Oil Stocks

[grajekk]

ZLUS!!! New kid on the block!

[plashadpobedy]

Don't buy penny-stocks in any sector. Waste of time and money. 99% are scams.

I have some FEB08 calls on Petro-Canada (PCZ) & Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ).

[oilin07]

I thought you guys might be interested in checking out this oil and gas stock. The symbol is ENDE. The company is days away from announcing a major increase in production. They have just finished drilling their first horizontal well and sources on the ground believe the production increase is very substantial. Management expected between a 500% and 1200% increase in daily production! We are waiting for the news any day now! The company website is www.endevcoinc.com.

take care and happy new year

[bbqporkwings]

Hey Guys, have you heard anything about IOC? I get a newsletter that was talking about a big investment.


by Ian L. Cooper
August 16, 2007

I learned long ago not to bet against T. Boone Pickens. He's not one to throw around investment dollars at just any company. A man of his stature is sure to have done plenty of research, and to be well in the know before investing a nickel in any company.

So it was no surprise that shares of Interoil (IOC) recently spiked on news that T. Boone Pickens increased his stake in the beaten down company to 9.9%.

Considering his latest investing history, I wouldn't recommend betting against him.

He's recently taken a position in Encana Corporation (ECA), Halliburton (HAL), and Talisman Energy (TLM). Let's assume he took those positions on March 31, 2007, for example. He would've bought ECA at $45 and watched it soar to $61.66. He would've bought HAL at about $28 and watched it go to $42. And he would've bought Talisman Energy at $15 only to watch it rocket to $21.50.
Hot Oil Stocks: Betting on T. Boone Pickens Bullish Bet

In early July 2007, it took four days for shareholders to send Interoil Corporation (IOC) to pre-Elk1 discovery at Papua New Guinea levels -- a 58% plunge on nothing more than rumors of a dry well that cast doubt on the Elk structure. But the drop was mere "overreaction," given that the company has not yet completed work on the well.

As an Australian company, Interoil is required, on a weekly basis, to produce drilling results. When IOC failed to report test volumes, it was viewed as a negative. Shareholders got nervous, and here we are today with the buying opportunity of a lifetime. It was nothing more than overreaction. If this were the U.S., these results would have never been made public, and IOC wouldn't have reacted the way it did.


Hot Oil Stocks: The Buying Opportunity of a Lifetimes

But it did react, violently to the downside. Nowadays, even at $33.15, a $14 recovery off of $19 lows, it remains quite a bargain – something made very clear by T. Boone Pickens last week after buying 943,964 shares of the beaten company. That now brings his stake to 9.9%. If you want to bet against the bullish possibilities here, that's up to you.

While it isn't known why T. Boone Pickens made his latest move, we do know that IOC is developing that natural gas project in Papua New Guinea. Merrill Lynch Commodities, Pacific LNG Operations Ltd, and Interoil have agreed to develop a liquefied natural gas project in New Guinea, with hopes that it will begin production by 2012.

Hot Oil Stocks: Refillable Bearish Gap

Near-term, shares of IOC could re-fill the bearish gap at about $40. While you ponder on taking an IOC position, take this into consideration. For Pickens to have increased his stake to 9.9% is astonishing.

Someone of his stature isn't likely to do that without good research and information. With that in mind, we're bullish especially after Monday's news of positive results from that Elk-2 well in New Guinea.

This confirms our bullish outlook. Again, we're looking for IOC to refill its bearish gap at $40 near-term, and for new all-time highs shortly thereafter. Buy Interoil Corporation (IOC) at or below $39 and hold long-term.

[NYBob]

Oilsands Quest BQI invest for the future -
BQI Oil safety for the future -

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http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7795287454054769328

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7203734125996981491

BQI Black Gold -


You got to be in to win !

Imo Tia.
God Bless America

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http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22030861

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6668

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=bqi,PLPAWANRBO[P][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G

[SteveNix]

S-2, would you consider including MRO in your charts?

[plashadpobedy]

Bearish article on refining stocks (7/13/07):

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070712/oil_prices.html?.v=23

[plashadpobedy]

Too early for the big dump on August...

I expect the bottom of the BB to come the first week of July as volume dwindles and a reversal will drive up the stock again.
Hopefully, can cover my positions the time excursion to the bottom of the BB.

I am too early on my short positions here. There's not enough concern by longs that gas will fall till August or September, so no one's selling off, or buying either for that matter. Below is a paste from the yahoo board (TSO):

"Movin, If I was naked short, you may be right about being early. However, I am long with other energy names against it and as my chart demonstrated, which I provided yesterday, I have made money even with TSO moving higher. My thesis is that TSO, and the refiners, will begin to underperform other types of energy stocks since and I have been short gasoline crack and long nat. gas and oil through my portfolio construction. I am took some oil exposure out of play today since oil may spike up to $72 wtic on geopolitical concerns, but the world is currently awash oil inventory and China's imports appear to be well below consensus estimates. I am also long two technology stocks that have a give me growing exposure in software modules and testing, and nex-gen substrate for the solar industry which could be a big winner over the next several years. I know quite a bit about solar and have even visited some manufacturing plants to check out some of the new technology. I also think when the refiners do tank, it will be so fast and vicious that I don't want to be a chaser. Hope you get your optimal short off timing the hurricane season. fwiw, I did not oversleep today. I was unfortunately up at 5 am today. I don't run to the Yahoo Board first thing like you."

[plashadpobedy]

The clock ran down on oil today....
We are at the 20 DMAs or a tad lower. They had to fall. Big money wasn't buying in and longs wouldn't buy anymore stock. We were at parity. For now, looks like an excursion to the 50DMA and quick.

I really don't think that at the 50DMA that big money will be ready to jump in here?

Like you've said S-2, the market's there to steal your money. It doesn't care about crack spreads, inventory numbers, weather, etc. It's just there to take your money.

Longs on the yahoo board were not watching the volume and they got nailed today on a "sell-the-news". More down today..

[plashadpobedy]

The name-of-the-game......
is not gas or oil, it's money.

My two-cents given the bearish TA:

Nice correction on MRO (Marathon Oil) today.

The big money doesn't care about the price of gas, they care about making money in the market. The big money knows these stocks are not going up, because they are not buying in. Nobody makes any money if these stocks don't move one way or another.
They may short (sell) a bunch of shares, and these stocks price will plummet. They can buy them back at support. Right now, the VLO & TSO are stalled because longs are too hopeful of these stocks going up (but they ain't got the balls to buy more stocks at these levels). Nobody makes any money if these stocks don't move one way or another.

I think big money may be shorting these flying pigs to drop them. They make money both ways.

[plashadpobedy]

S-2 per alternate fuels...
I think you're right that the present market doesn't consider the push for alternate fuels anymore than an elitist approach to gas supply. The cost of producing those fuels may be a bunch more than the cost of crude. I heard that the big agro-monied interests were pushing it, certainly not the small farmers. I rather burn some 100 million year old dinosaur, than tomorrow's breakfast.

I think that right now, oil demand in China and India are pushing the domestic prices, but that's a guess, I have no facts to back that up.

The way the volumes are running here, it looks as if the 20 DMA's are no problem (for OXY that would be about $57/sh, VLO about $75/sh, and TSO about $61/sh). I think they will fall again to the 50 DMA? I'd settle for that. Whether they would blow through support at the 50 DMAs is anyone's guess?

I sure hope you are right as to the 20 DMA being the break-point? I guess a lot of trader's bugout may pivot on a breach of the 20 DMA? I sure hope it's the catalyst.

The very high VLO JULY07 $80 PUT (ZPYSP) volume yesterday was very encouraging.

[SyndicateTwo]

Plash, I think there's more to this high oil price story as I suggested. But the big reason really could be the fight between congress's new approach to alternative fuels and all but telling the oil companies to piss off. The markets are responding with an 'f' you right back.

But something is gonna give. The bigger issue here is the world economy and world inflation. There's no sign of these economies weakening. If anything, they're strengthening. That spells doom for rates because the Fed can't lower rates now. We might be in a weird situation where the US gets hit by a reccession that can't really be helped by the Fed because to do so would create a larger liquidity problem that would do far more damage than they'd want.

In other words, the next 5 years or so are going to be very interesting and possibly very ugly. Soon, the market's will reflect that.

Oil is at the top of its range and most likely will retrace here bringing OXY, VLO, and TSO down with it. And, it could happen very quickly.

Look specifically at OXY's chart. Look at the MACD histogram's high on the current new price high compared to the previous two. That is one hell of a negative divergant.

VLO's also is worse. I think the key here is going to be the 20 day MA's breaking.

[plashadpobedy]

S-2, my take on what's going on......
I am heavily whipsawed on my short positions for now. I know you are correct as to these stocks topping, it's "when" is the big question? I am holding short for July expiration. If TSO corrects to support ($58/sh) in the ST, I will have to cover and lock in any gains.

Per TSO, there are no buyers above resistance for this stock. The smart money's already left in the last month. I think that's why the volume has progressively dropped. I think what is left is hopeful longs waiting for a breakout, which may never come? The big money isn't buying here, it's got to be the little guys thinking there will be no correction till August. My best guess, Somebody was banging the openings for the last week, and it ceased at resistance. This stock projects to $66/sh in a bearish up-channel, but I don't think it's going to make it?

Per VLO, there was very, very high put buying on Tuesday. 1486 contracts on the JULY07 $80 PUTS (ZPYSP). Up $ .50. My TSO JULY07 $65 PUTS still down (50%)(TSOSM).

I think it's retail that's holding these flying pigs up? Everyone expects gas rise more at the pump and to be high for another two months, so they are not selling off. The big money's already taken their profits. I think what is left, is-bait-the-last-longs to enter at the top?

OXY...
I never expected crude to rise that much. There's always plenty of crude around. OXY has usually filled 100% of any gap up before going higher. Didn't happen this time. I had to cover on Friday for a $3500 loss.

PLASH

[SyndicateTwo]

I think it's clear that TSO is topping out here. VLO is making a clear 5th wave and OXY I think I labeled wrong. It's making a 3rd wave high, not 5th.

But I do believe you're seeing the highs put in for these stocks around here. Oil today at $69 I think has some manipulation and dare I say, conspiracy involved. There's much more going on here than meets the eye. It's not simple ma

[plashadpobedy]

Per TSO.....
I agree, S-2. yesterday wiped out all my recent gains (nearly $15K),but it is only a matter of time, and I don't think it will be another 4 weeks? Today is Friday, and I expect the same action today, a push to resistance of $62/sh perhaps, a little above, on falling volume? After that, it could be post-time? The smart money's leaving and it's only complacent longs holding this thing up. When it breaches it's 50 DMA, it's toast. LT longs will realize they have become "bagholders" for the big money. I am holding (-20) naked $55 calls, a (20) net credit spread, and about 40 JULY07 $65 puts (all for July07). I got (15) JULY07 puts on VLO too.

OXY Spread..not enough time left......
I will lose on the (10) contract OXY Jun07 bear put spread (sold at $ .95 and bought at $ .25). It's all intrinsic value now. I will lose about $2500 unless OXY takes a fantastic drop on today's session. I never expected this whipsaw on OXY. I can't understand why it went up with adequate crude supplies? Maybe just the time of year and sentiment as to oil supplies?

[SyndicateTwo]

Look closely at those charts - they got H&S written all over them.

I think OXY has the most to fall. OXY is in clear capitulation mode - or blowoff I should say. Great end to a 5th wave.

The proper way to play it is to wait for the trend to break. Not yet.


TSO is making a 'kiss of death' play here. It broke below the uptrend and is now retesting the underside of that. It's a bit above, so I wouldn't want to short it just yet. But if if closes back under that uptrend, then you want to go short.

[plashadpobedy]

Short squeezes.....
It just looks like they are popping the openings on TSO? Doesn't look to be a rush of new buyers to own this stock (and VLO). Right now, there is complacency by the longs to sell-off as they expect these stocks to head higher per the limited refinery capacity and high-use season.

The big boys may surprise them yet? Trading is narrow and the option volume rather low?

Any further comments always appreciated.

[plashadpobedy]

TSO.....
Looking at real-time on the openings, last two days, someone is banging TSO on the openings (today), and yesterday as it fell from the open to low volume at 10:30am. It got banged on the open this morning and halted at $61/sh. Trading very narrowly. It looks as if those who can, are squeezing the shorts, and then selling off?

The volume doesn't shout at me that there's a flood of new buyers to buy this stock. Longs are complacent to hold for $75/sh.

I am hoping for a fall to the neckline at $55/sh and covering. Maybe rolling out to the Aug options?

OXY....
has run away from me. Those $55 calls up to $4.00 of intrinsic value now. The $60 calls are on worth next to nothing as no one expects it to go to over $60 by tomorrow. I will lose big on this net credit spread unless there's a correction on Friday (tomorrow).

I was up about $15K on TSO, but this latest squeeze has really hurt. Still got 4 weeks. I am hoping for an excursion on TSO to $55/sh and then a bounce. It's just that right now, longs are too complacent to sell off.

PLASH

[SyndicateTwo]

You are absolutely correct. This is the definition of distribution. Look at OXY's RSI reading on the higher high. It's way lower than the previous two tops.

[plashadpobedy]

It isn't a matter of "if" these stocks will fall, it's "when"?

All the TA I can find, says these stocks are under "distribution". There could be a slight pop on any new "news" (as opposed to regurgitated "old news"), but the time of reckoning is coming. All the "earnings" for these stocks has already been priced in. The volumes are progressively falling. If this is a correction to a "measured gap", I am a horse's ass.

I looked at a real-time chart on Interactive Brokers yesterday after the "phenomenal pop" of $2/sh about noon.
The volume on the open was low and falling. At 10:30am the volume spiked like crazy, went up to a high and started falling again. It held high the rest of the day. Somebody put the pedal to the metal at low volume and started buying.

This refinery stocks are under distribution, not correction.
It's just a matter of time. We are at a major support area of the 50 DMA. The big boys will milk it here as long as there are suckers believing this is just a correction to go higher.

I think by the 4th of July we will see or be close to the 38.2% fib?

PLASH

[SyndicateTwo]

All three of these stocks are making Head and Shoulders patterns...Look at them closely...

[SyndicateTwo]

This ain't good....These types of stories come and go, but this one seems to have some credibility.....


http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece

[plashadpobedy]

Bearish post from yahoo board....
"These refining shorts are going to work out just fine. Even with a very poor showing in refinery utilization, the gasoline imports poured into U.S. ports as I projected. Wait until refinery utilization begins to work its way back up to 92%. I said it two weeks ago and I am sticking to this forecast, by Labor Day, U.S. gasoline inventories will reach the 5-year average. I also am predicting that regular gasoline pump prices will fall below $2.65/gal. national average before the end of the year. I also am pointing out that heating oil crack spreads will have a severe pullback. Just wait until TSO's RSI trades consistently below 50 in the third and fourth quarters. The MACD is flashing sell and I suspect there will be a very nasty bull trap sometime this summer.

I have decided not to waste much time posting on these boards since it is distracting and of no value to me. Best of luck and success."

[plashadpobedy]

Major support area for refinery stocks....

S-2, after thinking about it, I jumped in too early on my VLO put buy. It came to me a few minutes later that, this level is a "major area of support". I should have waited till next week to buy in again. I expect VLO/TSO to kind of doji-out near this ST area of support before breaking support, as the last longs bug-out before these stocks head south. Put volumes are up as die-hard longs hedge their bets.

I am down alittle on those last (10) contracts on VLO (ZPYSP), but I don't think for long?

I am thinking by mid-July, we will be at the 38.2% fib line? Any projections as to meeting that level in that period of time, about 5 weeks. If these stocks are going to tank, they will have done it by mid-July?

plash

[plashadpobedy]

S-2...Thanks for the explanation on the charts.

Both VLO & TSO's RSIs are heading below 50. That's the kiss-of-death on these stocks (historically). I figure they will hammer out on or near their 50 DMAs or resting on the bottom part of their BBs today. I look for any significant bounce till they hit the 38.2% fib line, but what do I know?

I bought (10) VLO JUL07 $80 PUTS @ $8.155 (ZPYSP) just now.
Up nicely on the TSO JULY07 $65 PUTS, and net credit spread.
I may come out okay on the OXY net credit spread next week.

PLASH

[SyndicateTwo]

The reason I drew it from where I did not from Jan was because as you top out, the lows start to get lower and then new uptrend lines start to move more to the right. So, yes, TSO broke the first uptrend line. Now it's trying to hold a new one. It should break that and then it will turn south strong.

Regarding your email about your short on MMM, or not shorting it because of me, you have to remember that the DOW just have easily could have ran to 14,000 before turning and not turning here. The DOW has defied all potential pullbacks. NOT shorting it was the right move. If you get caught up on that trade, then you're sure to lose money in the long run because you can't pick tops like that consistently. 'Shoulda coulda woulda's' don't make you money.

[plashadpobedy]

S-2 thanks for the chart on TSO..
I have always draw the "lower trend line" from the "beginning" of the LT trend (which in this case, starts in mid-January. That would make it breaking it's support line this week slightly, but it's close enough.

What I find significant about TSO (looking back 1.3 years, is that when it drops below the RSI 50, it really heads south. You don't have an RSI indicator on TSO here, but one on VLO. It is set to "2", which makes it hard to see the long-term effect. The default on stockcharts.com is set to "14", and one can clearly see that when the RSI on these stocks drops below 50, they are "toast".

I might do an net credit spread on VLO, not decided yet.

What I tried to point out to posters on the yahoo board is that there are no buyers for this stock above resistance, about $62.50/sh. I don't care about their "crack spreads", the charts say down?

[SyndicateTwo]

Hey Plash, here's TSO -->

I'll put it up on the main page, too.
Not looking so good. I think low $50s

[plashadpobedy]

Cramer...
I thought I read on the yahoo message someone saying that Cramer put a "sell" on TSO? Correct me if I am wrong. If he is pumping TSO, he must be short on it? I am sure Goldman Sachs have shorted their own positions, only to buy them back on the cheap. Make money both ways. Ain't capitalism great?

I don't bother to follow Cramer that closely. His timing is out of the park. There is none to be exact.

I will be looking at MRO, TSO, and WNR shorts later here. TSO is the first one that is obviously beening distributed.

PLASH
Subic Bay

[plashadpobedy]

"Hammer out" today. The OBV is in the basement. Chaikin osc. also indicating a tank is imminent. Some nervous longs are buying out-of-the-money JUNE/JULY07 PUTs as insurance against it tanking, volume is really up in those puts.

Looking very nice. Dont' know if OXY will correct enough by the end of next week to not have a slight loss here? It normally fills 100% before going higher, this time it didn't.

Looks like an island gap?

[plashadpobedy]

Bought TSO PUTS today.....
Looks like no one is buying in on Citigroup's rather non-news announcement on gas and oil prices. Just a bunch of regurgitated projections. Prices up only slightly, except for OXY. Can't understand that? There's plenty of US crude around.

I bought in (30)JULY07 $65 PUTS (TSOSM) this morning.

Sold all my copper calls on (FCX & PCU).

Going to be interesting.........

[plashadpobedy]

Bearish opinion off TSO yahoo board...

"You kids are having too much fun!! (Not rated) 2-Jun-07 01:21 pm It's fun watching you kids play with each other on this board. Watching the ebbs and flows from truly educational to complete childishness.....I wonder if you people are really adults sometimes.

You pumpers have all the fun you can while it lasts, cuz it won't. Just remember ole Mr. Useful, albeit a gluttin for punishment, throws out some mighty compelling positions as does Mr. Fax (every once in a while) and Mr. Movin_on tries at times. Who's that Oncy dude.....wew...get a clue man. What happened to Mr. Key tikii takii? I want the 3 stoges investment company back!!! And who is that bonehead pumping a pps of $80.....crack smoking monkey.

Anyway, my money is on Mr. Useful having an opportunity real soon to take a bushel of corn cobs and have his way with a few of you knuckleheads while your ankle grabbin. So be prepared, even if it's after Labor Day when the real fun begins.

Anyway, Mr. Fax, remember, I owe you a cyber hand shake if the stock hits $65 ($130) during hours only no AH stuff. The stock split has done well for your plight but the fundementals are still screaming "here come the bears".....historically high pe's both ttm and forward, analysts predicting negative growth for next year (like it or not), daily volumes absolutely on the downside (yikes) tell tale of - the little guys are the only ones buying now, falling gasoline prices, yadda, yadda, yadda. But I will give your guess the credit it is due IF and when it happens.

Gasoline inventories are still outside (below) their 5 year average range. Once the numbers get inside the range, the foward value of the stock is no longer positive. The inventory curve is on a steep incline towards the middle of that 5 year range real soon. This stock is liken the AMZN of the petro chemical sector, way gone from fundemental trading.

When people come to there senses (big boyz already are) there will be a nice pullback. Then another pump up around 4th of July - the start of the real driving season.

I'll cover both sides of the trade.

Carry on people.....it's entertaining. It's the bottom of the nineth, 2 outs and Useful is up 5 to 4, he's throwing some convincing heat. Let's see whatcha got there Fax, Movin_on and whoever else with an upside position."

[plashadpobedy]

I can't do a "Collar" play because I don't own the stock (TSO), never did. I just had long calls, which I sold.

Put Back Spread.....
If I were to do a spread, it would have to be a "Put Back Spread" (buy in more puts at a lower strike price and selling a lesser number of puts at higher strike price).

In anycase, I am looking at "August" puts rather than July, as I would expect that once TSO corrects (unless it's one of those stocks that never goes down, it will take 1-2 months to bottom out.

I will either do the Put back spread or just long the August puts (with in-the-money puts, TSOTM). Will look at it some more today.

Plash

[SyndicateTwo]

Why don't you just do a collar on TSO? You have the stock long? Just short the Aug calls and buy long the Aug puts at the same strike.

Basically, you're then playing both sides. It's the same as if you are long stock and short the stock at the same time.

If TSO falls, you profit on the options. Then, when it turns back up, you bail on those and stay long the stock doubling your profit potential. That's why I was advocating with MRVL all year.

If you do it right, you never really have to worry about anything because you can't really lose in the end.

[plashadpobedy]

OXY June short marginal..TSO to correct....

S-2,

OXY..
The OXY net credit spread looks okay. I just did it too early. I sold (10) at $ .90 and bought (10) at $ .25. That gives a profit of about $650 if this pans out. Later, I could have shorted them at $1.50. The way it goes, I guess?

TS0….why I think it’s good short (or at least better looking than VLO or MRO)…

I bugged out of my TSO long calls (60 pre-split) and (15) VLO calls on Wednesday afternoon, fearing the EIA report due out on Thursday. I made about $6K for the month. Damn, if just past 2pm on Wednesday (at the lowest volume point), those stocks jammed up in the last two hours. With 60 contracts, I could have made a bundle. Crap!

Shorting TSO…..
I , then proceeded to do a “net credit spread” on TSO for (20) contracts:
(20) TSO JUL07 $55 CALLS (TSOGK) @ $7.10
(20 TSO JUL07 $62.50 CALLS (TSOGU) @ $2.50
I am upside down on this position, as the stock and calls has moved higher (whipsawed again!)

I was so confident that this stock was due for a correction that I “naked shorted” (20) more JUL07 $55 (TSOGU) CALLS @ $8.80. Those calls have moved up to $9.90. I am down $2,200 on each position.

Why I think TSO (Tesoro) is ready to correct……..
1. TSO is now only about $ .80 above it’s all-time high. It really hasn’t “broken out” by much.
2. The “volume” is progressively falling off (see this chart by “frenchee”: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16194364, scroll down to the 4th chart, “volume” chart, and you can see that the volume is higher on down-days and lower on- up days. This looks like metered distribution to me?)
3. Per what I have read, there’s plenty of gas inventory around. Of course, there’s also plenty of crude around (why I can’t understand OXY going up). My guess, is that it is the last retail comers that are pushing TSO (and hence, VLO, MRO, etc.) up to their final highs. There are no high-volume spikes to make me believe the big boys are buying in at this time.
4. “Falling Chaikin Oscillator”, go back and look at a 1-year chart of TSO. It heading for the basement. I will send you a screen print of the chart I refer to on your personal e-mail address. This stock tanked in July/August of 2006.
5. While the many longs on the TSO yahoo board are content to hold their positions, thinking this stock won’t fall off till August, I (and other bears) think it will correct before then. A resident bear on the yahoo board is inclined to believe the stock will correct and retail buyers will rush in to “buy the dips”. It will then go up to a lower high and fall back. If so, the longs will know they have been scammed into buying a stock under distribution.
6. I am waiting to short again, as the volume drops progressively lower on TSO.


Any comments, always appreciated.
Plash

[SyndicateTwo]

OXY looking like a great short here. Those bear calls will work just fine. The NDX and DOW are actually both also looking like an ABC is about to happen.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=20120369

[plashadpobedy]

Opinion on EIA report coming out....31 May

This posted on the yahoo TSO board.....

"Why gasoline inventories will drop tommorrow (1 Rating) 30-May-07 06:34 pm The refiners rallied with the crack spread going down today. That means gasoline inventories will take a big drop tommorrow. Someone real big got a hand on the EIA numbers the day before and bought the refiners. (Oh come on, you're telling me a multibillion dollar fund hasn't found the right clerk to bribe). They forgot to buy ALJ, and I picked them up cheaply, as it was down 2% today. Obviously the person who bought the refiners was going to miss out on 1 or two. I suspect Paulson can get these numbers too and they go straight to GS. This report is worth hundreds of millions in advance on a big draw or build. No wonder why Paulson is taking a low paying job."

[plashadpobedy]

Nothing in particular in TSO, other than it seemed to be the one under the most distribution. I also had some VLO, (15) contracts which I dumped.

I dumped my longs in the morning when they had come up a little, but trading seemed rather muted and I expected all the refinery stocks to hammer-out. The volumes dropped off by 2pm yesterday, and that's when there was a sprint to jam these stocks up to new highs. I shorted TSO just before 2pm and then, they took off again.

The EIA report comes out today. I was afraid of a sell-off on the next session. I had (60) pre-split calls on TSO. I errored on the side of not losing a bundle here.

This looks to be the start of a "island gap" or short squeeze? The volume is modest. I was hoping for this, it just happened an hour or so later than when I covered my positions. Thursday EIA report made me want to dump my longs while I was still above water.

I did a net credit spread on TSO:

Sell (20) TSO JUL07 $55 CALL @ $7.10
Buy (20) TSO JUL07 $62.50 CALL @ $2.50

The $55 call closed at a bid of $8.20. I have the OXY net credit spread, but at only $ .95. It closed at $1.20. Never got to my previous $1.35 ask.

I really believe we are in the beginning of a fake-out island gap and this is the final push? But, of course, I could be wrong? All the indicators pointed to a correction here (on VLO) to possibly $102/sh (61.8% Fib), though not in one day.

The split on TSO couldn't have come at a worse time.

Well, correct me if I am wrong????

[SyndicateTwo]

Why the love with TSO?

[plashadpobedy]

Dumping refinery long call positions

Dumping everything I have on VLO & TSO. Fortunately, they are up some today, but I expect "hammers" to appear by the close.
I consider hammers at the top, the "kiss-of-death".

Net Credit spread on OXY.....
I have limit orders to sell (10) OXY JUN07 $55 CALLS @ $1.05. I got (10) OXY $60 CALLS @ $ .25 yesterday. Those are down to 10 cents now. OXY's going to hammer out hugging the bottom of the flat at ST support. Looks like toast, like the rest of the oil stocks.

I kick myself for not seeing the "correction" as "distribution at the top" soon enough.

Looking to do a vertical bear spread on TSO later today?

[plashadpobedy]

Hey, frenchee, been using your great charts on the TSO board, even though you haven't posted there in awhile on the TSO board. The "volume chart" (on TSO) is really telling.

Looks like I am going to have to fold this next session on VLO & TSO, as I am border-line on any profit here. Should have taken a $12K profit last week and ran.

I paste the below from the TSO board on yahoo. One of resident bears. Goldmans Sachs is one of TSO's biggest instituional holders. He is speaking about the high down- volume days vs. to the low up-volume days (as clearly shown by your TSO chart):

"Yes, this is confirmed by the Chaiken Money Flow indicator. Money flow has changed negative for the first time this year and has been a reliable indicator of a forthcoming price correction. Stay tuned. The balance of the year will be quite interesting especially the fourth quarter for TSO if gasoline crack falls under $16 during the seasonal slow period. It will demonstrate that the L.A. refinery can be a substantial drag on the company's bottom line during moderating refining margin periods. By then, I also anticipate there will be a lively debate regarding the end of the multi year bull market in refining equities. I read the Goldman Sachs report and I found it to be terribly lacking in any data or information that supports their long term bullish view. There was no discussion or projections about domestic and global refining capacity additions even though many new projects have been announced. There was no discussion pertaining to the saturated automobile household penetration and the retiring baby boom countering other age cohort increased gasoline demand. There was no discussion of new Federal Government fuel mileage standards for cars and trucks. Not a peep about the likely establishment of uniform national gasoline standards. No analysis of ethanol and biofuels becoming a competitor to gasoline. In fact, the report just contained conclusions with no facts to back them up. Seems similar to Goldman's previous call of a super spike in oil prices when crude was trading around $73 then it quickly fell to $40/barrel. One thing I found interesting in the Goldman report, they are recommending other refining stocks other than TSO which they carry a neutral rating on. What's wrong with those guys?"

[frenchee]

XLE rolling over? Price starting to follow its momentum indicators. Too early in the week for a sell signal but a Friday close < the 5-week EMA of price puts XLE on a sell for me...

[plashadpobedy]

VLO's last upmove truncated......
never made it out of the trough before pulling back. Looking at the volume, the down-days are higher than the up-days, on falling volume (scroll down for volume):
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16194364

I was hoping for a pop, but it may not happen? Looking to dump my VLO, TSO positions this next period.

OXY calls really dropped, kind of ruining my bear call spread a bunch.

The bears on the yahoo TSO board are shorting more, expecting a dip.

[plashadpobedy]

I'll stay away from shorting 3M. I don't quite understand why you say the DOW is 40% undervalued?

I got my (10) OXY JUN07 $60 CALLS (OXYFL) @ $.25, but the short on the $55s only as high as $ .95 this morning. Will wait to short on them another day.

I can't gleam much from today, trading range very narrow.
I'm up a bit more on TSO calls this morning, down on the VLOs.
On the bull side, they are holding their BB mean or above.

I expect OXY to do it's usual 100% fill though.

I dumped my entire UPDA.OB position at $0.051.

[SyndicateTwo]

3M will definitely be a leader if the DOW runs to 15,000 or better and it's just not worth the trade. Even if you're doing spreads month to month, you gotta be worried about that one day 'phantom' run that comes from no where.

I wonder how many were shorting MCD all year thinking, 'HEY! It's McDonalds! Why is it going up like this?????'

[plashadpobedy]

Friday, high volume on TSO calls...

Last Thursday, my earalier $12K unrealized gain on TSO calls was underwater. Friday, there was very high volume on my VLO AUG07 $110 CALLS (TSOHB), up $2.70. 518 contracts! That'a pretty bullish? Wonder if a "island gap" is in the works and they are going to squeeze short positions at the top?

This market never fails to surprise me. This is where the TA gets nailed.

[plashadpobedy]

S-1 thanks for your added insight here. I will cancel my MMM net credit spread. It looks good, but yeah, the market may not correct "on time" and keep going through June expiration.

[plashadpobedy]

S-1..thanks for this clarification about the Interactive Broker Spread Trader. I printed out the directions from the User's Guide and read it over and over, but I couldn't enter a "net credit spread". I thought I was real stupid. The only vertical spread combos they listed as choices had you "selling" a call with a "higher strike price" and "buying" a call with the "lower strike price". I was getting so frustrated.

Motley Fool is even saying oil/petrol is topped out here.

[SyndicateTwo]

Here's the problem with even considering shorting the DOW or any components - the DOW is probably up to 40% undervalued right now as long as interest rates stay under 5% on the 10 year. That means, but doesn't mean it will happen, that any short term dips will be bought.

We're in the 'sell in May and go away' mode here. But this could be a huge setup for shorts to wiped out. Last year we got that big May selloff. Many are probably betting on it again right now. And the market never hands out free money. So any perceived selling could lead to a major squeeze.

Stay away from shorting DOW stocks. The key in the DOW direction is to watch GE and C. If they are rolling, the the DOW will follow.

[SyndicateTwo]

IB for some reason doesn't have a built in combo order for Bear Call spreads. It's very strange. I think they just figured most will be doing bear put debit spreads (where you pay money for it) rather than credit spreads.

I just enter it in the old way. I put in both options in the main page on top of each other and buy the long call first and then short the other one after. The reason I do that rather than use the option trader to set it up in the manual way is because it takes too long in the option trader.

It's just easier to do it like a stock trade.


I was just looking at that VLO chart above and I think it's even looking more prime for a pullback and OXY is. Look at the VLO MACD falling as the stock has been rising.