Oil Stocks

[SyndicateTwo]

I think I mistakenly said $1.90 when I meant .90. Now it's gone up with the rise in the price since I mentioned it.

As far as UPDA, it wasn't supposed to go up on public buying for whatever technical or fundamental reason. It was supposed to be bought by private investors that I know because the purchase of the Kansas property was supposedly going to value the stock at millions on the just the real estate.

[plashadpobedy]

Net Credit Spread on 3M (MMM)?

Take a look at 3M if you have a chance:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MMM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82915733142

It really looks like a great short. A stock I've always wanted to own (premier US company), but didn't have the bucks. Buying it at support, around $68-$70/sh has usually been a sure thing.

Looks like it will roll-over big time here? S & P 500 putting in a Wave-5 and a hammer on Friday.

Any opinion here?

[plashadpobedy]

Orders for "Vertical Spread" (OXY)

S-2 put in my orders for: (10) OXYFX JUN07 $55C SELL @ $1.35
(10) OXYFL JUN07 $60C BUY @ $ .25

I haven't been able to get the Interactive Broker Spread Trader or Combo, to give me the right combInation of the strike prices. I give up for now, so I put the orders in separately one-by-one.

I suppose it doesn't make any difference?

I am going to be up for the next two nights (before the EIA REPORT on Thursday), to dump my VLO & TSO long calls.

Plash
Subic Bay, PI

[plashadpobedy]

Stocks at UPDA.OB would seem need the environment of a screaming bull market or a dire oil-supply situation to take off, that would attract small investors looking for something on the cheap. I had some limited-partnerships shares in a similar type company in the early 1970's called "Petro-Lewis" (oil-lease holdings). It jammed on the 1973 Oil Embargo, later faultering as oil supplies returned to normal, it went into a receivership and was put out on a public exchange. My financial advisor (who sold it to me) said to hold it, I thought that was crazy and sold it. When it hit the exchange, it went for the basement.

I was confused about your "spread" figure of $1.90, that's why I needed clarification.

Thanks for the update.

Plash
Subic Bay

[SyndicateTwo]

Hey Plash, sorry about UPDA. I was told that that was going to be a monster from the very guy who was in the buying group. He owed me a favor going back years and he thought this was the one. Apparently not. I really thought that that was the one that was going to make all you guys some big bux.

The OXY play is:

sell the $55 and buy the $60 for June. I show:

1.35 on the bid for the $55
.30 on the ask for the $60.

By selling the $1.35 and buying the .30, you'd end up with $1.05 credit. You short 10, and you get to keep $1,005.00 on June 15th if OXY is at or below $55. I think so.

You're break even is $56.05, meaning that if OXY closes at $56.05 on June 15th, you lose nothing, but make nothing.

So, anything under $56.05 is profit. I think it's a good play.


http://www.callsandputs.com/desc_BearCall.asp

[plashadpobedy]

S-1..Vertical Spread on OXY..

Per Friday's close:

Right now those options on OXY are:

OXY JUN07 $55 CALL (OXYFX) BID: $1.35 ASK: $1.45
OXY JUN07 $60 CALL (OXYFL) BID: $0.20 ASK: $0.30

You were talking about a $1.90 spread? Selling the $55's and buying the $60's.

Can you update the above for me?

Plash

P.S.
Bugging out of UPDA.OB on Tuesday.

[plashadpobedy]

EIA projects May as high for gas...

This posted May 23, 2007 (last Weds):

"Continuing problems for refineries in the United States and abroad, combined with strong global gasoline demand, have raised our projected average summer gasoline price by 14 cents per gallon from our last Outlook. Retail regular grade motor gasoline prices are now projected to average $2.95 per gallon this summer compared with the $2.84 per gallon average of last summer. During the summer season, the average monthly gasoline pump price is projected to peak at $3.01 per gallon in May and again in August, compared with $2.98 per gallon last July."

[plashadpobedy]

Link to EIA "Energy Information Agency"...
everything you wanted to know about petroleum, forecasts, etc.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html

The EIA "weekly" report normally comes out on Wednesdays, but this week due to the holiday on Monday, that will be rolled forward to this coming Thursday, 31 May.

Options on VLO & TSO really popped up on Friday. Surprised me? One more day like that and I will really be in the green. High deltas on both.

[SyndicateTwo]

I'll add those tomorrow. What I'm seeing in these stocks is that they are on the verge of at least pulling back. Gas prices usually spike right BEFORE summer starts. So, all these should pullback. The question is, will they just be pullbacks or new wave counts down?

[manningscolts]

how about hal and cvx

[plashadpobedy]

S-2..some "Bear" postings on Tesoro (TSO) March 25, 2007:

These are from the yahoo TSO board, but it's an identical situation with VLO as TSO. The only bear if could find on the TSO board. Sounds like he knows what he's talking about. Handle: "usefullfacts".

Here's the (3) posts. The last two, I asked him to give me his opinion on the time-line for Tesoro (TSO). It should apply directly to VLO also:

"Remember what happened with Katrina. Gasoline crack soared and people moaned at the pump, things couldn't be much better. You would think however most refiners' share prices were down more than 25% just months after. You owe it your financial health to do some real research and thinking about being invested in this stock right now. I urge you to make the effort if you do not like to lose money."

This is in reply to my post to him……about the "time-line" for a tank in the refinery stocks:

My view is that the big dump will be a series of sharp downs with oversold bounces as the bullish sheep get pulled into buy on the dips rally cry. The first real pain should begin next week with the EIA report on Wednesday. See, its too early to begin factoring in more hurricane related risk. The data is so overwhelmingly pointing to a major correction in this sector that I almost wet my pants."

He adds this in another reply to my post on the TSO board:

"I have no idea how it exactly will end. Too many people just focus on the technical action and don't know squat about the data that drives intermediate trends. I have witnessed over the years that it is dangerous to try to be too cute near the top of one of these spectacular runs. My view is that an large sell off will take place in the next two weeks. Than perhaps a bounce as we get the hurricane speculators and nervous shorts all covering on weather concerns. However, my view is also there will be a lower high on the charts since the gasoline supply and demand ratio is changing very quickly towards a large sell off in gasoline crack."

[TITAN]

And I get to post 2 lol

[SyndicateTwo]

I get to post first! Let's see how this ends up....I'll first post a chart above of OXY and VLO