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Nice move for gold. Could this be the long awaited breakout? The gold chart has been forming a bullish cup + handle for 12 years, and a break out seems inevitable. So could this be the start, I wonder? Over the last 4 years gold has also formed a bullish inverted head + shoulders. Anyway, the chart says 'breakout' at some point. The gold suppression mechanism is still operational, so will see what happens.
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I don't disagree.....double negative way of saying ....yes, I guess.
Derf, >> breakouts <<
Speaking of breakouts, some of the warehouse REIT charts look like breakouts right now -- Prologis (PLD) and Terreno Realty (TRNO). These have been excellent long term holdings, but were hit in 2022 with the rising % rates, and then had a one year sideways consolidation. But looks like they could be ready to resume their long term uptrend. I had some PLD a few years back, and had planned to get back in at some point.
The broader REIT sector has the commercial office space problems, but warehouse and data center REITS in general look solid. The data center side (EQIX) already had its break out a month ago, and now it looks like the industrial warehouse side is next. Dividends ~ 2.8%
Btw, I see these as buy / holds, but for shorter term trading ideas there is this other board (link below). In addition to breakouts, another trading strategy with decent odds is to channel trade a stock that's in an extended uptrend. Buy at the bottom of the channel, sell at the top, then repeat. I haven't tried it myself, but the stock's long term uptrend will tend to bail out any mistakes in timing, so seems like a logical trading approach. Fwiw, I tried a few 'pincher plays' many years ago, but the odds there are poor at best.
Trading Ideas -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Trading-Ideas-41401
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>>> ADM Delays Annual Report as It Warns on Internal Controls
Bloomberg
by Simon Casey and Gerson Freitas Jr.
March 1, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adm-delays-annual-report-warns-123048655.html
(Bloomberg) -- Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. delayed its annual report and indicated that a “material weakness” in its internal controls won’t have a broad impact on earnings.
The Chicago-based company, one of the world’s top agricultural commodity traders, said the issue with internal controls relates to the way it reports sales between segments, according to a regulatory filing Friday. As a result, it doesn’t expect an impact on balance sheets, earnings statements, income or cash flow.
The brief update comes after ADM stunned investors and the commodities trading world earlier this year by placing its Chief Financial Officer Vikram Luthar on administrative leave pending an internal probe. The US Attorney’s Office in Manhattan has launched an investigation into the reporting of inter-segment transactions, people familiar with the matter said last month.
The company’s accounting investigation is centered around its nutrition unit, which makes higher-value products including flavorings and pet-food ingredients.
The filing suggests that a zero-sum outcome to ADM’s investigation “is becoming increasingly likely,” Morgan Stanley analyst Steven Haynes said in a note, adding it’s still not clear how much earnings will be shifted from the nutrition unit to the other company businesses.
ADM’s shares rose as much as 3.1% on Friday, but are still down almost 25% this year.
The probe has also thrown the spotlight on the decade-long push, largely under the leadership of Chief Executive Officer Juan Luciano, to lessen ADM’s dependence on its legacy agricultural commodities trading business.
Read More: ADM Probe Highlights Struggle to Expand Beyond Crop Trading
ADM expanded the nutrition business with its $3 billion purchase of European natural ingredient maker Wild Flavors a decade ago, its biggest-ever acquisition. It also spent almost $1.8 billion buying out French animal feed maker Neovia.
But profits have so far failed to live up to initial expectations due to weak demand, including for plant-based food and animal feed ingredients.
The unit also played an outsized role on recent executive bonuses even as it accounted for a relatively small part of the agribusiness giant’s business.
Read More: ADM Unit Being Probed Helped Make Leaders Over $70 Million
ADM said its form 10-K, which was originally expected in February, will be filed by March 15, within the extension period allowed under US rules. It anticipates correcting certain inter-segment sales that “were not recorded at amounts approximating market.”
ADM also said it’s working to remediate the material weakness, which will be explained further in its annual report.
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>>> Is Prologis Stock a Buy?
by Reuben Brewer
Motley Fool
March 2, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prologis-stock-buy-141800671.html
Prologis (NYSE: PLD) has a market cap of $120 billion, making it one of the largest publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) you can buy. There's a good reason it's so large, but size alone is no reason to buy the stock of a company. In fact, Prologis, despite being a well-run company, may be a less than desirable choice for some investors. Here's what you need to know.
Prologis' business is big, diversified, and attractive
Prologis owns warehouses, which is not unique at all in the REIT sector. What sets it apart from its peers is the size and diversification of its portfolio. Prologis owns 1.2 billion square feet of leasable space spread over 5,500 properties across four continents and 20 countries. No other warehouse REIT comes close to those statistics.
Notably, the properties Prologis owns are mostly located in key global distribution hubs. So not only is its portfolio big, but its properties are located where its over 6,700 customers want to operate. Given its scale, meanwhile, Prologis can actually offer something of a one-stop shop for customers with global operations.
On top of that, the company has been benefiting from leases ending and being resigned at materially higher rates. So there's built-in growth within the active properties it owns. Prologis, however, also owns over 12,000 acres of developable land around the world. That's another $40 billion growth opportunity, by management's estimate.
Now add in a decade of dividend growth at a compound annual rate of around 11%. That's an attractive track record for any company, but particularly impressive for a REIT. The most recent annual increase was 10%, so the company is still going strong on this measure. Given the business backdrop, meanwhile, there's good reason to think the dividend growth story will continue. If you are a dividend growth investor, Prologis could be a very attractive choice.
Prologis' yield is both good and bad
Prologis is currently offering investors a 2.8% dividend yield. If you're looking to live off of the income your portfolio generates, that probably won't be the least bit exciting to you. The average REIT, using Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSEMKT: VNQ) as a proxy, is offering a yield of over 4.1%. This is a dividend growth stock, not a high-yield stock.
That said, the dividend yield is around the middle of the road if you look at the REIT's yield range over the past decade. So while it would be hard to suggest the stock is cheap right now, it also doesn't look expensive, using yield as a rough proxy for valuation. If you're a growth-and-income or dividend growth-focused investor, a fair price for a well-positioned industry giant like Prologis is a pretty attractive proposition.
But the stock isn't trading at depressed levels, so value investors will probably also want to take a pass here. A yield above 3% would be a far more compelling entry point if you're value conscious. However, even that might not be enough to entice a yield-focused investor.
A fair price for a great company
Prologis is not a value stock, and it's not a high yield stock. It will probably never be either of those things, given its strong industry position. But it is a solid option for dividend growth and growth-and-income investors. While it looks fully priced today, it's not a bad thing to pay a fair price for a well-run company if you have a long investment horizon.
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I dunno. I mean there are definitely some bots around here, but if latoria is one, perhaps there's a better way to use it. What are the key words to get research done?
Derf, >> Latoria <<
I'm pretty sure that Latoria is an Ai bot. Her posts merely re-state the info from the post she is responding to. Fwiw, my theory is that I-Hub is using bots like Latoria to boost the daily activity numbers for I-Hub. The more activity, the more I-Hub can charge for running ads. So I figure it's just a revenue enhancement ploy by I-Hub.
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I'm trying to figure you out.
I notice you don't post often. When you do, it tends to be logical. However, you also seem to be focused on crypto.
You gave a list of stocks last August for long term. Some have done well so far, and some not....but they are solid picks.
Those ARE some contrarian ideas! The only one I'd consider gambling on (if I were you) right now is $FSLR. Although POOL looks like a possibility.
Since I'm not really a great contrarian, I'd want to see FSLR above $162 before I trusted it. But it's at $154 currently.
Many many years ago, I knew the guy who ran ...geez...can't recall if it was MFS or Mainstay or Dreyfus's Contrarian Fund. He was just coming off a great year of 63% return. But his mutual fund was unlike any other.
At the time, he was holding 3 stocks and 87% cash. I need to see if that fund still exists and whether or not he has retired.
Considering I'm a chart guy and look for breakouts, I'm probably a poor source for contrarian picks.
Absolutely! First Solar's mission to provide solar energy solutions is incredibly inspiring. It's refreshing to see a company not only prioritize innovation but also actively contribute to a more sustainable future. Their dedication to addressing global energy challenges with clean and efficient technology is something to applaud. It's companies like First Solar that give us hope for a brighter, greener tomorrow.
It's intriguing to see the potential for recovery in some sectors, especially in the aftermath of turbulent events like the Ukraine war and the fluctuations in the energy market. The observation about solar stocks like FSLR and ENPH hinting at a rebound is notable, particularly with FSLR's substantial order backlog. Clean energy investments, despite their recent downturn, may indeed regain traction as environmental concerns continue to drive policy and investment decisions globally.
EPAM's situation underscores the ripple effects of geopolitical events on businesses, with its exposure to Eastern Europe impacting its performance. The prospect of a turnaround for such companies presents an opportunity for investors willing to exercise patience and ride out the volatility.
In the pharmaceutical sector, while ABBV and AMGN are recognized names, PFE's struggle to find its bottom reflects the challenges facing the industry amid regulatory changes and market dynamics.
POOL's journey from a significant decline in 2022 to its ongoing recovery illustrates the resilience of certain stocks and their capacity for rebounding from adversity.
Overall, these turnaround ideas underscore the importance of thorough analysis and strategic patience in navigating volatile markets. While opportunities for recovery exist, it's essential to balance optimism with a realistic assessment of risks and challenges inherent in each investment.
Derf, Looks like some of the solar stocks 'might' be getting ready for a recovery. FSLR and ENPH charts have firmed up, and I see that FSLR has an order backlog going out for years. I had a bunch of the clean energy ETFs during the big 2020 runup, and figure these will eventually come back into favor at some point. NEE is another clean energy related turnaround idea, but I figure these will take patience.
Another turnaround idea is EPAM. It's a great company but had a big exposure to Eastern Europe, so got clobbered by the Ukraine war. The chart is looking interesting for a recovery.
On another board you mentioned pharma stocks ABBV and AMGN. One turnaround idea in that sector is PFE, but still hasn't found a bottom.
POOL is another turnaround idea. It was cut in half in 2022, but has been in recovery mode.
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>>> First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United State, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
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>>> Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH), together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers semiconductor-based microinverter, which converts energy at the individual solar module level and combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. It also provides microinverter units and related accessories, an IQ gateway; IQ batteries; the cloud-based Enlighten monitoring service; storage solutions; and electric vehicle charging solutions, as well as design, proposal, permitting, and lead generation services. The company sells its solutions to solar distributors; and directly to large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners, and homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program or online store. Enphase Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
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Derf, >> PHO, FIW <<
There's an updated summary on my Water Sector board (link below). Scroll down on that page to see their current holdings. Looks like PHO has more concentration in the top holdings, but performance has been very similar. The expense ratio difference isn't that much (0.60% vrs 0.53%), but both are somewhat on the high side. Performance-wise, FIW and PHO both beat the other Water ETFs by a sizable margin (CGW, EBLU, FLOWX, PIO), and FIW / PHO have beaten the S+P 500 over time.
So a good way to participate in the sector. I noticed their portfolios have shifted away from water utilities more toward the equipment type areas. I figure one problem with water utilities is the amount of $ that will need to go into improving their aging infrastructure. That will be a drag on utility's earnings, but will be a boost for the equipment suppliers. So that could explain the shift away from the utilities toward the 'picks + shovel' type stocks -
Water Investment Ideas -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Water-Investment-Ideas-31293
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I wonder what the difference in holdings is between PHO and FIW? Are you saying FIW is lower cost? That's interesting.
I'm thinking a fair value for RTX is closer to $110.
Yeah, I do have multi million invested. Funny thing is, no matter what you have, it doesn't feel like enough lately the way........Dang it! A golf ball just hit my window next to me! .....anyway, inflation is going to be a far more brutal problem than people realize. Ran some numbers last year and for those who had thought $1 million was the amount they needed to retire comfortably, I think was now closer to $2.3 million....and that was last year!
With the lifestyle we choose to live, and considering the spousal_units family all live to 104, a good number is probably at least double....but that's not factoring in health issues or market corrections.
The only guys I know who don't seem to be worried at all what they spend are the $50 million+ buddies of mine. Since I'm not yet there, all these trades count.
Meanwhile, there's a college tournament outside my house and these kids keep trying to reach the green!!
Derf, PHO seems like a great choice, along with FIW, although they both have fairly high expense ratios (0.60%, 0.53%). I had some in the past, but currently only have some individual stocks in the water related sector (BMI, ROP, TTEK, WTS), and DHR has some water exposure. I might add some PHO and FIW though. They've both beaten the S+P 500 over the long run.
With RTX, it's been more volatile than I like to see, compared to LMT and NOC. But for the Aero / Defense sector I went with the broad ETF (PPA), supplemented by some loosely related stocks (BAH, CACI, TDG) that have great long term charts.
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Derf, >> GNRC <<
Fwiw, I picked up a small position today as a longer term turnaround, and also some NEE. Tiny positions though.
With your $100 K positions, you must have $ millions to work with. But with so much $ you have the luxury to be conservative, so really no need to take many chances, other than for the excitement. I have to be more cautious, so am not a trader. The most risk I take these days is with these turnaround stocks, but only have a few (HSY, GNRC, NEE) and just small positions with the idea of long term buy / hold.
Trimble I put on the watch list since Al Gore's investment group reportedly bought some last Fall. Not sure about their track record though, and back in the day Gore was known as 'Goofy Al', so not exactly a ringing endorsement. But I figure getting the ESG stamp of approval is going to be increasingly important over time, and institutional investors will avoid stocks with low ESG ratings. I also look at Bill Gates' portfolio for ideas (RSG, WM).
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I'm going to say....
I probably should dump my GNRC and replace it with WSO. I'm up about 6% in GNRC and it just hasn't seemed to run like I thought it would due to electric cars.
I'd say no to TRMB. Looks like it just had its pop to resistance.
Not sure how I missed DHR as I believe I posted about it a month ago to add.....but didn't. (maybe waiting on a pullback?)
Not sure why I'm waiting to add to PHO?
I've bought about $70k of RTX. Now I have to wait to add the additional $30k on a pullback.
Trimble - >>> 2 Buys and 1 Sell From Al Gore's Investment Company
Motley Fool
By Lee Samaha
Dec 14, 2023
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/14/2-buys-and-1-sell-from-al-gores-investment-company/
KEY POINTS
The manufacturing sector is adopting digital technology at a fast rate.
This company's technology is becoming an increasingly important part of its customers' workflows.
Bioprocessing, life sciences, and diagnostics are excellent long-term markets, but COVID-19 has distorted this company's near-term earnings trajectory.
An industrial software company, a positioning and workflow company, and a leading life science, bioprocessing, and diagnostics company make up a list of stocks traded by Generation Investment Management.
Al Gore co-founded Generation Investment Management in London to invest in "sustainable capitalism." You do not have to share his politics or penchant for ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investing to take an interest in what stocks the company is holding. So here's a look at three stocks that Generation traded in the third quarter.
PTC is digitalizing the industrial sector
Given that these trades were made in the third quarter, it appears that Generation was premature in closing out its position in industrial software company PTC (PTC).
While any company that sells into the industrial and manufacturing sectors will be subject to some cyclical weakness (manufacturing conditions did deteriorate in the U.S. in 2023), the reality is that PTC has some powerful secular growth drivers behind it. Industrial companies want to transform their business operations digitally by using PTC's software solutions that run from initial design through manufacturing, servicing, and disposal.
PTC's software creates a so-called digital thread of any product its software designs; the benefit of this digital thread is it creates a digital twin of a physical asset at every step of design, production, and operations can be used to iteratively improve every aspect of a product's lifecycle.
These trends proved strong enough to lead PTC to grow its annual run rate, or ARR (the annualized value of its subscriptions and contracts, representing its recurring revenue) at 13% in its fiscal 2023. And management expects ARR to grow at a double-digit rate for at least the next few years.
With ARR being the crucial determinant of free cash flow (FCF), the latter is set to expand significantly in the coming years. As such, I think Generation was wrong to close its position in PTC, and despite the 38.8% rise this year, the stock still looks like a good value.
Trimble improves efficiency and reduces waste
Generation initiated a new position in positioning and workflow technology company Trimble (TRMB 0.10%) in the third quarter by buying $349 million worth of stock at the end of the quarter.
It hasn't been a vintage year for the company. The stock is down 7.2% in 2023. The company has experienced near-term weakness in some end markets, including residential construction, agriculture, and transportation. It slightly took down its full-year revenue and earnings guidance accordingly.
That said, just as with PTC, Trimble has an excellent long-term growth opportunity from adopting game-changing digital technology. In Trimble's case, its highly precise positioning technology can not only position assets (examples include transportation fleets, construction activity, smart farming, etc.) but also create valuable real-time data that can be used to generate actionable insights.
As such, Trimble's hardware, software, and analytics solutions can significantly improve its customers' workflow productivity. And, in a nod to Generation's commitment to the environment, Trimble's technology also helps improve sustainability.
For example, resources (fertilizer, pesticides, water, etc.) can be optimized in farming, more-efficient trucking routes reduce fuel consumption, and precise management of construction projects improves efficiency and reduces waste.
Trimble continues to grow its annualized recurring revenue at a double-digit rate, and just as with PTC, the company is set to improve its FCF generation significantly in the coming years.
Adding Danaher
Generation added about 265,000 shares to its existing holding in Danaher (DHR) and now has slightly more than 3 million shares in the life science and diagnostics company.
Danaher is an attractive company, but the distortive effect of the pandemic on its revenue and earnings sometimes makes it feel like you need a Ph.D. to understand them.
For example, there's Danaher's reported sales growth and its core sales growth (excluding acquisitions/divestitures and foreign currency movements). It also reports "base business core sales growth," which used to exclude revenue related to COVID-related diagnostic testing but, as of the first quarter of 2023, also includes COVID-related vaccines and therapies life science revenue.
In addition, the recent spinoff of its environmental and applied solutions business, Veralto (VLTO), and the recent acquisition of antibodies and life-science tools company Abcam will further complicate matters. Meanwhile, Danaher's bioprocessing and life sciences customers are struggling with funding issues due to rising interest rates.
Frankly, there's a tremendous amount of noise around Danaher's near-term revenue and earnings, and there's a strong argument for avoiding the stock until the dust settles. That said, the company's biotechnology, life sciences, and diagnostics end markets are all desirable, and the company is doubling down on them by spinning off Veralto and buying Abcam.
In addition, while COVID-related revenue is in decline, the pandemic did spur renewed interest and funding for vaccines and therapies (life sciences). Danaher grew its installed base of diagnostics equipment (increasing its potential consumables revenue from selling tests).
Lastly, as CEO Rainer Blair noted on the last earnings call, "Since 2018, underlying demand for biologics has grown at an average annual rate of approximately 10% and is continuing to grow in 2023."
There's little doubt its biotechnology revenue is set for long-term growth. As such, Danaher looks like a good stock for the monitor list while awaiting more clarity on its medium-term outlook.
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>>> Trimble Inc. (TRMB) provides technology solutions that enable professionals and field mobile workers to enhance or transform their work processes worldwide. The company's Buildings and Infrastructure segment offers field and office software for route selection and design; systems to guide and control construction equipment; software for 3D design and data sharing; systems to monitor, track, and manage assets, equipment, and workers; software to share and communicate data; program management solutions for construction owners; 3D conceptual design and modeling software; building information modeling software; enterprise resource planning, project management, and project collaboration solutions; integrated site layout and measurement systems; cost estimating, scheduling, and project controls solutions; and applications for sub-contractors and trades. Its Geospatial segment provides surveying and geospatial products, and geographic information systems. The company's Resources and Utilities segment offers precision agriculture products and services, such as guidance and positioning systems, including autonomous steering systems, automated and variable-rate application and technology systems, and information management solutions; manual and automated navigation guidance for tractors and other farm equipment; solutions to automate application of pesticide and seeding; water solutions; and agricultural software. Its Transportation segment offers solutions for long haul trucking and freight shipper markets; mobility solutions comprising route management, safety and compliance, end-to-end vehicle management, video intelligence, and supply chain communications; and fleet and transportation management systems, analytics, routing, mapping, reporting, and predictive modeling solutions. The company was formerly known as Trimble Navigation Limited and changed its name to Trimble Inc. in October 2016. Trimble Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado.
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>>> What Makes Generac Holdings (GNRC) an Investment Choice?
Insider Monkey
by Soumya Eswaran
Feb 21, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/makes-generac-holdings-gnrc-investment-131705104.html
Polen Capital, an investment management company, released its “Polen U.S. Small Company Growth Strategy” fourth-quarter 2023 investor letter. A copy of the same can be downloaded here. In the fourth quarter, the fund delivered 10.46% gross and 10.22% net of fees compared to a 12.75% return for the Russell 2000 Growth Index. The firm views the performance in many respects as evidence of the stability of its investment approach in the face of frequent and significant market swings. In addition, please check the fund’s top five holdings to know its best picks in 2023.
Polen U.S. Small Company Growth Strategy featured stocks such as Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) in the Q4 2023 investor letter. Headquartered in Waukesha, Wisconsin, Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) is a power generation equipment, energy storage systems, and other power product manufacturer and supplier. On February 20, 2024, Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) stock closed at $114.39 per share. One-month return of Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) was 1.08%, and its shares lost 3.63% of their value over the last 52 weeks. Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) has a market capitalization of $6.879 billion.
Polen U.S. Small Company Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:
"Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) is the leading brand for a wide range of power equipment including standby generators for homes and backup power for commercial and industrial markets. Generac is uniquely positioned due to its scale–it’s the largest manufacturer in the U.S. and has the largest dealer/distributor network with 75% market share in the residential business and elevated market share in commercial/industrial depending on the end market. Generac was previously held in the U.S. SMID strategy prior to exiting the position in 2021 due to concerns around the supply chain and a wider range of potential outcomes given a surge in demand through the pandemic. Since then, earnings have declined as pandemic era pull-forward demand normalized and the valuation is far more attractive. We believe long-term earnings per share (EPS) growth is in the mid to high teens but that EPS will grow significantly faster over the next two years as margins inflect post COVID re-set—something we are already observing in the business fundamentals."
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NextEra Energy - >>> 2 No-Brainer Utility Stocks to Buy With $500 Right Now
by Reuben Brewer
Motley Fool
February 22, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-no-brainer-utility-stocks-102000724.html
Building and maintaining power plants is expensive, which is why utilities often carry a lot of debt. That's been a problem on Wall Street because investors are worried that the swift rise in interest rates will dent utility earnings. Thus, the utility sector has been out of favor. That's great news for long-term investors, even if all you have to invest is $500, because you can buy great companies at reasonable -- if not cheap -- prices.
The list includes utility giant NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) and relatively small Black Hills (NYSE: BKH), which happens to be a Dividend King. Here's what you need to know about these two utility stocks.
NextEra is a 2-in-1 play
The core of NextEra Energy's business is Florida Power & Light, the largest electric utility in the Sunshine State. This has been a very good region in which to operate because of the long-term migration patterns toward warmer climates, which has resulted in an increased customer base. Simply put, more customers means more revenue.
However, the really interesting story here isn't the company's regulated electric utility operations. What sets NextEra apart from its peers is its massive clean energy business, which is among the largest in the world. This has been a long-term growth engine. That shows up most compellingly in the dividend, which has been increased at an annualized rate of 10% for a decade. Half of that rate would be considered very good for a utility. The company expects 10% dividend growth in 2024 and continued solid earnings expansion through at least 2026.
The problem with NextEra is that investors are well aware that its mix of regulated assets and clean energy growth is producing strong results. The shares are usually afforded a premium valuation. But given the rise in interest rates, NextEra's stock has pulled back. The 3.6% dividend yield on offer today is only average for a utility, but it is near the highest levels of the past decade for NextEra Energy. In other words, this strong performer looks like it is on sale.
There's another impressive thing about the $117 billion market cap of NextEra Energy: It has increased its dividend annually for 29 consecutive years.
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Derf, >> bottomfisher <<
I'm not much into these bottom plays either. But if a great long term stock has a substantial drop, I figure the odds are it will recover over time. The 2022 bear market created a lot of those temporary bargains. ZTS was briefly cut it half, but has bounced back and resumed its long term uptrend. TREX was down by 2/3, but has bounced back nice. More recently, HSY dropped by almost 1/3, and should hopefully recover. I normally wouldn't consider CHTR, except that it's a Buffett stock. No plans to buy any though..
Btw, I recently lowered the stock allocation from 30% to 20%. I hadn't intended to keep it that high anyway (30%), so I figure might as well book some profits. Fwiw, I use the S+P 500 (SPY) as the tradable position, and keep the individual stocks as buy/holds, along with some additional S+P 500 (IVV, SPLG). I figure 20% in stocks is enough right now, consider all the geopolitical landmines. Stocks have had a good run, so no sense getting too greedy.
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If you're looking for a contrarian value play, MMM looks like a decent bottom fish play......but I'm no bottomfisher
Can't get much more contrarian than CHTR. That's a serious bottom fish play.
I'd say maybe to C, (I'm heavy into HBAN)
A definite NO to KHC
And KR would be merely for the increasing dividend. I'd say it's trading where it should be right now...maybe a tad too high in fact.
Charter Communications (CHTR) - >>> 4 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Now
Many of the publicly traded stocks held by Berkshire Hathaway are fairly valued or overvalued today, according to Morningstar’s metrics. Here are some of the stocks among its holdings in the latest quarter that looked undervalued as of Feb. 13, 2024.
Charter Communications CHTR
Citigroup C
Kraft Heinz KHC
Kroger KR
Here’s a little bit about why we like each of these stocks at these prices, along with some key metrics for each. All data is as of Feb.
Charter Communications
Morningstar Rating: 5 stars
Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
Morningstar Capital Allocation Rating: Standard
Industry: Telecom Services
Berkshire Hathaway owns about 2.6% of Charter Communications’ stock. The company is the result of a 2016 merger of three cable companies: legacy Charter, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House Networks. We think the company has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to its efficient scale and cost advantage. Charter Communications stock currently trades a whopping 47% below our $550 fair value estimate.
Here’s what Morningstar director Mike Hodel had to say about the stock after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release:
Ugly headline numbers marred Charter’s fourth-quarter results. While we don’t see much reason to change our long-term view of the firm, the next couple of years are shaping up to be more challenging than we had expected. We are trimming our fair value estimate to $550 from $580, but we believe the market has overreacted to current weakness.
Customer metrics were very weak, especially given Charter's emphasis on volumes over price. The firm lost 61,000 net broadband customers during the quarter, far worse than the 105,000 added a year ago and the first loss since the second quarter of 2022. Management didn’t flag any recent changes in the competitive environment. Fixed-wireless customer gains and fixed-line results from AT&T and Verizon were generally consistent with recent performance. Charter also claims that it hasn’t seen an impact on broadband customer losses as Spectrum One bundle discounts expire. We agree with management that small changes in customer wins and losses get undue attention when net customer growth is near zero, but those changes haven’t gone in Charter’s favor recently.
Average revenue per residential broadband customer increased only 2.2% year over year, as Spectrum One bundle discounts are allocated between broadband and wireless revenue. Total revenue per residential customer was roughly flat versus a year ago, with television losses offsetting wireless and broadband gains. Residential revenue was flat year over year and total revenue increased 0.3% on modest business services growth, largely offset by a sharp drop in political ad revenue.
Management provided capital spending expectations through 2027 to shed more light on the firm’s investment plans. Charter expects annual spending in 2024 and 2025 to be above $12 billion, about $1 billion more in total than we had forecast. The firm believes spending will drop sharply in 2027, excluding any additional subsidized project wins, to $8 billion, which we suspect is overly aggressive.
Mike Hodel, Morningstar director
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Derf, Just curious if you see GNRC finally getting some buoyancy? The chart is starting to look interesting, as if the bottom is likely in. But after reading that company insiders are still selling their own shares, and haven't bought any stock for eons, that doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Still, the chart is looking like a bounce to 150 might be coming. Beyond that is tough to say though, since it may just stall out there (150) like it did last summer.
I owned some GNRC during its big 2020-21 runup, but really don't have a good feel for their business, and their margins are lower than I usually like to see (4.7%, 9.8%). Yahoo Finance has the short position at just over 5%, which I guess is not surprising since the stock has been the doghouse for over two years. I see their earnings are due on Wed (article below). Just curious if you see the stock getting back on track? Thanks for any insights / opinions -
>>> Factors to Note Ahead of Generac's (GNRC) Q4 Earnings Release
Zacks Equity Research
February 12, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factors-note-ahead-generacs-gnrc-152200410.html
Generac Holdings Inc GNRC will report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 14.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.10 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 4.6%. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.09 per share, suggesting a 17.4% rise year over year.
GNRC beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average earnings surprise of 7.1%. In the past year, shares of the company have gained 3.8% against the sub-industry’s decline of 44.2%.
Key Factors
Generac’s performance is likely to have benefited from continued strength in the Commercial & Industrial (C&I) product shipments and solid growth in home standby generator shipments. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for C&I products' revenues is pegged at $372 million, implying 12% year-over-year growth.
The company’s Residential Energy Technology Products and Solutions segment is likely to have benefited from solid sales of Ecobee. The company announced that Ecobee smart thermostats can now be integrated with Generac 4G LTE Cellular Propane Tank Monitors to monitor fuel levels in the propane tank from the smart thermostat screen.
Apart from this, the ongoing grid stability concerns and volatile energy markets will drive shipments of natural gas generators used in applications beyond traditional emergency standby projects.
In the quarter under review, the company announced that it had made a minority investment in a leading smart electric vehicle charging and energy management company — Wallbox. The partnership will improve Generac’s distribution capacity in the United States by providing its customers with Wallbox's range of EV charging solutions, which includes L2 AC chargers and its bidirectional charger, Quasar 2.
However, Generac’s performance is likely to have been affected by demand softness in Residential products owing to gradual field inventory levels of home standby generators. Also, portable generator sales are likely to decrease year over year due to elevated year-ago sales, which include the impact of Hurricane Ian. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Residential products' revenues is pegged at $606 million, suggesting a 4.3% plunge year over year.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Generac this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.
Generac has an Earnings ESP of -5.94% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
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Geez! He sure has! Selling them like this is a penny stock!
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1474735.htm
Yeah, I forgot about the tax hassle.
>>> Generac Holdings Inc CEO Aaron Jagdfeld Sells 5,000 Shares
GuruFocus Research
Feb 2, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/generac-holdings-inc-ceo-aaron-020940881.html
Generac Holdings Inc (NYSE:GNRC), a leading designer and manufacturer of power generation equipment and other engine-powered products, has reported an insider sell according to a recent SEC filing. The insider, CEO Aaron Jagdfeld, sold 5,000 shares of the company on February 1, 2024.Aaron Jagdfeld has been actively trading shares over the past year, with a total of 100,207 shares sold and no shares purchased. This latest transaction continues the trend of insider sells for the company.
The insider transaction history for Generac Holdings Inc shows a pattern of insider sales, with 17 insider sells and no insider buys over the past year. On the valuation front, Generac Holdings Inc's shares were trading at $115.22 on the day of the insider's recent sell, resulting in a market cap of $7.134 billion. The price-earnings ratio stands at 45.55, which is above both the industry median of 20.54 and the company's historical median.
The stock's price-to-GF-Value ratio is 0.42, indicating that Generac Holdings Inc is significantly undervalued according to the GF Value, which is set at $273.48. The GF Value is calculated considering historical trading multiples, a GuruFocus adjustment factor based on past returns and growth, and future business performance estimates from Morningstar analysts.
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Derf, >> MMLP <<
I think these energy limited partnerships can be a big hassle at tax time (Form K-1, etc). They can have great yields, but as I understand it, many limited partnerships will have a limited lifespan, and by design they will eventually be wound down and closed, although it varies from LP to LP. I looked at them years ago, but decided to go with the regular pipeline stocks like ENB and TRP. These have phenomenal yields (currently over 7%), but the charts tend to be volatile and lag the broader market. Therefore much of the total return will come from the high dividend, so it's a trade off.
Here's my Energy Sector board (below), which has been neglected, but still might be worth checking out for ideas. In the Ltd Partnership section, I think some of these have been wound down. As I recall, even in an IRA some of the LPs can still cause tax headaches, so best to research in depth before jumping in :o)
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Energy-Sector-Ideas-25494
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I own a bunch of XOM and COP, so probably have enough there.....was thinking, in the past that midstream production is typically a decent place to be so looked some up and found $MMLP which is a midstream ETF. Pretty steady chart and over 6% dividend. However, my 2 minutes is how much effort I've made in reviewing it.
Derf, Yes, HSY definitely isn't the most exiting stock around. Other food and consumer related stocks have similar div yields, like PEP, KO, MCD, PG, MDLZ. But being down by 1/3, I figure HSY may out perform overall as it gradually recovers..
Speaking of dividends, I see Chevron is up to 4%. Not the steadiest chart. but it gives some exposure to the energy sector. And the large pharma stocks are paying nice dividends. For yield it's tough to compete with bonds, but looks like it's time to rotate more into the stock side. Falling % rates should help both stocks and bonds, so it could be a couple good years ahead for investors.
Plenty of landmines though - geopolitical / war, the US election, regional bank problems, the growing debt bomb, BRICS expansion, etc. Like the old saying goes -- 'a bull market climbs a wall of worry'.
Updated dividend stock list -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Dividend-Stocks-28771
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Well ....maybe.
The long term chart looks good, but the one I typically rely on shows $210.04 as its current resistance (looks like it hit $209.63 then fell back this week).
If you're thinking about buying, gotta wait until after 2/16 which is Ex date. I do see they've raised the dividend again which was actually a couple quarters early.
It's a very slow grower, so definitely just a safe play to have in your portfolio. I currently own 362 shares and am up about 15% plus the dividends over the last 2+ years.
In truth, I probably should have sold it yesterday. I was on the golf course and missed it. I don't believe it will hurt me any to hold it. These days I am in search of good dividend payers.
Derf, Nice bounce for Hershey today. Looks like key input costs remain high (cocoa, sugar), but the company sees more room to raise their product prices, and is using all the 'tools in their toolbox' to maintain the business.
Chart-wise, today's move (on big volume) represents a breakout from the bullish inverted head + shoulders bottom that had formed over the last 4-5 months. The MACD trendline has been rising for the last 6 months, even as the stock was basically flat and forming a bottom, so a good TA predictor that the bottom was likely in for this 'turnaround' stock. I figure a re-test of the neckline breakout level (~198) is likely (which is now support), and then (with luck) a gradual recovery can proceed from there :o)
Not sure if Buffett was actually considering acquiring Hershey several years ago, but it would seem to fit with some of his key criteria, including its having a very strong and established brand name -
>>> Hershey Says ‘Historic’ Cocoa Inflation Could Push Prices Higher
Bloomberg
by Deena Shanker
Feb 8, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-says-historic-cocoa-inflation-145226480.html
(Bloomberg) -- Cocoa prices are climbing fast, and Hershey Co. may continue raising prices to keep up.
Prices for the all-important ingredient are reaching “historic” levels, Chief Executive Officer Michele Buck said in the company’s earnings statement Thursday. While the company says its marketing plans, innovation and productivity efforts will help soften the blow, the higher costs are “expected to limit earnings growth this year,” she said.
New York cocoa futures hit a record Thursday morning, after a year that saw prices double as West African growers got hit with extreme weather.
The Reese’s maker said its fourth-quarter confectionery sales in North America increased 2.1%, with prices up but volumes down. It expects net sales to grow 2% to 3% in 2024, mostly driven by higher prices the company has already planned. And prices could go up still more.
Commodities are seeing low-double-digit percentage inflation, Chief Financial Officer Steve Voskuil said on the call with analysts, with cocoa and sugar as the most inflationary. Noncommodity inflation, he said, is much lower, at mid-single digits, putting the average inflation rate for the company at high single digits.
“We can’t talk about future pricing,” Buck said, but added, “given where cocoa prices are, we will be using every tool in our toolbox, including pricing, as a way to manage the business.” If prices do go up, the company will see that benefit in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, she said.
Hershey shares rose as much as 5.5% in New York trading, the most since July 2020. The stock is up 4.2% this year through Wednesday, outpacing the 2.7% gain of the S&P 500 consumer-staples index.
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Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) -- >>> Scandals
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM_(company)
Sherman antitrust violation
In 1920 the US Department of Justice brought suit against the National Linseed Oil Trust for violating the Sherman Antitrust Act. Several co-defendants were named, including the Archer-Daniels Manufacturing Company. The suit alleged all of these companies were acting in collusion to raise prices, citing a spike in linseed oil costs between 1916 and 1918, when the price rose from $.50 per gallon to $1.80.[73]
Price fixing
See also: Lysine price-fixing conspiracy
In 1993, the company was the subject of a lysine price-fixing investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. Senior ADM executives were indicted on criminal charges for engaging in price-fixing within the international lysine market. Three of ADM's top officials, including vice chairman Michael Andreas were eventually sentenced to federal prison in 1999. Moreover, in 1997, the company was fined $100 million, the largest antitrust fine in U.S. history at the time.[74] Mark Whitacre, FBI informant and whistleblower of the lysine price-fixing conspiracy, would also find himself in legal trouble for embezzling money from ADM during his time as an informant for the FBI. In addition, according to ADM's 2005 annual report, a settlement was reached under which ADM paid $400 million in 2005 to settle a class action antitrust suit.[75] The Informant is a nonfiction thriller book based on this event, which was later adapted into the 2009 film The Informant!.[76]
Tax dodging
A noteworthy case of transfer mispricing came to light in 2011 in Argentina involving the world's four largest grain traders: ADM, Bunge, Cargill and LDC. Argentina's revenue and customs service began an investigation into the four companies when prices for agricultural commodities spiked in 2008 and yet very little profit for the four companies had been reported to the office. As a result of the investigation, it was alleged that the companies had submitted false declarations of sales and routed profits through tax havens or through their headquarters. In some cases, they were said to have used phantom firms to buy grain and had inflated costs in Argentina in order to reduce the recorded profits earned in the country.[77] According to the country's revenue and customs service, the outstanding taxes amounted to almost US$1 billion.[78] The companies involved have denied the allegations. To date, the Argentinian tax authorities have not replied to the Swiss NGO Public Eye’s request regarding the current state of the case.[79] In its 2018 annual report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bunge mentioned provisions which suggest that the case is still ongoing: "[A]s of December 31, 2018, Bunge's Argentine subsidiary had received income tax assessments relating to 2006 through 2009 of approximately 1,276 million Argentine pesos (approximately $34 million), plus applicable interest on the outstanding amount of approximately 4,246 million Argentine pesos (approximately $113 million[80])."[81]
Violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act
On December 20, 2013, the SEC announced that it had charged ADM for failing to prevent illicit payments (bribes) made by its foreign subsidiaries to Ukrainian government officials in violation of the FCPA. Alfred C. Toepfer International Ukraine Ltd. (ACTI Ukraine), plead guilty in the Central District of Illinois to one count of conspiracy in violation of the anti-bribery sections of the FCPA. They agreed to pay $17.8 million in fines. The Department of Justice also entered into a non-prosecution agreement with ADM due to the company's failure to implement a system of internal financial controls, addressing improper payments both in Ukraine and by an ADM joint venture in Venezuela. ADM agreed to pay more than $36 million to settle the SEC's charges, bringing the total amount paid to over $54 million.[82][83]
The Swiss NGO Public Eye elaborated the case.[84][85]
Sonny Perdue land sale
In 2021, an investigation by the Washington Post found that ADM had sold land to incoming Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue in 2017 at a fraction of its estimated value. Ethics lawyers had legal and ethical concerns about the sale, questioning whether it amounted to bribery. According to the Post, ADM "sold the land at a small fraction of its estimated value just as it stood to benefit from a friendly secretary of agriculture."[86]
Accounting practices
In January 2024, ADM disclosed that the SEC requested information regarding its accounting practices at its nutrition business on "intersegment transactions." ADM suspended its CFO, postponed its quarterly earnings report and annual filings, and said it was cooperating with the SEC investigation. In 2020, ADM's board agreed to have bonuses of senior executives tied to the nutrition segment's success—a unit which accounts for less than 10 percent of the company's revenue—replacing the standard practice of tying the award to adjusted earnings. In January 2023, its seven top executives collectively received shares worth about $72 million for exceeding those performance metrics.[87][88]
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Not sure if you saw what happened to ADM recently, but what a mega haircut. The chart was looking vulnerable already, having formed a descending triangle in 2022-23, but then the accounting irregularities hit and it was bombs away. I figure it's best to just watch this one unfold since accounting scandals can go on and on, and severely tarnish a company's reputation on Wall Street for years. Nothing like an SEC accounting investigation to put a stock into the long term doghouse, and the class action investor lawsuits should start arriving any day. I'll pass on this one, though at some point it should recover, but might take years? The company is no stranger to scandals (see next post).
>>> Why Archer-Daniels-Midland Stock Plunged 25% This Week <<<
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173719186
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Considering he owns See's candy, I'm not sure he'd want a competitor, or perhaps it would be a money saver?
>>> Is Hershey Warren Buffett's Kind of Business?
Motley Fool
By Brett Schafer
Jun 30, 2021
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/30/is-hershey-warren-buffetts-kind-of-business/
The Oracle of Omaha may be going after the candy giant.
Last week, a report came out that Hershey's (HSY) corporate jet recently flew to Omaha, Nebraska, where Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is headquartered. It's unknown what the jet was doing in Omaha, but analyst Don Bilson of Gordon Hackett's research team speculated that the Oracle of Omaha may be looking to acquire the chocolate company.
Bilson has been right with these reports in the past, predicting Berkshire's financing of Occidental Petroleum's takeover of Anadarko Petroleum after tracking the company's jet back in 2019. What would a Hershey deal mean for Berkshire Hathaway? Let's take a look.
What Hershey owns
Milton Hershey founded the Hershey Chocolate company more than 125 years ago. In 1900, the first Hershey bar was sold, and the company hasn't looked back since.
Hershey's still sells its famous chocolate bars around the globe but has bought and incubated many other candy and snack brands over the years. Its current portfolio includes popular brands like Hershey bars and kisses, Reese's, Twizzlers, and Ice Breakers. It also has new, health-focused brands like Skinny Pop, which have helped the company grow, as well.
The business is as steady as it comes
Chocolate and candy bars may be considered simple or even "boring" by many investors, but Hershey's stock has put up fantastic returns over the long haul. Since 1972, shares have gone up 14,000%, while the S&P 500 has "only" grown 4,000% over that time span. And those returns don't include the consistent dividend Hershey pays out to shareholders, which currently yields 1.84%.
Why has Hershey's stock done so well over the long term? There are many factors, but the main reason is that it has consistently grown its free cash flow. Before 2000, Hershey generated well below $500 million in free cash flow a year. Over the last 12 months, it generated over $1.6 billion in free cash flow. Couple that with the fact Hershey's share count has gone from 360 million in 1992 down to 206 million today, and you can see why the stock has done so well over the decades.
What it could mean for Berkshire Hathaway
Hershey has all the makings of a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary. Buffett already owns junk-food companies like Sees Candies and Dairy Queen, while also owning large chunks of Coca-Cola and McDonald's stock. He loves businesses that are incredibly predictable like candy, which is why investors speculate he would love owning Hershey under the Berkshire umbrella. And while many governments are cracking down and regulating sugar consumption around the world, people will likely be consuming chocolate 50 years from now, just as they did 50 years ago.
On top of being a Buffett-style business, Hershey's may only have one suitor -- Berkshire. The Hershey Trust Company has over 80% of the voting rights of Hershey stock and likely doesn't want a buyer that would interfere with the business operations. Berkshire Hathaway famously has a hands-off approach with its subsidiaries, which could help in negotiations with Hershey shareholders.
One thing Buffett may not like is the price he would have to pay to acquire the Hershey company. The stock currently trades at a market cap of $36 billion, giving it a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) of 22.5. This doesn't look expensive on a trailing basis, but Buffett hates to overpay for a business and would likely need to offer a decent premium to Hershey's current market cap to convince the Hershey Trust to sell.
With over $145 billion in cash on its balance sheet, Berkshire has plenty of ammo to do a Hershey deal. Unless he can get it at a reasonable price, however, Buffett's unlikely to pull the trigger and buy the Hershey company.
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Derf, >> stay away from derivative products and leveraged bond funds <<
Sounds like good advice :o)
One conservative rule for trading is to not buy any stock that you wouldn't mind owning longer term, since you might get stuck with it if the trade goes wrong. That's the appeal of some of these contrarian / turnaround stocks like HSY. HSY is a stock that has been worthy of being a LT buy/hold, but hit problems and lost 1/3 of its value. So I figure there are several ways to play it -
1) Use the weakness to establish a long term buy / hold position
2) Take a trading position in expectation of a near / mid term rebound
3) Some combination of 1 and 2
The chart has firmed and formed a potentially bullish bottoming pattern (quasi inverted head + shoulders), and is now testing the Nov high resistance level. Once through that (assuming it makes it), then a gradual recovery up to the 200 MA area (~217) seems possible.
Anyway, seems like a fairly promising setup for either a trade or to establish a longer term position. The big question is how serious are the negative factors that tanked the stock, and how long for them to be resolved? That's where it gets tough. The chart is relatively easy to analyze, but the company's fundamentals, not so easy. Ideally you need to be a Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch, but few of us have that ability. But there were some rumors several years ago that Buffett might have interest in acquiring Hersey (see next article), and now with the stock way down, who knows? But even without Buffett entering the picture, HSY looks like a lower risk turnaround stock. On the other hand though, that's what I thought about Stericycle in 2016, and it just continued lower. That's why today I mainly stick with the S+P 500, and thus remove the stock specific risks :o)
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BTW, I had posted this on my board. I've been saying, I think Latin America is the place you want to have some money right now...
Geez! Now you're assigning me homework!
Yeah, my Dad was also a strong buy and hold guy.....it took me a lot of years to convince him to hold a little cash and diversify....although I've come to believe in his philosophy about dividends.
FWIW, I convinced him to sell his BRK some years back and replace it with MSFT, GOOG, EMR and a couple others. I've never done the math to determine if I was right, but pretty sure I've outperformed BRK over the years. The only advantage to have held it is, the cost basis would have gone away.
I really believe when Warren dies, there will be an exodus in the stock, in spite of all their efforts to convince people all will continue the same. I'm wondering overall how much performance will be lost without Charlie Munger.
When I first started with my charting, it was the Investor's Business Daily chart books and the CANSLIM method. I used to take my chart books to the ballpark with me and chart between batters. I was lucky to find a very good teacher early on. He warned me to stay away from derivative products and leveraged bond funds.
I'll check your other boards, but you sure are busy.
Derf, >> won't buy any BRK now <<
I also wonder what might happen tax-wise to owners of BRK shares (?) Not sure, but I like to follow Buffett's moves in the market in general, although with the new guys (Weschler, Combs), the smaller positions are likely their picks. With STNE and NU, I didn't stay with those picks due to the uncertainty, but they have been recovering.
As for trading, I'm a lot better at it since learning TA/charts a few years back at Stockcharts.com. I subscribed to the their chart school and videos (Art Hill) for a year and seemed to have an affinity for chart reading, and the investing results have been much improved. But best not to overdo the trading imo. My dad did great in the market by just buying quality and holding long term. The more decisions you have to make, the more chances of being wrong. Still, there's nothing quite like a bullish ascending triangle pattern to get the trading juices flowing, lol..
Btw, I have a Trading Ideas board, and also one for Chart Patterns and TA (links below). Not very active, but let me know when you see some good opportunities :o)
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Chart-Patterns-and-TA-33164
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Trading-Ideas-41401
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Didn't realize BRK owned STNE chunk. I bought it about 5 months ago and am up 45%. The guys who started the company are from Brazil, so it's not like they went to the Caymans to avoid taxes. Grand Cayman is quite the thriving island when they aren't getting hit by hurricanes. Interestingly, you must have an income of $36k (well that was the number when I was there), to live there, so unlike Jamaica, the economy does well....and no taxes. But I digress.
I bought GNRC because I have noted here that with all the electric cars, we are having many more blackouts and it will get worse....at least in the better neighborhoods. Interestingly, for some reason I've noticed the cities almost secretly trying to upgrade the electricity in areas, as they were never built with electric cars in mind. The Infrastructure Bill isn't just a nice thing for the government, it is a necessity. Find more infrastructure stocks!
I bought HSY, HRL, and AA during Covid.( a buddy of mine who is the CEO of a large grocery chain mentioned it to me)...and forgot to sell HSY and HRL. They had big runs....and falls.
Some stocks I hold forever, but I still trade...which is the only reason I waste my time on IHUB looking for smart and real investors vs the penny stock mullets that grace most of the boards here.
Years ago, I had found a great stock picker....so I paid for his membership here so he wouldn't leave. He got into too many fights on the boards though and got booted. That has probably cost me a great deal. The guy was very good.
BTW, I won't buy any BRK now, because I'm convinced if I do, it will kill Warren. So for his good health I stay away.
Derf, With STNE, since it's a Berkshire holding I had a modest position, but didn't hold it very long. I figure these smaller positions are likely picks by the new guys at Berkshire (Weschler, Combs), and STNE is also based in the Cayman Islands, which seems like a red flag. The chart setup does look interesting for a recovery though.
With GNRC, I had a decent position during the big runup in 2020-21, and luckily grabbed the profits and didn't try to get back in.
But instead of active trading, I'm mainly trying to have steady stocks that can be safely held longer term. Buffett says investors need to understand their 'circle of competency', and shorter term stock picking requires a lot more research, knowledge, etc. I'm pretty good with TA / chart reading, and identifying chart setups and patterns, but being able to accurately understand an out of favor company's prospects is a tall order.
HSY is a tough one. It was going great for years and years, and seems like it should get back on track (article link below), But I thought the same about Stericycle / SRCL back in 2016, and it has continued to wallow lower, so I'm leery of turnaround stocks in general.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173679362
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You have some interesting ideas on here. I already own HSY, STNE, GNRC.
RTX looks to be breaking out right now and I think I'll buy some. Nice
>>> Why Archer-Daniels-Midland Stock Plunged 25% This Week
by Steve Symington,
Motley Fool
January 25, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-archer-daniels-midland-stock-234506028.html
Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) are down 25% this week, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, after the commodities trading company announced a new interim CFO amid an ongoing accounting investigation.
On ADM's abrupt CFO departure
In a press release on Sunday, ADM announced it has appointed Ismael Roig as interim CFO, following a decision by ADM's board of directors to place its previous CFO, Vikram Luthar, on administrative leave, effective immediately.
ADM added that Luthar's leave is pending an ongoing investigation by outside counsel for the company regarding "certain accounting practices and procedures [within] ADM's Nutrition reporting segment, including as related to certain intersegment transactions."
ADM initiated the investigation in response to a voluntary disclosure request from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
What's next for ADM investors?
The issue is fast becoming a contentious one; at least one investor has already (perhaps predictably) filed a lawsuit accusing the company of fraud. Various industry watchers have also observed that while ADM's Nutrition segment is responsible for less than 10% of total sales, it also has an outsized influence on the executive team's equity bonus compensation structure.
While the final outcome of the investigation has yet to be determined, ADM management has their work cut out for them in restoring investor trust as long as speculation swirls around the accounting practices in question. Until the public receives more clarity on the issue, it's no surprise to see the stock pulling back in response.
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>>> Hershey (HSY) Down More Than 20% in 6 Months: Here's Why
Zacks Equity Research
January 12, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-hsy-down-more-20-184700374.html
The Hershey Company HSY appears to be in a tight spot thanks to rising expenses. The leading snacks company’s international presence keeps it exposed to risks of unfavorable currency rates. A soft macroeconomic environment is a threat to the company.
Shares of the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have slumped 20.2% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 17.3% decline. The stock has underperformed the Zacks Consumer Staple sector’s 2.8% drop.
Let’s discuss this in detail.
Cost Concerns Stay
Hershey has been grappling with higher selling, marketing and administrative expenses for a while. In the third quarter of 2023, the company’s SG&A expenses rose 13.1% on increased levels of media and capability investments. Selling, marketing and administrative expenses, excluding advertising and related consumer marketing, increased 9.9% due to wage and benefits inflation, capability and technology investments.
Management had highlighted that it expects advertising spending to grow to double-digits in the fourth quarter as it continues to support the sell-through of seasonal items and starts to reactivate the Salty Snacks brands post-ERP transition. The company expects non-advertising SG&A spending to rise in low-single-digits, reflecting some increase in technology and capability investments.
Currency Headwinds
Owing to Hershey’s solid international presence, the company is exposed to unfavorable currency fluctuations. The weakening of foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar may require the company to either raise prices or contract profit margins in locations outside the country. Indeed, the volatility in exchange rates is a concern for the company.
Soft Macroeconomic Environment
Hershey is dependent on the consumer discretionary spending environment, which is affected by general macroeconomic conditions like consumer confidence and employment levels. Hershey recently highlighted that it is seeing customers cutting back on discretionary purchases, looking for deals, shopping at discount channels and buying more petite sizes. The North American food industry is exposed to shifting consumer preferences, changes in consumer dynamics, demographic shifts and a spending shift toward lower-priced products.
Wrapping Up
The company continues to invest in its brands and capabilities to drive growth. Additionally, buyouts have been adding to its portfolio strength. Effective pricing actions have been working for Hershey. However, let’s see if these upsides can help HSY stay afloat amid such hurdles.
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