Monday, December 26, 2022 5:59:16 PM
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year and thanks for the update!
Still believing in the basic thesis
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169688195
2020 Pandemic Year
2021 Supply Chain Year
2022 Inflation Year
2023 Recession Year
2024 and beyond - the flat recovery years
I am transitioning out of the ETF Optimizer portfolio which I must say I was really happy with in the first part of the year, but I saw it get tossed around in the second half of the year and they really seem to be adjusting their system on the fly trying to figure out the market turns.
I have stayed with Scott and team in their NEB group (mastermind). One of the more interesting themes and ideas brought to my attention is an ETF DBMF. It is a managed futures ETF utilizing a trend following system which in my simple mind keeps shuffling the leaders to the top of the deck of holdings and discards the laggards.
https://www.etftrends.com/managed-futures-channel/invest-in-the-trends-of-a-market-on-the-move-with-dbmf/
The trend following structure of the ETF I think (hope) smooths out the overall performance. The outperformance is there over it's brief history. The fees are low. It has a built-in sector diversification. As an ETF it fits the IRA approach nicely. I did make inquiries into different managed futures hedge funds that have lower initial investment thresholds, but can't beat the IRA at this stage for me. So DBMF works (until it doesn't).
Here is a variation that I have been working with...which is to take DBMF and .apply a simple crossover approach to holding a position in it. In other words, instead of buying at any given point and time and letting the ETF algos manage the market fluctuations use a simple crossover technique to try to avoid the bigger drawdowns and improve the overall performance.
* Simple Kalman Filter 20/50 Crossover system. Indicator available on Trading View (search for "ZELMA w/Kalman Filter [Morty]". The Kalman filter is hailed by Mole from RPQ Unlimited which he uses in his Gravitas system. The Kalman filter moving averages produce faster signals that SMA or EMA on their own IMHO.
** For my simple crossover approach I used the highest price on the day following the Buy signal to buy and the lowest price on the day following a Sell signal to sell to keep it less than optimized.
So using all of 2022 data, DBMF from the first trading day of the year stands at +20.74%. By using the crossover method described above yields a performance of +25.49%. Just one isolated year out of a very short history but I like the ETF on it's own to build a substantial position. There were 3 Buy and Sell turns in 2022. So very little "action" which is nice but not buy-and-hold either. A fourth Buy signal just happened last Thursday.
Other than this late activity in the last couple of months I've been staying pretty safe on the sideline and developing a strong sense that that is not the place to be either.
A prosperous 2023 to us all!
Still believing in the basic thesis
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169688195
2020 Pandemic Year
2021 Supply Chain Year
2022 Inflation Year
2023 Recession Year
2024 and beyond - the flat recovery years
I am transitioning out of the ETF Optimizer portfolio which I must say I was really happy with in the first part of the year, but I saw it get tossed around in the second half of the year and they really seem to be adjusting their system on the fly trying to figure out the market turns.
I have stayed with Scott and team in their NEB group (mastermind). One of the more interesting themes and ideas brought to my attention is an ETF DBMF. It is a managed futures ETF utilizing a trend following system which in my simple mind keeps shuffling the leaders to the top of the deck of holdings and discards the laggards.
https://www.etftrends.com/managed-futures-channel/invest-in-the-trends-of-a-market-on-the-move-with-dbmf/
The trend following structure of the ETF I think (hope) smooths out the overall performance. The outperformance is there over it's brief history. The fees are low. It has a built-in sector diversification. As an ETF it fits the IRA approach nicely. I did make inquiries into different managed futures hedge funds that have lower initial investment thresholds, but can't beat the IRA at this stage for me. So DBMF works (until it doesn't).
Here is a variation that I have been working with...which is to take DBMF and .apply a simple crossover approach to holding a position in it. In other words, instead of buying at any given point and time and letting the ETF algos manage the market fluctuations use a simple crossover technique to try to avoid the bigger drawdowns and improve the overall performance.
* Simple Kalman Filter 20/50 Crossover system. Indicator available on Trading View (search for "ZELMA w/Kalman Filter [Morty]". The Kalman filter is hailed by Mole from RPQ Unlimited which he uses in his Gravitas system. The Kalman filter moving averages produce faster signals that SMA or EMA on their own IMHO.
** For my simple crossover approach I used the highest price on the day following the Buy signal to buy and the lowest price on the day following a Sell signal to sell to keep it less than optimized.
So using all of 2022 data, DBMF from the first trading day of the year stands at +20.74%. By using the crossover method described above yields a performance of +25.49%. Just one isolated year out of a very short history but I like the ETF on it's own to build a substantial position. There were 3 Buy and Sell turns in 2022. So very little "action" which is nice but not buy-and-hold either. A fourth Buy signal just happened last Thursday.
Other than this late activity in the last couple of months I've been staying pretty safe on the sideline and developing a strong sense that that is not the place to be either.
A prosperous 2023 to us all!
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