.

My feeling is that a capital raise is most likely both to improve liquidity and fund capex.

The terms of the warrants concern me a bit, though.

From the F-4:
"However, the warrants will not be adjusted for issuances of common stock, preferred stock or other securities at a price below their respective exercise prices. "

I think that this makes it likely that the raise will be <$7.5 ... which is insanely cheap, imo.

At the end of the day, I'm trying to figure out how many warrants are worth holding on to. What's your plan for the conversion?

[redman_2014]

Hi tenenbaum,

I thought CCLTF's Q2 numbers were very good, and I agree everything does seem to be on track. The capex on the old facility was surprising but it might have to do with them still not being able to keep up with demand since they outsourced a good chunk of production this quarter.

Based on my rough calculations they barely have enough cash coming in + cash on hand to cover capex for the rest of 2010. They have $10M cash plus an estimated $17M earned in Q3 and Q4, so a total of $27M, and they have $26M in planned capex, so I expect to see them source out a $10M to $15M bank loan, or do an equivalent capital raise.

I'm not 100% sure which direction they will go to raise the cash because there are conflicting issues. The bank loan causes no dilution and therefore doesn't interfere with their chances of reaching their compensation target of a stock price of $20/share, but a capital raise will continue to improve liquidity and may be a short-term setback but a long-term positive in reaching that same $20 price target.

I'm somewhat leaning towards the thinking that they will do a capital raise because the warrant exchange will probably only add about 3M new shares to the float, so a capital raise in the 2-3M share range will quickly double their liquidity without hitting any anti-dilution clauses for the warrants that remain outstanding.

I'm very positive for the future of China Ceramics. Management continues to impress me and I feel in very good hands.

Hope all is going well with you.

-Adam

[tenenbaum]

Hi Adam,

Hope all is well!

What did you think of CCLTF's Q2 numbers? Everything looks on track as far as can tell, although, I think we're probably going to get a financing here at some point in the near future just to keep the capex on track.

What are the most likely outcomes you see happening here and how do you see that affecting earning for 2010 and 2011?

[tenenbaum]

Hi Adam,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and research with the community on this board. I am wondering what your current thoughts are on LPIH. I notice that it no longer appears on your radar and did not make your top stock list in the recent CGS board vote.

It seems that the current pps given their guidance as well as a near-term uplist still make this an attractive pick. Please share your thoughts and thank you again for maintaining this board.

-Ken

[redman_2014]

That was my conclusion as well. I love CNYD's business model. Synergy at it's best. Hopefully they are able to acquire a station at an attractive price. I guess they have a year or two to search one out since the grand openings of the two new tourism spots are in 2012 and they probably won't begin actively marketing them until maybe 6-9 months before.

-Adam

[throwerw]

They mentioned that they wanted to buy another television station... perhaps it will be in one of those provinces.

Traveling by train in China is awesome, btw.

[redman_2014]

CCLTF - Email from IR.

Adam;

I am working on providing sales breakdown and will let you know when i have it. Management does not expect to be affected by current measures... at this point. As governments move to create affordable homes, China Ceramics expects to benefit...

regards,

Ed Job, CFA
Cel: +(86) 1381-699-7314

------------------------------------------------------------------

So the way I read it is: management believes the company's sales will not be affected by the tightening that has already taken place, but the ramifications of any further policy initiatives is an unknown. And the governments affordable home program will take a while to implement, but once it does China Ceramics will be supplying tile for those homes..


-Adam

[redman_2014]

SEC Form Types and Definitions
Here is a very handy link for quick reference to sec filings and what the are for....
http://learn.westlawbusiness.com/support/formtypes.html


From Burp. Thanks.


-Adam

[redman_2014]

CNYD - New Tourism Destination Locations

I just plotted the two new tourism destinations and Bengbu City(Anhui Province) is 1,100km away from Fuzhou City, Fujian Province(Yida Headquarters) and Zhangshu City(Jiangxi Province) is 600km away from head office.

I am just curious what their intentions are in terms of marketing and promotion since both destinations lie outside Fujian Province and I doubt their T.V. station has much coverage beyond the borders. I might have to pose this question to management if no one else already has the answer.

Based on the PR's I think their train advertising segment must be taking on a greater degree of importance since both locations mentioned their proximity to railway lines. The Bengbu location is very close to the future Beijing-Shanghai line, and Zhangshu location has two railway lines connecting Zhangshu with Beijing, Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province.


-Adam

[redman_2014]

CNYD - Yang-sheng Tourism Project(completion 2012)

China Yida Announces China Yang-sheng (Nourishing Life) Tourism Project in Jiangxi Province
FUZHOU, China, April 22, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- China Yida Holding Company /quotes/comstock/15*!cnyd/quotes/nls/cnyd (CNYD 13.24, -0.03, -0.23%) ("China Yida" or the "Company"), a leading diversified entertainment enterprise in China, today announced that it has entered into an agreement with Zhangshu Municipal Government to develop China Yang-sheng (Nourishing Life) tourism project (the "Project"), a large-scale vacation destination covering a total area of approximately 6000 Mu (approximately 988 acres as 1 acre = 6.07 Mu), in Zhangshu City, Jiangxi Province. The Project is designed to focus on the theme of famous Taoist practice - Yang-sheng (Nourishing Life), with Zhangshu City's rare natural resources - salt water hot spring, and reputation as one of China's traditional medicine and herb centers. Yang-sheng (Nourishing Life) is the foundation of Taoist lifestyle, which is still desired and actively pursued within today's Asian community.

The Project will be developed approximately 2 kilometers from Zhangshu's downtown, and within one hour travel from the adjacent airport or Nanchang, the capital city of Jiangxi Province. In addition, the Project is on the route from Nanchang to Lu Mountain, a World Natural Heritage site, and Jing-Gang Mountain, one of the most popular political education tourism destinations as it was at the origin of Chairman Mao's military force. In addition to several highways, there are two railway lines connecting Zhangshu with Beijing, Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province. The Company estimates the Project will be very accessible to a population of over 50 million within the 3-hour economic circle of influence.

Other than its location, the Project will also benefit from other advantages brought by Zhangshu City to potentially develop into one of China's premier Yang-sheng (Nourishing Life) vacation destinations.


(1) The region is endowed with rare resource of salt water hot spring, where visitors can float on the water due to over 25% of salinity. The salt water hot spring also contains over 40 mineral and microelements, including Na+, K+, Mg+, Br-, and I-, all proven to be beneficial to human health. Due to its rareness, the salt water hot spring could become the centerpiece of a Project to attract visitors who pursue life wellness.

(2) Zhangshu City, as one of the four major Chinese traditional medicine centers attracts a large number of medicine dealers, manufacturers and distributors, especially during the one-month annual Chinese traditional medicine and herb trade expo held in October. For over 1800 years, Zhangshu City is viewed as being associated with health and wellness of life, which could be used to extend the Project beyond a traditional hot spring destination.

(3) The Zhangshu region is the home of "Site", a famous Chinese Baijiu (White Wine). Originated from Taoist practice, moderate use of Chinese Baijiu is considered to be beneficial to human health. With Zhangshu's deep Chinese Baijiu culture background, the Project could reflect the merger of Chinese Baijiu culture with Taoist Yang-sheng practice.

(4) Zhangshu is considered as the birthplace of Taoist's Lingbao School, an important Taoist school that created the Yang-sheng philosophy and practice. The Company's management believes that the Project could consolidate Zhangshu City's geographic advantages, unique natural resources, long history, and Yang-sheng culture, to become a premium Yang-sheng (Nourishing Life) vacation destination that reflects China Yida's Yang-sheng concept - "Wellness, Happiness, Lifestyle and Longevity."


The capital expenditure planned for the first development phase of Project is estimated at approximately RMB250 million (approximately $36.6 million), which includes the construction of the Salt Water Hot Spring Spa & Health Center (the "SPA Center"), the Yang-sheng Holiday Resort (the "Resort Hotel"), in-destination roads and lakes, and the purchase of the land use rights for a parcel of approximately 3000 Mu (approximately 494 acres, commercial and residential land use, the "Commercial Land") as well as the rental payment for a parcel of approximately 3000 Mu (approximately 494 acres) with the annual rent estimated at RMB0.5 million (approximately $73,300).

Management expects that the SPA Center and the Resort Hotel will be open to the public by the end of 2012. Management thinks that the total number of visitors in the first twelve months following the grand opening is expected to reach approximately 300,000, contributing approximately $14.6 million to its sales revenues and approximately $7.3 million to its net income. The payback period of the first development phase is estimated to be within 4 years after the grand opening.

The Company's management believes that it will be able to fund the first development phase of Project and the first phase of the Bengbu project (please see Company's press release on April 15, 2010 and its current report on Form 8-K on April 16, 2010) from current cash and operating cash flow over the next two years, and does not expect to require additional equity financing. After the SPA Center and the Resort Hotel start operation, the Company expects to obtain loans from local banks backed by fixed assets, including significantly appreciated land.

In addition to the SPA Center and the Resort Hotel, Company plans to build additional attractions on the Project site that may include the World Yang- sheng Cultural Museum, the International Camphor Tree Garden, the Chinese Medicine & Herb Museum, the Yang-sheng Sports Club, the Old Town of Chinese Traditional Medicine and other Yang-sheng related projects and tourism real estate projects. The Company is now conducting in-depth research, evaluation and preparation on these plans.

In return for China Yida's proven track record of tourism destinations' management and execution abilities in China as well as its long-term investment commitment to make its project successful, the Zhangshu Municipal Government is providing the following preferential arrangements to assist the Company's project development:

1. Low Cost of Land. Zhangshu Municipal Government agreed to return revenues from land use right transfer in excess of RMB8,000 per Mu to China Yida for infrastructural developments and constructions. Based on the current price of approximately RMB1.5 million per Mu for commercial land at Zhangshu City's downtown which is 2 kilometers from the Project, the 3000 Mu Commercial Land will become one of Company's most valuable appreciating assets. Although the management does not intend to develop any commercial real estate at this time, they believe it is rare for the private entity like China Yida to be able to obtain such a large piece of commercial use land in cities like Zhangshu with large economic growth potential, especially China Yida has full rights on this 3000 Mu Commercial Land, such as re-sell and pledge.

2. Full Rights on Commercial Use Land. Pursuant to the Company's agreement with Zhangshu Municipal Government, the Company has the right to develop and sell residential villas up to half size of the Commercial Land, i.e. 1500 Mu. The management expects to accrue significant benefits from this right, even management were to decide to just re-sell the land based on today's approximately RMB1.5 million per Mu at Zhangshu City's downtown which is 2 kilometers away.

3. Exclusivity. Zhangshu Municipal Government has agreed not to approve any additional salt water hot spring or related tourism projects to any third parties to protect the exclusivity of the Project. The exclusivity of the Project will ensure its uniqueness and protect its profitability in the long term. The Zhangshu Municipal Government will also try to list the Project as a Key Project at municipal and provincial level so as to obtain the financial support from senior levels of government.

4. Preferential Tax Treatments. Zhangshu Municipal Government will try its best to minimize the operating expenses of the Project. It will waive 100% of the income tax for the first two years commencing from the grand opening and 50% for the subsequent three years. It will also waive the salt water hot spring resources tax and tourism resources tax within the Project's whole life. In addition, it will waive or reduce most of the administration fees throughout the Project's constructions. It will also allow China Yida to pay for its outdoor lighting at a cheaper rate as of city's street lighting.

"Through the accumulation of our experience and growth of China Yida's brand recognition after many years of practice, I believe China Yida has entered an era of high-speed growth," commented Dr. Minhua Chen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of China Yida, "Due to Chinese Central Government's plan to accelerate the growth rate of China's tourism industry, a company like China Yida with rich tourism management experience is going to play a more important role in the market place. At the same time, our value will continue to grow with the expansion of China's tourism industry due to the scarcity of capable players like us who can bring China's local tourism resources onto the world stage. We are committed to building a firm foundation for Company's long-term growth and shareholder value."


-Adam

[soulstealer]

sounds on the same lines as the yahoo post earlier this week. Thanks for letting us know. Hopefully, the first answer means the move to nasdaq will happen. GL.

[Danduedil67]

Adam...sshhhh

I'm in no hurry to see the common spike and have my warrants get called until I've had them for at least a year!!

I got in when they were HOL warrants, and the tax man would kill me on if I sold short term. And I don't want to have to come up with the cash to convert to common and thus reset the clock for the LT gain.... as I had to do on CCME.

-Dan

[redman_2014]

CCLTF/CCLWF - I just realized that China Ceramics does not have proper financials on either yahoo or google due to their 10-K not being released yet(same problem as CCME).

I know many will not care because it didn't help CCME one ioda, but the difference with CCLTF is that it will automatically be flagged as a value stock due to it's trailing PE being 2.57($8.90 stock price/$3.46 EPS), whereas CCME was not since it's value is more hidden.

Just food for thought.


-Adam

[Danduedil67]

Good stuff Adam.

Thank you for sharing.

-Dan

[redman_2014]

CCME - Email reply from Jacky Lam

Hi Adam,

Sorry for the late reply as I am busy traveling. Pls refer to the following for my response.

1. Mgt is actively arranging a lot of meetings and conferences with the investors. Regarding the transfer to the NASDAQ, we are discussing this but due to the confidentiality, I cannot disclose anything to you.

2. The cash will be used for potential M&A and the new outdoor media projects.

3. We do not have a specific target number of new buses for 2011 and 2012 right now.

Regards

Jacky Lam



My Questions To Him:

1) Publicly Listed Company: I believe management has good intentions with regards to raising shareholder value and I was just wondering what steps they are taking in order to achieve their goals? The investing community does not seem to understand CME or it's underlying value, and I don't think it helps that CCME is traded on the AMEX. Will CCME move to nasdaq? How is management generating institutional awareness?

2) Use of Cash: Is all the cash on hand (and cash generated from operations) going towards the expansion of CME's network, or is management still pursuing an accreditive acquisition?

3) CME is targeting 30,000 buses in their network by the end of 2010. Does management have any targets for 2011 and 2012?


-Adam

[Danduedil67]

I like your dreaming...

$7.5 eps.... move to NAS ... get a 20 P/E ... PPS goes to $150

.... ahhhh retirement before 50.


(Sounds a little like a credit card commercial... but I'll take it!)

-Dan

[BiotechValues]

Agree completely with you Adam.

I patient.

[soulstealer]

Thanks Adam. Your replies did not appear before for some reason. Appreciate the DD. Its almost funny that they can raise their CPM 5 times and still be less than competitors.

<Dreaming> Raise CPM 5 times, guidance raised to 375$ mil, eps of 7.5$ :D </Dreaming>

[redman_2014]

CCME is definitely a longer-term hold and I think that is why a lot of people on this board are getting upset. A lot of traders were hoping for some quick gains and it didn't happen.

Who knows why the market is using it for a football. Another quarterly report or two of good results and I doubt it will continue to be held down. CCME's financial performance will eventually be very difficult to ignore.


- Adam

[BiotechValues]

CCME- stock acts like a dog though despite all the positives.

[soulstealer]

Thanks Fernando. Appreciate it.

[redman_2014]

CCME CPM Rates: from the Analyst Report

CCME’s advertising rates are substantially lower than intra-city buses and local television. The cost per thousand (CPM) rates that CCME charges is just 13% of equivalent intra-city bus and 2% of local television rates despite CCME’s large network and positive attributes. CCME’s large discount to these alternative mediums provides flexibility to raise rates with no decline in demand for its inventory which is currently experiencing close to 100% utilization.


CCME vs. VISN
(In RMB for every 15 seconds)

Guangzhou 3 vs 17
Nanjing 3 vs 30
Beijing 2 vs 26
Average 3 vs 21


-Adam

[redman_2014]

Thanks Fernando.

My info was spread out a bit. That report is more succinct.


-Adam

[Drexion2004]

Here you go, some CPM rate comparison information is in this report.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2VB07TA2

-Fernando

[redman_2014]

VISN Utilization Rate(estimated) at 45.7%:

1) 35,000 hours broadcasting capacity/per quarter
2) Assuming similar 25% mix(30 mins programming/10 mins ads)
3) 8,700 maximum ad hours/per quarter
4) 3,974 hours ads sold in quarter
5) Utilization rate is (3,974/8,700) = 45.7%


CCME's utilization rate is in the range of 97%.


-Adam

[redman_2014]

CCME - Summary

Revenue:

2006 - $4M
2007 - $25.8M
2008 - $63M
2009 - $95M
2009E - $104.2M
2010E - $196.6M
2011E - $305.5M

Net Income:

2006 - $0.9M
2007 - $7M
2008 - $26.4M
2009 - $41.7M
2009E - $42M
2010E - $83.6M
2011E - $130.3M
2012E - $169.2M


Net Margin:

2006 - 22.5%
2007 - 27.13%
2008 - 41.9%
2009 - 43.9%
2009 Q3 - 44.8%


Based on current estimates, CME expects its capital expenditures in the future to primarily consist of:
• approximately $1,000 on equipment and a control system for each bus added to its network as it expands its geographic coverage and increases the number of inter-city express buses within its network; and

• approximately $150,000 per bus station and less than $100 per bus to upgrade CME’s technological capability to change programs and advertisements from a manual system to local wireless network technology; CME’s expects that the number of bus stations and number of buses that will be upgraded with the wireless network technology will be approximately 255 and 31,000, respectively, by the end of 2010.

CCME's portion of market:
'CME believes it operates the largest television advertising network on inter-city express buses in China. According to CTR Market Research, as of July 31, 2008, CME’s advertising network accounted for 81% of all inter-city express buses installed with hard disk drive players and 55% of all inter-city express buses installed with any type of television display.CME believes it has achieved the scale of operations that is not only attractive to advertisers but also allow it to capitalize on cost synergies. CME’s network with over 16,000 inter-city express buses covers all four municipalities and seven economically prosperous provinces in China. The large number of inter-city express buses in CME’s network in economically prosperous regions in China has enabled it to attract a significant number of clients. During 2008, more than 400 advertisers directly or indirectly purchased advertising time on CME’s network.'

Effectiveness of advertising network:
'CME believes its network is a highly effective and efficient. According to a survey conducted by CTR Market Research in July 2008 on bus services originating in eight major cities, on average, 81% of all passengers said they had watched the television displays on CME’s network, and almost 80% said they regularly watched the displays on the network.According to a survey conducted by CTR Market Research in July 2008 on bus services originating in eight major cities, the average duration of a journey on buses within CME’s network took two and a half hours. As CME displays advertisements in ten-minute blocks after every 30 minutes of entertainment content, the audiences can potentially view the same advertisement up to three times per journey. CME believes repeated exposure to the same advertisement significantly increases its effectiveness.'

Advertising Cost Per Minute(CPM):
CCME range - 2.14 to 3.61
Local T.V. Channel range - 59.00 to 317.00
*(In RMB for every 15 seconds)

Methods to increase advertising revenue:
• Sell first few minutes of the advertising time slots at higher rates.
• Expand the coverage and penetration of its advertising network. CME believes expanded coverage and penetration of its advertising network would increase the effectiveness and attractiveness of its network to advertisers, thereby enabling it to increase its average advertising rates.
• Capture increased advertising spending on its advertising network from its clients. CME intends to compete for a larger portion of its clients’ advertising budget relative to other media. CME believes increased demand for advertising time on its network will enable it to charge higher average advertising rates. CME’s network is capable of reaching a large audience in transit who are otherwise more difficult or expensive to reach through conventional media.
• Enhance the effectiveness of its advertising network.
• Attract national and international brand name advertisers to purchase its advertising time.
• Increasing the advertisements to entertainment content ratio. By increasing the length of the advertising time slot relative to the length of entertainment content, CME can increase the amount of advertising time available for sale. CME believes an optimal mix of advertisements and entertainment content will enable it to maximize revenues.

CCME's Annual Advertising Minutes Sold:
'CME’s sales of advertising time slots increased significantly from a total of 196 minutes in the year ended December 31, 2006 to a total of 1,680 minutes in the year ended December 31, 2007 and to a total of the 2,240 minutes in the year ended December 31, 2008.'

Bus Operator Agreements:
CME has entered into long-term framework agreements (including the supplementary agreements, if any) with 40 inter-city express bus operators in China to install its equipment and control systems and display entertainment programs and advertisements for a term ranging from five to eight years. These agreements will begin to expire December 31, 2011.

Future Growth:
'To meet the demand of advertisers for broader network coverage, CME must continue to expand the coverage of its network by increasing the number of inter-city express buses within its network and expanding into new provinces and regions not currently included in its network. By the end of 2009, CME plans to expand into six more provinces: Shandong, Zhejiang, Hunan, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning. By the end of 2010, CME plans to expand into another three provinces: Yunnan, Guangxi and Shanxi. CME also plans to increase the number of airport shuttle buses and tour buses included in its network. In addition, CME plans to expand its network to other transportation vehicles, such as shuttle buses servicing the commute between supermarkets and residential communities in China and expand its business into other media platforms such as stationary adverting media at bus terminals.'

Other Sources Of Revenue:
• Generate revenues from the display of soft advertisements packaged as entertainment content. CME seeks to generate revenues from displaying entertainment programs which are effectively soft advertisements, for a variety of products and services. Examples of such advertisements include travel programs featuring hotels, restaurants and tourist destinations, and fashion shows featuring lines of clothing being the subject of promotion.

• Establish stationary advertising media. CME intends to establish stationary advertising media at inter-city express bus terminals to complement its business. These include digital billboards or liquid emitting diodes, or LEDs, installed at bus terminals to target passengers during their waiting time. CME expects this expansion would increase the value of its network by increasing the size of the audience reachable and by extending the exposure for advertisers. In addition to providing an additional source of revenue, CME believes this initiative would increase demand for its services and enable it to charge higher rates.

• Offer new services to advertisers and passengers. CME intends to feature hotels, spa resorts, local restaurants on its network while displaying the logo, telephone numbers and other contact information of relevant service providers and charge advertising fees. In addition, CME plans to handle bookings through call centers or short messages for the convenience of passengers who are attracted to relevant services featured on its network. CME plans to share revenues resulting from bookings through call centers or short messages with relevant service providers participating in its value-added service programs. CME may also seek to provide drinks sponsored by advertisers or offer other merchandise for sale on the inter-city express buses carrying its network.

Bus Operator Size:
'For the years ended December 31, 2007 and December 31, 2008, the amount of concession fees paid to the top ten bus operators participating in its network accounted for 62.3% and 61.0%, respectively of total concession fees paid to all bus operators participating in its network. Currently, more than one-fifth of inter-city express buses carrying its network are operated by three bus operators participating in its network.'

Customer Concentration:
'CME derives a majority of its revenues from a limited number of advertising clients. For the year ended December 31, 2008, revenues generated from its top ten clients and the single largest client accounted for 64.3% and 7.6%, respectively, of its total revenues.'

T.V Station Cooperation Agreement:
'On September 1, 2006, CME entered into a cooperation agreement with Fujian SouthEastern Television Channel for a term of nine years starting from September 1, 2006 to August 31, 2015. In addition, on August 25, 2008, CME entered into a cooperation agreement with Hunan Satellite Television for a term of two years starting from September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010. As a result, CME obtains a wide range of free entertainment programs from Fujian SouthEastern Television Channel and Hunan Satellite Television each month.'

Automation Technology:
'On August 1, 2008, Zheng Cheng, Fujian Fenzhong and Hangzhou Yusong entered into a patent licensing agreement pursuant to which Hangzhou Yusong obtained a license to manufacture its equipment and control systems based on CME’s patented technology. According to the patent licensing agreement, Hangzhou Yusong is subject to confidentiality obligations to keep the production procedures or other information necessary for the production of CME’s patented automated control systems in strict confidence.'


-Adam

[soulstealer]

hey adam,
i remember you posting the CPM rates comparison between CCME VISN and other companies before on yahoo mb. If you have it in your notes can you post it once more please. I went through the 10-k again yesterday, for my sanity, and I am still stumped by the low low CPM CCME charges.

[redman_2014]

CCME CNYD CCLWF PUDA SOKF NEP YONG CNAM NEWN

[soulstealer]

That would be interesting to know. This warrant overhang definitely effects the stock performance and till the warrants are not redeemed stock is not liquid enough. Move to nasdaq would be better than any PR now I suppose. Nice earnings had zero effect.

"I haven't asked yet but am wondering if management would ever entertain a cashless conversion for the warrants. I plan on asking IR sometime in the near future."

[redman_2014]

I don't know if they will require the funds from the warrant redemption for the $20M 2011 capex. They are guiding to earn over $31M in 2011, so they may decide to get a short-term loan to cover them until they have generated enough from operations. IR has stated they will be able to cover the 2010 expansion from cash on hand and cash from operations. If they do require capital I think it will be short-term in nature and will be for only a portion of the $20M.

I haven't asked yet but am wondering if management would ever entertain a cashless conversion for the warrants. I plan on asking IR sometime in the near future.


-Adam

[soulstealer]

At this rate, wonder when the price will reach 14's and warrants get redeemed. They probably at least 20 mil for 2011.

[redman_2014]

CCLWF Projections using current warrant price of $1.32

Share price: $8.95
Shares o/s: 8.9M
Warrant price: $1.32
Warrant strike price: $7.50
Warrants o/s: 15.55M(will raise $116.5M when converted)

The projections include the cash and use 25.7M o/s(includes the warrants) and are based on announced 2009 numbers:

2009 Net Income = $26.20M($1.02 eps using 25.7M o/s)
$8.95(share price) - $4.57(cash) = $4.38 adjusted share price.
$4.38/$1.02(Expected 2010 eps) = PE of 4.29

Projections for price of common(using 2009 eps of $1.02):

PE of 5 = $9.67(intrinsic value of warrants = $2.17)
PE of 6 = $10.69(intrinsic value of warrants = $3.19)
PE of 7 = $11.71(intrinsic value of warrants = $4.21)
PE of 8 = $12.73(intrinsic value of warrants = $5.23)
PE of 9.5 = $14.25(intrinsic value of warrants = $6.75)

Warrant potential:

Share price of $11 = $3.50(165% upside)
Share price of $12 = $4.50(241% upside)
Share price of $13 = $5.50(317% upside)
Share price of $14.25 = $6.75(411% upside)


Summary:
Using the cash method for the warrants it only requires a trailing PE of 9.5(which brings the o/s to 25.7M) to make it to the $14.25 redemption price for the warrants. It currently has a PE of 4.34 on a trailing 2009 basis.


-Adam

[redman_2014]

China Redstone Group - Symbol APBS becomes 'CGPI'

China Redstone Group, Inc. Announces Name Change From Artistry Publications, Inc.; New Trading Symbol 'CGPI'

PR Newswire

CHONGQING, China, April 7

CHONGQING, China, April 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --

China Redstone Group, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: CGPI) (formerly OTC Bulletin Board: APBS) ("China Redstone" or the "Company"), the largest private provider of cemetery products and services in Chongqing, China, today announced that it has changed its name from Artistry Publications, Inc. to China Redstone Group, Inc. effective April 6, 2010. In connection with this name change to China Redstone Group, Inc., as of the open of business on April 7, 2010, the Company has the following new trading symbol: "CGPI."

The purpose of the name change is to better reflect the Company's position as a leading developer and provider of cemetery products and services in China. China Redstone provides a complete range of funeral merchandise and services, including well-located, highly sought after cemetery property. The Company currently has 94 acres of available land for cemetery development, 80% of which is still undeveloped. Growth for cemetery products and services in China is expected to grow rapidly due to current demographic trends including aging and urbanization of the country's population. China Redstone, which has 10% of the cemetery market and plans to sell at least 5,000 to 7,000 graves annually, expects the new corporate name to more effectively brand and position the Company, its products and services among potential customers, as well as its recognition among current and potential investors.

"China Redstone is well positioned to participate as a leader in the growing death care industry, which was cited in 2008 as the third most profitable industry in China by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the PRC," stated Mr. Yiyou Ran, Chairman of the Board of China Redstone. "Our new corporate name reinforces our strong position in this industry as we leverage our premium cemetery plots and funeral home services to meet growing market demand resulting in strong future operating and financial performance."

China Redstone Group, Inc.

China Redstone Group, Inc. is a cemetery developer and provider of cemetery products and services in Chongqing, China through its contractually controlled affiliate Chongqing Foguang Tourism Development. Founded in 2002, the Company provides a complete range of funeral merchandise and services, including cemetery property, both at the time of need and on a preneed basis. Its cemeteries are highly regarded in terms of a number of factors such as tradition, reputation, physical size, capacity of business, available supply, name recognition, aesthetics and potential for development or expansion.

[redman_2014]

CCME - Conference Call Summary:
1) Chairman thinks the CPM rates will equalize with direct competitors in the coming years as they strengthen their client-base (Its currently as low as 1/6th the CPM compared to VISN in same geographic area).
2) Direct-ad client CPM is roughly 15% higher than ad-agency clients
3) Ad-Inventory utilization is an amazing 97% giving plenty of pricing power.
4) 15% CPM raise in Q1 2010.
5) Guidance only includes current revenue streams/buses/contracts (Includes embedded ads but not soft ads, stationary media at bus-terminals, or new-services with hotels/local-attractions/etc)
6) Bus network still going to 30k by end of 2010.
7) Being prudent to make wise acquisitions since they may very well hit 2010 earn-out without any acquisitions.
8) Margins will remain roughly the same in 2010 (I think they will rise a bit unless they make an acquisition which would lower their margin)
9) Guidance is based on 21k buses we have now, not including any from projected 30k network by end of 2010.
10) No board determination regarding uplisting to Nasdaq yet.
11) Q1 2010 will probably be a little weaker than Q4 2010 due to seasonality. Q3 and Q4 tend to be the strongest.

Hard not to become overly optimistic with a CC like that... Certainly seems like that 71-75M guidance is leaving *plenty* of room on the upside even without any acquisitions.

-Fernando

[redman_2014]

SOKF Investor Conference

http://www.redchip.com/visibility/conferencePages/newyorkmar2010/conferenceMain.asp?page=webcast

[redman_2014]

2010 Projections for CCLWF warrants

I got bored so decided to do the 2010 projections aswell.

Share price: $8.90
Shares o/s: 10.16M
Warrant price: $1.60
Warrant strike price: $7.50
Warrants o/s: 15.55M(will raise $116.5M when converted)

The projections include the cash and use 25.7M o/s(includes the warrants) and are based on expected 2010 numbers:

2010E Net Income = $31.40M($1.22 eps using 25.7M o/s)
$8.90(share price) - $4.57(cash) = $4.33 adjusted share price.
$4.33/$1.22(Expected 2010 eps) = PE of 3.55

Projections(using 2010E eps of $1.22):

PE of 5 = $10.67(intrinsic value of warrants = $3.17)
PE of 6 = $11.89(intrinsic value of warrants = $4.39)
PE of 7 = $13.11(intrinsic value of warrants = $5.61)
PE of 8 = $14.33(intrinsic value of warrants = $6.83)


Warrant potential:

Share price of $11 = $3.50(119% upside)
Share price of $12 = $4.50(181% upside)
Share price of $13 = $5.50(244% upside)
Share price of $14.25 = $6.75(322% upside)


Notes:

In their investor presentation they mentioned that sales volume for Q4 2009 was +20.8% year over year from Q4 2008, and their preliminary results for Q1 2010 show a 36% increase compared to Q1 2009, so it looks as though they are accelerating growth going into 2010. Mr. Jia Dong Huang, Chairman of China Ceramics "Our outlook for 2010 remains positive and our backlog of orders for delivery in the first quarter stands at approximately $35.5 million, representing an underlying annual growth rate of 36% compared to the first quarter of last year."


Summary:

It only requires a forward PE of 8 to make it to the $14.25 redemption price for the warrants. The annual report next week and the Q1 report in a month or two will provide a great deal of clarity as to whether the $31.4M earnout target for 2010 is achievable.


-Adam

[redman_2014]

CCME 10-K:

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/DisplayFiling.aspx?dcn=0001144204-10-017463

[redman_2014]

CCME Q4 Earnings Release:

http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=29445728&topic=CCME&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=95523

[redman_2014]

CNYD: Q4 Earnings PR :

China Yida Reports Record Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2009 Results 03/23 07:30 AM



FUZHOU, China, March 23 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- China Yida Holding Company (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) ("China Yida" or the "Company"), a leading diversified entertainment and media enterprise in China, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2009.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20091012/CNM039LOGO )

Fourth Quarter 2009 Highlights
-- Total net revenue increased 58.1% to $14.5 million, compared to $9.2
million in the fourth quarter of 2008
-- Net revenue from the tourism business increased 112.5% year over year
to $6.0 million, with a gross margin of 60.2%
-- Net revenue from the media business increased 34.2% year over year to
$8.5 million, with a gross margin of 91.1%
-- Gross profit grew 61.7% to $11.4 million, compared to $7.0 million in
the same period last year
-- Operating income grew 97.9% to $9.6 million, compared to $4.9 million
in the fourth quarter of 2008
-- Net income increased 27.5% to $5.9 million, compared to $4.7 million in
the same period last year
-- Fully diluted EPS was $0.34 per share, compared to $0.27 in the fourth
quarter of 2008
-- Opened Shangping Tulou cluster, part of Hua'An Tulou's World Heritage
tourism destination
-- Listed its common stock on the NASDAQ Capital Market

Full Year 2009 Highlights
-- Total net revenue increased 67.4% to $51.2 million, compared to $30.6
million in 2008
-- Net revenue from the tourism business increased 170.7% year over year
to $20.0 million, with a gross margin of 79.5%
-- Net revenue from the media business increased 35.2% year over year to
$31.5 million, with a gross margin of 79.2%
-- Gross profit grew 77.4% to $40.6 million, compared to $22.9 million in
2008
-- Operating income grew 81.1% to $34.4 million, compared to $19.0 million
in 2008
-- Net income increased 39.4% to $25.5 million, compared to $18.3 million
in 2008
-- Fully diluted EPS was $1.47 per share, compared to $1.27 in 2008
-- Re-opened Hua'An Tulou Cluster including Shangping Tulou
-- Entered into a six-year exclusive agreement with China's Railway Media
Center to create "Journey through China on the Train" infomercial
programs

Dr. Chen Minhua, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) , stated, "We are very pleased to report another quarter of record results, and particularly delighted with the triple-digit year-over-year growth of our tourism business. The strong growth was the combined result of the increase in number of tourist destinations under management, marketing efforts nationwide as well as favorable macro-economic policies, which aim to promote Chinese domestic consumption to reduce reliance on exports. Our advertising business also experienced strong growth this quarter and delivered superior profitability because of higher demand for airtime at FETV. In addition we further expanded the coverage of our 'Journey through China on a Train' infomercial program to 36 rail lines and 738 trains as of the end of 2009. This program is an important part of our strategy to raise awareness about our tourism destinations all over the country."
Fourth Quarter 2009 results
Total net revenue increased by 58.1% to $14.5 million, compared with $9.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Tourism Business
Net revenue from the tourism business increased 112.5% to $6.0 million, compared with $2.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2008. Cost of revenue from the tourism business, mainly consisting of Chinese business tax at a rate of 5%, tickets profit sharing with local government, and depreciation of fixed assets at tourism destinations, was $2.4 million, up 1552.5% from $0.14 million in the same period of last year. Gross margin from the tourism business was 60.2% for the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to 94.9% a year ago. The year-over-year decrease was because tickets profit sharing and depreciation expenses of the fixed assets at tourism destinations were reclassified from Operating Expenses to Cost of Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2009. These changes were made to more accurately reflect the way in which the segment's results are reported. Certain reclassifications have been made to prior period amounts to conform to the current period presentation.
During the fourth quarter of 2009, the total number of visitors that entered the Great Golden Lake was around 163,000, an increase of 63%, compared with 100,000 in the same period of last year. Revenue from the Great Golden Lake totaled $4.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2009.
During the fourth quarter of 2009, Hua'An Tulou accepted 55,000 visitors, and contributed $1.03 million of revenues to the Company.
Media Business
Net revenue from the media business grew 34.2% to $8.5 million, compared with $6.4 million in the same period of last year. This increase was due to higher demand for airtime at FETV. By the end of 2009, FETV's audience rating was 0.58, compared to 0.56 at the end of 2008 and 0.12 at the end of 2003.
Cost of revenue from the media business, mainly including Chinese business tax at a rate of 8.5%, procurement cost for TV programs and depreciation of media equipment, was $0.8 million, down 64.6% from $2.2 million in the same period of last year. The decrease was mainly because of much lower TV program procurement cost in the fourth quarter of 2009. Gross margin for the media business was 91.1% for the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to 61.1% a year ago.
Gross profit for China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) 's consolidated operations was $11.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2009, representing a gross margin of 78.4%, compared to $7.0 million and 76.7 % for the comparable period of 2008.
Total operating expense decreased by 19.0% to $1.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with $2.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2008. Selling expenses and G&A expenses for the three months ended December 31, 2009 decreased 2.2% and 31.3% year over year to $0.9 million and $0.9 million respectively. The Company's selling activities and daily operations in the fourth quarter of 2009 were in line with its increased revenues. The year-over-year decrease was because tickets profit sharing and depreciation expenses of the fixed assets at tourism destinations were reclassified from Operating Expenses to Cost of Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2009. These changes were made to more accurately reflect the way in which the segment's results are reported. Certain reclassifications have been made to prior period amounts to conform to the current period presentation.
Operating income increased by 97.9% to $9.6 million, compared with $4.9 million a year ago. Operating margin for the fourth quarter of 2009 was 66.2%, compared with 52.9% for the fourth quarter of 2008.
Net income for the fourth quarter of 2009 was $5.9 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, an increase of 27.5%, compared with a net income of $4.7 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Full Year 2009 Results
Total net revenue increased by 67.4% to $51.2 million, compared with $30.6 million in 2008.
Net revenue from the media business increased by 35.2% to $31.5 million, driven by higher demand for airtime at FETV. Currently, FETV's airtime is sold mainly through 15 advertising agencies, which are long-term partners of China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) . The three largest distributors accounted for 20% of FETV's revenue in 2009.
Net revenue from the tourism business increased by 170.7% to $19.7 million, as compared to $7.3 million in 2008. The increase was primarily attributable to higher number of visitors to the Great Golden Lake, which increased from approximately 320,000 in 2008 to approximately 640,000 in 2009, as well as the revenue contributed by Hua'An Tulou, which was reopened in 2009. In 2009, Hua'An Tulou had 95,000 visitors, and contributed over $1.7 million to the Company's total revenue. The Company expects to attract 160,000 visitors in 2010 to this destination.
Gross profit for 2009 increased 77.4% year over year to $40.6 million, with gross margin of 79.3%. Operating income increased 81.1 % year over year to $34.4 million, mainly because of increasing costs of maintenance and promotion for the Great Golden Lake.
Provision for income taxes in 2009 was $8.9 million, representing an effective tax rate of 25.9%, compared to $0.7 million and 3.5% in 2008. The increase of effective tax rate was because the income tax exemption for our advertising operation, the FETV, expired by the end of 2008. The statutory income tax rate for the Company's different business lines was 25% in 2009.
Net income was $25.5 million, or $1.47 per fully diluted share, an increase of 39.4% compared with a net income of $18.3 million, or $1.27 per share, for 2008.
Financial Condition
As of December 31, 2009, the Company reported $5.8 million in cash and cash equivalents. Working capital was $1.6 million with a current ratio of 1.3. The Company also reported $2.5 million in bank loan, which is due in March 2012. As of December 31, 2009, the Company had $77.7 million in shareholders' equity compared to $52.1 million at the end of 2008.
On January 28, 2010, the Company closed a registered direct offering of 2,489,721 common shares at a purchase price of $11.50 per share for aggregate proceeds of approximately $28.6 million. After giving effect to the registered direct offering, the Company will have 19,551,785 shares of common stock outstanding.
China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) generated $30.0 million in cash flow from operating activities in 2009 and spent $36.1 million on capital expenditures, which were primarily used for the construction of entertainment facilities at Yunding Park and Hua'An Tulou cluster. The Company expects a residual scheduled payment of $10.0 million in 2010 related to the construction of Yunding Park. Management believes the current cash and operating cash flow will be sufficient to fund the company's ongoing projects and growth strategy.
2010 Outlook and Guidance
In 2010, management expects a moderate organic growth in advertising revenues from FETV. The Company will continue its marketing efforts to expand the coverage of 'Journey through China on a Train' infomercial program all over China. During the first half of 2010 management expect this program to reach 44 rail lines.
On November 25, 2009, China'sState Council approved Guidelines to Accelerate the Development of the Tourism Industry in China, defining it as a strategic pillar of the national economy, which will create a more favorable industry environment for China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) .
The Company will also benefit from rapidly growing consumer spending on leisure activities in China as a result of increased disposable income and a growing middle class. With GDP per capita in China currently at US$3,000 growth in tourism is expected to accelerate.
Management believes the Company's tourism business will achieve strong growth in 2010 both at existing and newly opened tourist attractions. The expressway connecting Wuyi Mountain and the Great Golden Lake is expected to be completed and put into use by September 2010, which management believes will bring more tourists to the Great Golden Lake destination. The construction of Yunding Park was affected by too many unexpected rainy days and the management now expects to open it to visitors in the third quarter of 2010.
"Our successful business model, proven management capability and access to capital continue to bring many new opportunities from different provinces in China. We are now carefully evaluating these new projects in order to provide shareholders with the most ideal investment opportunities and hope to be in a position to make an announcement in the near future," Dr. Chen Minhua added.
Conference Call
China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) will hold a conference call at 09:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, March 23, 2010 to discuss its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2009 results. To participate in the live conference call, please dial the following number five to ten minutes prior to the scheduled conference call time: 866-672-3985. International callers may dial 706-902-4207. The conference ID for this call is 63519136. If you are unable to participate in the call at this time, a replay will be available for two weeks starting on Tuesday, March 23, 2010 at 12:00 p.m. EDT. To access the replay, dial 800-642-1687, international callers may dial 706-645-9291. The Conference Replay pass-code is 63519136.
About China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%)
China Yida Holding Co. (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) is a leading diversified entertainment enterprise focused on China's fast-growing media and tourism industries and headquartered in Fuzhou City, Fujian province of China. The Company's media business provides operations management services; including channel, column and advertisement management for television station, presently the Fujian Education Television Station ("FETV", a top-rated provincial education television station), and "Journey through China on the Train" ("CRTV", the only railway on-board media authorized by Ministry of Railways). Additionally, the Company provides tourism management services, and specializes in the investment and development of natural, cultural and historic scenic sites. China Yida (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) currently operates the Great Golden Lake tourist destination (Global Geopark, including Golden Lake, Shangqing River, Zhuanyuan Rock, Luohan Mountain and Taining Old Town.), Hua'An Tulou tourist destination (World Culture Heritage, including Dadi Tulou cluster and the Shangping Tulou cluster), and China Yunding tourist destination (National Park, including Colorful Rock Valley, Yunding Paradise, Yunding Waterfall, South Heavenly Mountain, and Seven Star Lake). The Company's operating scenic sites are over 300 square kilometers in the area. For further information, please contact the Company directly, or visit its Web site at http://www.yidacn.net .
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may be identified by the use of words such as "anticipate, "believe," "expect," "future," "may," "will," "would," "should," "plan," "projected," "intend," and similar expressions. Such forward-looking statements, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of China Yida Holding Co., Inc. (the "Company") to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. The Company's future operating results are dependent upon many factors, including but not limited to: (i) the Company's ability to obtain sufficient capital or a strategic business arrangement; (ii) the Company's ability to build and maintain the management and human resources and infrastructure necessary to support the anticipated growth of its business; (iii) competitive factors and developments beyond the Company's control; and (iv) other risk factors discussed in the Company's periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available for review at www.sec.gov.

For more information, please contact:

China Yida Holding Company (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%) George Wung CFO
Phone: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

CCG Investor Relations
Crocker Coulson, President
Phone: [phone]
Ed Job, CFA
Phone: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

SOURCE China Yida Holding Company (CNYD:$14.00,00$0.95,007.28%)

-Fernando

[redman_2014]

LPIH Longwei Petroleum Announces Revised Fiscal 2010 and 2011 Guidance

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/longwei-petroleum-announces-revised-fiscal-2010-and-2011-guidance-89916002.html

[redman_2014]

CCME/CNYD - Comparative Valuation.

Here is a valuation comparison between CCME and CNYD. They are both in a similar industry, have high margins, are growing earnings at 50%+, and are both very undiscovered. I believe once they are noticed they will garner a similar valuation of 15-20, probably no later than the end of 2010.


1)CCME: 39.5M O/S. Current Market Cap: $460M

2009E Net Income - $42M
2010E Net Income - $83.6M

2009 P/E - 10.95
2010 P/E - 6.51 (including 7M incentive shares)


2)CNYD: 20.4M O/S. Current Market Cap: $227M

2009E Net Income - $27M (my estimate)
2009E Net Income - $42M (my estimate)

2009 P/E - 8.4
2010 P/E - 5.04


Potential gain using 2010 numbers and 15-20 P/E:

1) CCME $1.80 eps*: $27 to $36
Potential gain: 131% to 208%
*Includes 7M incentive shares
Future Market Cap: $1.26B to $1.67B

2) CNYD $2.20 eps: $33 to $44
Potential gain: 196% to 295%
Future Market Cap: $673M to $898M


Notes:

1) CNYD's projections are based on my personal calculations, but I consider them to be of a conservative nature. I believe revenue from Yunding Park in 2010 will be much higher than what I used. The summary below explains my reasoning for reaching $42M Net Income for 2010.

2) CCME's projections include the 7M incentive shares because that dilution will occur if the $83.6M is hit, even though the extra shares will not show up until 2011. Actual results will look better at year-end then what I have used, but investors will most likely have priced in the dilution so I included it here.


CNYD Summary:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46161683

CCME Summary:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46374933


-Adam

[redman_2014]

CNYD: Listened to the Q4 2009 CC:

1)Toulou going to around 160k+ visitors in 2010 (Add another 3.5M revenue to 2009 numbers since we did 50k in 2009 and 1.7M ish rev)....
2) Yunding 50M RMB 2010 expectation ($7.3M revenue)
3) Train segment did 1.6M revenue in 2009 and they expect 3.5x to 5x in 2010. So assume 4x or an additional 4.5M revenue in 2010.

3.5 + 7.3 + 4.5 = 15.3M revenue added from that alone in 2010.

Total 2009 revenue was 51.2M. The above brings us to 66.5M or 30% revenue growth.

This is not including ANY growth from the FE-TV segment (31.5M in 2009, will grow at least 10% or 3.15M more revenue)...Or ANY growth from the Golden Lake (18.5M revenue in 2009, should grow at LEAST 35% in 2010 or 6.5M)

If you tack that expected growth on as well, that means another 9.65M revenue more or 76.15M revenue expected for 2010.

76.15M would mean = 49% revenue growth... And this is with a conservative 10% growth for FE-TV and 35% for Golden-Lake.

Shrug. This means big EPS growth, which is why I am holding my shares.

Note: This does not include any possible acquisitions from the latest financing deal.

Anyone disagree with anything?

-Fernando

[redman_2014]

CCLTF/CCLWF - $3.46 EPS 2009 ($26.2M Net Income)

Net revenue was (US$ 128.7 million), an increase of 13.3% from 2008.

Gross profit was (US$ 43.5 million), an increase of 22.3% from 2008.

Gross profit margin was 33.8%, compared to 31.3% in 2008. Gross margin was 36% in Q4/2009.

Non-GAAP profit before tax excluding the merger costs incurred in Success Winner Limited's reverse recapitalization was RMB 238.6 million (US$ 34.9 million), up 26.2% from RMB 189.1 million in 2008;

Non-GAAP net profit excluding the merger costs incurred in Success Winner Limited's reverse recapitalization was RMB 179.3 million (US$ 26.2 million), up 8.6% from RMB 165.0 million in 2008

Earnings per fully diluted share were RMB 23.65 (US$ 3.46) compared to RMB 28.73 (US$ 4.13) in 2008.

Tiles: 'the average selling price per square meter increased by 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the same period in 2008.'

Cash and bank balances(as of Dec 31st/2009)were RMB 150.1 million (US$ 22.0 million), compared with RMB 162.3 million (US$ 23.7 million) as of September 30, 2009. The decrease in cash and bank balances was a compound result of RMB 81.4 million (US$ 11.9 million) of cash provided by the reverse recapitalization transaction with China Holdings Acquisition Corp., offset by the partial payment of RMB 145 million (US$ 21.2 million) in the fourth quarter of 2009 for the acquisition of the Gaoan plant.

Bank borrowings have gone down from RMB 34.5 million (US$ 5.0 million) as of September 30, 2009 to RMB 26.5 million (US$ 3.9 million) as of December 31, 2009 due to repayments in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Business Outlook: China Ceramics' nine production lines at the Jinjiang facility and three production lines at the Gaoan facility are all running at full capacity.The current annual production capacity at the Jinjiang facility is 28 million square meters and 10 million square meters at the Gaoan facility. The annual production capacity at the Gaoan facility is expected to reach 42 million square meters by the end of 2011. Mr. Huang added, "Our immediate focus for 2010 is increasing our production capacity to meet growing market demand for our products. We also expect to continue to benefit from the central government's RMB4 trillion stimulus plan and China's continued urbanization." The Company's backlog of orders for delivery in the first quarter was at approximately RMB 242.2 million (US$ 35.5 million), representing a year-over-year revenue growth rate of 35.9% compared to the first quarter of 2009. The expected sales volume is 9.1 million square meters, which would represent a 30.1% year-over-year growth in sales volume from 7.0 million square meters sold in the comparable period of 2009.

"We are pleased to report another strong quarter that exceeds our revenue and net income guidance for the full year," said Mr. Jiadong Huang, Chief Executive Officer of China Ceramics. "Our rapid growth was driven by our ability to increase our production volume to meet continued robust market demand. The majority of our revenues come from the domestic market in China, which we believe will continue to exhibit growth in the quarters ahead."


http://xsltm1.finance.vip.sp2.yahoo.com/news/China-Ceramics-Reports-prnews-3608578805.html?x=0

-Adam

[redman_2014]

Updated projections for CCLWF using actual 2009 numbers

Share price: $9.00
Shares o/s: 8.9M
Warrant price: $1.46
Warrant strike price: $7.50
Warrants o/s: 15.55M(will raise $116.5M when converted)

The projections include the cash and use 25.7M o/s(includes the warrants) and are based on announced 2009 numbers:

2009 Net Income = $26.20M($1.02 eps using 25.7M o/s)
$9.00(share price) - $4.57(cash) = $4.43 adjusted share price.
$4.43/$1.02(Expected 2010 eps) = PE of 4.34

Projections(using 2009 eps of $1.02):

PE of 5 = $9.67(intrinsic value of warrants = $2.17)
PE of 6 = $10.69(intrinsic value of warrants = $3.19)
PE of 7 = $11.71(intrinsic value of warrants = $4.21)
PE of 8 = $12.73(intrinsic value of warrants = $5.23)
PE of 9.5 = $14.25(intrinsic value of warrants = $6.75)

Warrant potential:

Share price of $11 = $3.50(140% upside)
Share price of $12 = $4.50(208% upside)
Share price of $13 = $5.50(277% upside)
Share price of $14.25 = $6.75(362% upside)


Summary:
Using the cash method for the warrants it only requires a trailing PE of 9.5(which brings the o/s to 25.7M) to make it to the $14.25 redemption price for the warrants. It currently has a PE of 4.34 on a trailing 2009 basis.


-Adam

[redman_2014]

EDS - Took a look a couple months back.

With the industry EDS is in the strength of the brand would determine if they were successful and with so many world-class competitors it's a tough go. And I have difficulty quantifying the brand's staying power if I don't have direct contact with it and therefore I avoided this one for that reason. If they had a decade or two of strong financial results based on their brand names I could overlook it since that would show they could adapt with the industry and still remain on top, but without that I usually stay away.


-Adam

[tilong22]

Exceed - EDS

Guys, do you have any thoughts on this name. This was a SPAC at the same time as CCME, but did not see much discussion on this. The following are the positives:

A large fund support (like Starr), New Horizon who purchased their shares in mid 7s.
Management with integrity
Competitors trading at lot higher multiple (ANTA @ 22x, Meike and Flyke between 10x and 15x with recent IPO).
EDS trading lot less than these three names
Warrants trading well without lot of news.
Earnings due mid April per management
Management comfortable with earnout targets (>$38MM for 2009)
Most data services still show the SPAC (2020) info

Negatives

Company withholding news possibly a deliberate action to retire warrants.
Not much discount on warrants at current quote.
Stiff competition from international players like Nike, adidas etc and also local players like Li Ning, Anta, etc.

Hoping it will reach $15 easily once earnings is released and digested by investment community.


Thoughts

[redman_2014]

APBS - Have not started a position yet.

I'm also curious about the cash flow. They make 10M, don't mention any capex, and only have 3M from operating...something doesn't jive. Where is the money going?

If it get's below $4 again I will consider starting, but need some answers before adding significantly.


-Adam