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Interesting MARA analysis. This is currently my favorite Bitcoin miner stock - GLTY
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524429-marathon-digital-stock-short-squeeze-in-progress
It certainly can move lower, and may even crash. I try to pay attention to the charts and move accordingly.
Bitcoin is showing signs of upward movement,
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p06143052084
...so today I bought MARA @ $9.90.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MARA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p86843302569
Tonight I bought MATIC @ $0.93 (on Coinbase), and RUNE @ $2.66 (on Kucoin). GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24MATICUSD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p24882962152
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUNEUSD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p80783027925
ETH has been the big mover. Apparently as it morphs into its new skin as a less energy intensive coin to mine. I've been holding everything in ETH for the last few days anyway. Both Scott and Mike are both predicting a crash and new lows before the final floor is in.
All is well! NatGas has treated me well, but I am not killing it. I have learned to strive for singles and doubles, no longer swinging for the fence.
Good to hear you have aligned with a strategy you are comfortable following.
Once Bitcoin bottoms, I suggest you keep an eye on the miners. They have been beaten down tremendously and are poised for a huge rebound. I am watching ANY, HIVE, and RIOT closely, but will not move on any until Bitcoin bottoms on the daily chart (MACD 65) and turns positive. Could happen in the next week or two.
I hope you have kept your eye on XAIR. They received the long-awaited FDA approval late last week, and the stock has been on a tear this week. GLTY
I hope you are killing it on NG! Tell me you are. My ETF portfolio optimizer has kept me out of the market and in cash or short term treasuries for the last three weeks. I have stayed totally on strategy and without deviation. Up 4% for the first month and stayed there almost another month. Boring but accomplished goal of preservation of capital.
To keep things interesting I have this week off and have been putting to good use some of the concepts that Scott has been teaching on reversion to mean strategies. Specific chart formations worked very well at least yesterday when the market crashed pre-market and everything was heavily oversold. Very productive. Today is a different day so anxious to see how it develops.
Hope all is well!
In the past ~5 weeks, LUNA coin has gone from over $100/coin to well under a penny/coin. Tonight it is at 0.000074/coin !
https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/crypto/luna-cryptocurrency-collapse-how-ust-broke-and-why-it-matters/
https://fortune.com/2022/05/13/luna-terra-ust-stablecoin-do-kwon-wife-protection-crypto-crash/
...so tonight I spent a bit over $100 to pick up over 1,550,000 LUNA coins. Over 1.5M coins.
I doubt it recovers back to $100/coin, but once they figure out how to solve their problems, some bounce could occure.
If they don't, and it washes out, I'm only out $100. GLTY.
IF NatGas crosses well below the ~$6.50 resistance level and gets to the ~$6.00 level, THEN the outstanding gains in KOLD will occur as it goes even lower to the next (less substantial) 2 support levels.
The speed at which the NatGas market dropped from ~$9 TO ~$7 in the past two trading days was significant to me. GLTY
https://www.fxempire.com/commodities/natural-gas
https://schrts.co/QXyPMSyk
We seem to have a bear on our hands seven months and counting. I think this one could be drawn out like the great recession of 2007 - 2009 which was about 18 months. Who knows about this but it seems like a long game that has to play out with interest rates, taming inflation, global geopolitical and economic transformations.
Yes, I watched it yesterday. Basically showing a stronger correlation to the last 90 - 120 days. Of course, he and Scott both trying to keep a stiff upper lip for the paying customers. Cleary though, all markets peaked last November and are in the same leaky boat.
You can skip to 16:30 to get to the end result. FYI
I've played some with XAIR and did pretty well on some short swings. At the moment I am out of everything except a position in KOLD that I trade a part of and hold a part of. I am not comfortable with the market at all.
If you are still holding XAIR, +16% on news today -
https://risingcandle.com/business/beyond-air-xair-gains-15-as-lungfit-pro-reports-positive-study-data/
I am guessing todays news release is an indication the FDA evaluation and hoped for approval is going well.
A large number of XAIR insiders hold significant shares of this company. GLTY
https://fintel.io/n/us/xair
I found this video tutorial on the Kucoin Spot Grid trading bot. I learned a few new things by watching it. Thought you might find it useful too.
GLTY
$Natgas dropped to ~$7.00 today.
On the chart below are the support levels I am watching. The first one is ~$6.50. Break below that, and its ~$5.40, then ~$4.60. I am watching for $Natgas to drift lower into the summer months, then begin a turn around into the next heating season in August/September.
Here is a forecast from earlier today. I added the bold text for emphasis. I have limit sell orders in place for 100% gains at my three KOLD buy points. Now I just sit and wait for the market to come to me. GLTY
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-markets-get-clobbered-2-972340
Today's NatGas update. I added the bold to the below text for emphasis.
http://celsiusenergy.co/p/daily-commentary.html
FYI I have put Good till Closed (GTC) limit sell orders in place for the KOLD shares I hold so as to achieve a 100% gain for each purchase price. It might take a few weeks, but I will let this play out. GLTY
Today could be the blow-off top/bottom. I started nibbling again
This morning's NatGas update. I added the bold to the text for emphasis. Today might be a good day to buy some KOLD. GLTY
http://celsiusenergy.co/p/daily-commentary.html
Well then, best of luck to you with all that. I would appreciate any insight you might be willing to share.
I am ~24 months away from my retirement BTW. GLTY
I have. I found two that are useful for me when the general altcoin population trend is rising.
The first one I have come to like and use is 'Spot Grid'. When the altcoin trend is favorable, I go to the metaverse matrix, and Difi matrix I created. I use the top altcoin shown in each matrix and set up a Spot Grid BOT for each. I let the Spot Grid BOT's run as long as the specific coin is still top in the matrix, and also the general altcoin trend is positive. I could let this run for a week or more, until a new coin becomes tops on the matrix, or the general altcoin market trend breaks down.
The second one I have come to use is 'Smart Rebalance', but I don't use it the way it is intended. When the altcoin trend is favorable, I go to 'Crypto Bubbles' and rank and stack the Kucoin tradable altcoins to find the top 4 percentage gainers in the last 24-hour period. I use the 'create own portfolio' feature and plug in the 4 selected coins, balance them all equally at 25%, set a loss limit for each at 15%, I set no profit limit (let the runners run), and do not set a rebalance time. I then repeat the Crypto Bubbles rank and stack the following day at roughly the same time of day, and start all over again with the new coins.
https://cryptobubbles.net/
Here is a simple dial gauge I use in addition to charts; https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
FYI, I don't venture into altcoins until this 'Fear and Greed' gauge is above 50%. Above 66% is even better.
Here is a video that will help instruct;
My biggest update is that I have joined in with Scott's CSI group. It wasn't an impulsive decision but one that I took after reviewing the pre-course sell, the rules of the trades and an onboarding call. In essence I will be flipping from Mole's monthly RPQ (options) system to this CSI system.
I found that with the RPQ monthly I had to be in place and ready for a recommendation more or less as the rec is sent out during trading hours. I just can't synchronize my schedule with that. For the CSI system, the entire strategy is self-implemented at any point during the always open crypto market. In essence it can be an evening process to take two trades a day, one long and one short.
This is also a strategy that can used on Kucoin where most of my activity is now located. It is based on perpetual futures and the associated funding rates which tip the playing field to either long or short bias.
The trading rules are based on price action and are the biggest part of the learning curve. There are a are both a long and a short trade using two different but related
set of rules. The rules are pretty simple but the implementation and order entry instructions will take admittedly a lot of practice.
There are three tiers for sale. First (for $2) is the digital course only with no individual or group training or access. The second which I took (for $4) is a 12 week group Zoom instruction led by Scott or others on his team. A lot of practice on the setups and leads to eventual group trading. The third (for $8 I guess) is direct for 12 weeks with Scott.
Thirty months left on my retirement clock...and time is ticking away
No, sure haven't. I think you mentioned bots quite a while ago. They seem pretty positively reviewed. Have you done any work with them?
Have you experimented with the Trading BOT's available on Kucoin yet?
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220117005039/en/
This morning's NatGas update from http://celsiusenergy.co/p/daily-commentary.html
GLTY
I am watching NatGas again this week.
Take a look at the BOIL chart. To me it is over extended to the top side. IMO this has occurred over the past 2-3 weeks for mostly geopolitical reasons, but also production output has remained low for the past 2-3 weeks.
Also, one more blast of cold air expected in the South east, and East Coast later this week end weekend.
https://www.weather.gov/gjt/ColdFront
I am waiting/watching/looking for this to turn around and be positioned in KOLD for a quick +50% late this week or early next week (once this weekends cold snap is old news). IMO this expected KOLD reverse may be quick and occur over this coming weekend presenting a next Monday gap up in KOLD.
I am looking to get into KOLD at ~$10 this week, and out at ~$15 next week.
GLTY
FYI, this mornings NatGas update -
I found M's post yesterday very interesting.
He may have identified what the future 'something breaks' event that sets the market tumbling.
IF the crypto market is now aligned with Nasdaq market moves as some are spouting these days, well this is something to watch.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoins-correlation-to-equities-is-rising
GLTY
Impending (maybe) invasion of Taiwan. Total control over semiconductors. Ford, GM, Stellantis (FCA) sales down 20-25% in Q1. Demand destruction.
Shareholder letter from the CEO of the biggest bank in the world. It's quite a read... GLTY
https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2019/ar-ceo-letters.htm
Here's the Cliff Notes version -
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-04-04/five-key-takeaways-from-jamie-dimons-letter-to-jpmorgans-investors
Five Key Takeaways From Jamie Dimon's Letter to JPMorgan's Investors
By Reuters
|
April 4, 2022, at 5:37 a.m.
U.S. News & World Report
Five Key Takeaways From Jamie Dimon's Letter to JPMorgan's Investors
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co, published his closely watched annual letter to shareholders on Monday, covering critical issues including the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, sanctions, inflation and interest rates.
Here are five of the key takeaways from the letter:
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL STRONG...
Dimon has long been bullish on the U.S. economy and repeated that message in his letter, noting the average American consumer is "in excellent financial shape" with leverage among the lowest on record, excellent mortgage underwriting, plentiful jobs with wage increases and more than $2 trillion in excess savings.
...BUT INFLATION WILL REQUIRE AGGRESSIVE RATE HIKES
The Federal Reserve and the government were right to take bold actions amid the pandemic, but stimulus probably lasted too long, said Dimon. He believes the rate rises needed to rein in inflation would be "significantly higher than the markets expect."
Dimon also had some advice for the Fed: it shouldn't worry about the market volatility rate rises will cause unless that volatility affects the economy. It should be flexible in its plan and be prepared to respond quickly to events on the ground.
THE WAR IN UKRAINE WILL SLOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
"The hostilities in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia are already having a substantial economic impact," Dimon wrote.
JPMorgan economists think that the euro area, highly dependent on Russia for oil and gas, will see GDP growth of roughly 2% in 2022, instead of the 4.5% pace expected just before the invasion began. By contrast, they expect the U.S. economy to advance roughly 2.5% versus a previously estimated 3%, Dimon wrote.
"These estimates are based upon a fairly static view of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions now in place," Dimon wrote. More Russia sanctions are possible, he noted.
"Along with the unpredictability of war itself and the uncertainty surrounding global commodity supply chains, this makes for a potentially explosive situation," he wrote.
...THE WORLD MAY BE FACING AN "UNPRECEDENTED" MOMENT
The confluence of the dramatic stimulus-fueled recovery from the pandemic, the likely need for rapid rate rises, the war in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia may be unprecedented.
"They present completely different circumstances than what we’ve experienced in the past – and their confluence may dramatically increase the risks ahead," Dimon wrote, adding the war will also affect geopolitics for decades.
WITHOUT STRONG AMERICAN LEADERSHIP "CHAOS" WILL PREVAIL
"American global leadership is the best course for the world and for America," Dimon wrote. Since nature abhors a power vacuum, it is increasingly clear that without strong American leadership "chaos likely will prevail," he added.
However, he noted the world does not want an "arrogant" America bossing everyone around, but an America that works with allies, collaborating and compromising.
"We can organize military and economic frameworks that make the world safe and prosperous for democracy and freedom only if we work with our allies," he added.
I think what he is doing is taking his favorite coins - the ones he likes the most because he thinks they are the strongest or have the most pop potential - and then building these sector graphs. I did not know Trading View had the ability to "add" two or more coins together. I have not played with that yet. I like the idea and will try some things over the next few days.
I answered my own question by looking at your post more closely.
I see Defi, and Metaverse, which are the two I am following.
I also see Exchange Coins, Next Gen Layer 2, and SOL, LUNA, and AVAX, which are just three coins.
Exchange coins are not interesting to me. I understand them to be just go-between coins. Used for exchanging funds from one coin to another coin. No value add as I see it.
Next Gen Layer 2 is a tangent of DeFi.
https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-for-beginners/arbitrum-a-beginners-guide-to-the-next-generation-layer-2-for-ethereum
SOL is both a Defi and NFT coin, LUNA is a Defi coin, and AVAX is both a Defi and a Blockchain coin. LUNA is on my matrix. I may add SOL and AVAX this week.
Thank you! GLTY
Sectors? Now that's interesting. Which ones?
https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
Well, you can be insane and right. There is still a lot of money sloshing around. If bonds are not offering a return money will want to make money. I see it in crypto now. Every darn alt out there has a buy me look. This is an idea from Scott this morning who is trying to build sectors instead of single coins. Definitely a move to full alt-season tonight.
You can call me insane, but I am preparing for an epic rally in both equities and crypto, and for it to begin in weeks, not months. Gathering and holding cash in preparation.
I am watching this chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y-%24UST2Y&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72642744709&a=1090588334
I will be using the big three matrix, crypto miners matrix, and 11 S&P sector rotation matrix to help pick the horses I ride.
Supporting info below. GLTY
I am super cautious to the point of not liking to hold much of anything over the weekend. I sold a nice 2-day position in SOXS...early apparently. I did pick up a bit more CLSK as I get more comfortable that the bottom is solidly in place. I see a lot of wet blankets on the market. I think demand destruction is happening but hard to say how significant it will be.
BTW this is my 'be quick to get out' signal chart for my 'Big Three' matrix selection'. Watching it closely this week. Too many red bars and I am out until a new bottom forms. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p70352046572
Here is a image of my 'Big Three' matrix. Let me know if you want a copy.
Bonus video for you -
As I understand it, M and S use altcoins in BTC units of measure because acquiring a maximum amount to BTC before the next BTC melt-up is the overriding goal.
Altcoins in USD units of measure are acceptable if the goal is acquiring a maximum amount of USD.
As long as the units of measure are consistent among all altcoins being compared on a matrix or on a spaghetti chart, the results should be equivalent.
Also, I have an opinion on when and why the next BTC melt-up may occur.
This first chart (link provided) will make sense to you after you read this entire post and the short video at the end.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y-%24UST2Y&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57245409779&a=1090588334
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR#
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y-%24UST2Y&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43807530861&a=1090588334
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43553442144
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32773232721
Now watch this video beginning at 3:30, and pay particular attention to the chart at 5:10. At 7:45 to 8:00, all this comes together and will make sense. I believe stocks and Bitcoin will melt up together once the fed stair step rate raising tops out and starts back down.
Interesting. Spent a lot of time wandering around on Coin Gecko. I got lost in there. That's a good resource!
I was looking at your two matrices. I was wondering how those would look if you did them all paired against BTC instead of USD? Do you think that would change their relative ranking against each other?
I created a spaghetti chart of the metaverse coins you have in the matrix to see what it shows. All relative to BTC. The starting point being the bottom re-test low of Feb 24th...the market low in my mind.
There are many ways people are attempting to apply crypto to solve problems. IMO, most are fantasyland. A few are valid. Coin Gekko has attempted to put these into categories here -
https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
Two of these categories I understand are Decentralized Finance (a tangent on the banking industry), and Metaverse (a tangent on the gaming industry).
https://www.investopedia.com/decentralized-finance-defi-5113835#:~:text=Decentralized%20finance%20(DeFi)%20is%20an,financial%20products%2C%20and%20financial%20services.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-metaverse-will-it-be-a-decentralized-haven-or-a-centralized-tyranny
Not all altcoins available in these two categories are available on Stockcharts, but many are. I created a matrix for each category using 11 of each that are.
GLTY
They don't call them shit coins for nothing. BTC and ETH are both clearing some hurdles from earlier this year. Good chance to move up to the next levels in the near term. I still think both of those and alts and every market is constrained by the supply chain crisis + inflation + rising interest rates + geopolitics + the energy shock.
I think recession is approaching later this year and there are no sure things to bull forward. Mole had a "you ain't seen nothing yet" post last week.
Need to stay nimble but I am happy since the Jan crypto lows.
Thx for the PM. I signed up for April 6th infomercial put on by S. The prelude to it mentions the use of futures, something I am not interested in utilizing. So, if this is his sales pitch, I will not be participating.
The boys beat the bushes hard for several weeks to get a large subscriber base. No doubt that base is bitter by now. I would not like to be receiving their emails and phone calls these days.
To me, altcoins are like penny stocks. They are all shiny objects. Some more than others. Their core use is to sell them to someone else before they tarnish. They are a popularity trade. I have little interest in chasing penny stocks based on someone else's guidance that changes daily.
I have begun to use my Coinbase account to trade into and out of Bitcoin and Ethereum only, striving to gather as much Bitcoin as possible over time. I will use my Kucoin account to trade the Metaverse coins that can be charted on Stockcharts, and other high flyer coins I identify using CryptoBubbles.
Bitcoin is showing strength this weekend, attempting to break above its recent trading channel. I will be slow to buy and quick to sell Ethereum going forward since Ethereum is favored over Bitcoin this week.
GLTY
The boys have been selling this move hard over the last few days. A lot of unhappy customers gnashing their teeth. I still see both in a trading range. They are showing nice movement since the crisis low in Jan and the Feb retest...they both have a breakout look to them. We will see soon. The spaghetti chart can still spot some breakout coins. OGN was the play last week. I am holding GLM, MIR and NEAR (all on Kucoin) along with the miners. If Jan-Feb was THE low than things will be pretty good soon. But if geopolitics, inflation and rising interest rates tighten their grip then more rough seas ahead.
From M tonight - 'I'll send an email out to everyone now and then exchange my BTC for ETH'
The below chart is still accurate...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD%3A%24ETHUSD&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p58340975072
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