News 
Market Data 
Discover
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Building block chart is YTD 1 Hr. Going to be watching as the year rolls along and see how leadership develops.
Metal miners have been on a tear to start the year. Pretty much any of them. I opted for LIT but one of the lithium processors, Livent (LTHM) has doubled up already on LIT
I took new positions today in Lithium (LIT) and lumber (WOOD). I like the setups developing on the weekly and daily charts looking at some pretty simplistic crossovers.
My portfolio building blocks for 2023 largely come from commodities. Energy, metals, agriculture and livestock, water. The basket here also includes a couple of plays in China equities as well as a managed futures fund. All ETFs.
You absolutely don't want to short TNA if you want to be short, go long TZA. There is an effect that goes by many names, such as creep, decay, etc. Me expericence tells me holding a 3x in the direction the funds were intended and there is a gain, I can expect an increase in gain in a 3x fund vs holding the same in a 1x fund. I have seen this over and over.
The issue is chop. Imagine prices being in channel moving up and down 15% over and over. So if a $1000 investment dropped -15% to 850, then gained 15%, the balance would only be $977.50. $22.50 was lost on the cycle.
For an equivalent investment of $3000 in a 1x fund moving in a 5% channel, the fund would drop to $2850 and move back to 2992.5. The lost would only be $7.5.
But as the up cycles become larger than the down cycles, the 3x funds start to shine.
Here the data for SPY, SPXL and SPXS for Dec. Since the month was a down month, the SPXS was the best fund to invest in and save 2/3 of your capital to boot.
2 months is a long time to be holding a 3x ETF. Below is the estimated decay for your example.
Approximately a 7.5% 'holding cost' is represented by the purple decay line I drew on the ETF pair chart below. The sideways chop the market has been going through the past few weeks would make this decay more noticeable too.
The 1x ETF would remain basically unchanged during sideways chop, but a 2x, and more so a 3x ETF of the same equity would display decay. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p14976638344
Thank you. I have looked at that ETF pair before and found they do not trade frequently enough to chart well for me.
With the coldest December in a generation just concluding, I expect the NatGas withdraw numbers in tomorrow's weekly report to be epic.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
My BOIL/KOLD chart pair (below) may flip from KOLD to BOIL soon. The KOLD run just concluding was a nice Christmas gift. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p19689404468
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p75828787710
RXL and RXD may be of interest to you. They are +2X and -2X Healthcare. I follow CURE and was looking for an inverse version. Found RXL and RXD instead. I just took a position in RXD.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year and thanks for the update!
Still believing in the basic thesis
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169688195
2020 Pandemic Year
2021 Supply Chain Year
2022 Inflation Year
2023 Recession Year
2024 and beyond - the flat recovery years
I am transitioning out of the ETF Optimizer portfolio which I must say I was really happy with in the first part of the year, but I saw it get tossed around in the second half of the year and they really seem to be adjusting their system on the fly trying to figure out the market turns.
I have stayed with Scott and team in their NEB group (mastermind). One of the more interesting themes and ideas brought to my attention is an ETF DBMF. It is a managed futures ETF utilizing a trend following system which in my simple mind keeps shuffling the leaders to the top of the deck of holdings and discards the laggards.
https://www.etftrends.com/managed-futures-channel/invest-in-the-trends-of-a-market-on-the-move-with-dbmf/
The trend following structure of the ETF I think (hope) smooths out the overall performance. The outperformance is there over it's brief history. The fees are low. It has a built-in sector diversification. As an ETF it fits the IRA approach nicely. I did make inquiries into different managed futures hedge funds that have lower initial investment thresholds, but can't beat the IRA at this stage for me. So DBMF works (until it doesn't).
Here is a variation that I have been working with...which is to take DBMF and .apply a simple crossover approach to holding a position in it. In other words, instead of buying at any given point and time and letting the ETF algos manage the market fluctuations use a simple crossover technique to try to avoid the bigger drawdowns and improve the overall performance.
* Simple Kalman Filter 20/50 Crossover system. Indicator available on Trading View (search for "ZELMA w/Kalman Filter [Morty]". The Kalman filter is hailed by Mole from RPQ Unlimited which he uses in his Gravitas system. The Kalman filter moving averages produce faster signals that SMA or EMA on their own IMHO.
** For my simple crossover approach I used the highest price on the day following the Buy signal to buy and the lowest price on the day following a Sell signal to sell to keep it less than optimized.
So using all of 2022 data, DBMF from the first trading day of the year stands at +20.74%. By using the crossover method described above yields a performance of +25.49%. Just one isolated year out of a very short history but I like the ETF on it's own to build a substantial position. There were 3 Buy and Sell turns in 2022. So very little "action" which is nice but not buy-and-hold either. A fourth Buy signal just happened last Thursday.
Other than this late activity in the last couple of months I've been staying pretty safe on the sideline and developing a strong sense that that is not the place to be either.
A prosperous 2023 to us all!
I don't remember waking up to this much green in the futures market.
Interesting reads from ZH. The chart says KOLD will be bold, but I don't know if nat gas can operate freely amid the global forces at work...as if it ever freely moves. I've tried a couple of plays on shorter 1 hour timeframes but largely staying away
I believe being on the short side of Bitcoin is the correct position. It appears Europe is leading the world markets down. -
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-implodes-its-leaders-plan-radical-intervention-including-price-setting-suspending?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=900
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eurasian-alliance-plans-moscow-world-standard-destroy-lbmas-monopoly-precious-metals?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=900
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sweden-austria-start-bailing-out-energy-companies-triggering-europes-minsky-moment?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=900
...and it appears Bitcoin remains correlated near 1 for 1 with the Nasdaq.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=25&id=p74983544514
BITI (a new ETF) is a way to short Bitcoin. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BITI&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p22691814406
Currently have a small short position on BTC started two weekends ago anticipating a weekend swoon. It is still holding. Looks like two impulses up and looking for that third one to break harder up...and BTC down.
I am glad you have something working well for you. Currently, I hold only short positions. Short Nasdaq (SQQQ), short Biotech (LABD), short tech-semiconductors (SOXS), and short gold (GDXD). GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p60822541611
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LABD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p80045521925
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOXS&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p39206626552
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p18879811466
Watching for an entry point in KOLD to present itself (next week?)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p79037986930
...and also watching for an entry point into all things crypto to present itself too. This includes the miners. It might be quite a while before it bottoms though.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=25&id=p74983544514
That is a good article. As does the author, I too have been using the 30% and 70% levels for $BPxxx charts.
I have also been playing with $BPxxx's in this chart style. Its a work in progress for me...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p69051637902
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p69051637902
Here is an interesting chart and article.
https://stockcharts.com/articles/mindfulinvestor/2022/08/im-calling-the-top-in-the-sp-5-370.html?mc_cid=6c122889b7&mc_eid=b6c072464f
AI
