Redman's

[redman_2014]

Updated projections for CCLWF using actual 2009 numbers

Share price: $9.00
Shares o/s: 8.9M
Warrant price: $1.46
Warrant strike price: $7.50
Warrants o/s: 15.55M(will raise $116.5M when converted)

The projections include the cash and use 25.7M o/s(includes the warrants) and are based on announced 2009 numbers:

2009 Net Income = $26.20M($1.02 eps using 25.7M o/s)
$9.00(share price) - $4.57(cash) = $4.43 adjusted share price.
$4.43/$1.02(Expected 2010 eps) = PE of 4.34

Projections(using 2009 eps of $1.02):

PE of 5 = $9.67(intrinsic value of warrants = $2.17)
PE of 6 = $10.69(intrinsic value of warrants = $3.19)
PE of 7 = $11.71(intrinsic value of warrants = $4.21)
PE of 8 = $12.73(intrinsic value of warrants = $5.23)
PE of 9.5 = $14.25(intrinsic value of warrants = $6.75)

Warrant potential:

Share price of $11 = $3.50(140% upside)
Share price of $12 = $4.50(208% upside)
Share price of $13 = $5.50(277% upside)
Share price of $14.25 = $6.75(362% upside)


Summary:
Using the cash method for the warrants it only requires a trailing PE of 9.5(which brings the o/s to 25.7M) to make it to the $14.25 redemption price for the warrants. It currently has a PE of 4.34 on a trailing 2009 basis.


-Adam