Contrarian Value Ideas

[gfp927z]

Derf, Nice bounce for Hershey today. Looks like key input costs remain high (cocoa, sugar), but the company sees more room to raise their product prices, and is using all the 'tools in their toolbox' to maintain the business.

Chart-wise, today's move (on big volume) represents a breakout from the bullish inverted head + shoulders bottom that had formed over the last 4-5 months. The MACD trendline has been rising for the last 6 months, even as the stock was basically flat and forming a bottom, so a good TA predictor that the bottom was likely in for this 'turnaround' stock. I figure a re-test of the neckline breakout level (~198) is likely (which is now support), and then (with luck) a gradual recovery can proceed from there :o)

Not sure if Buffett was actually considering acquiring Hershey several years ago, but it would seem to fit with some of his key criteria, including its having a very strong and established brand name -


>>> Hershey Says ‘Historic’ Cocoa Inflation Could Push Prices Higher


Bloomberg

by Deena Shanker

Feb 8, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-says-historic-cocoa-inflation-145226480.html


(Bloomberg) -- Cocoa prices are climbing fast, and Hershey Co. may continue raising prices to keep up.

Prices for the all-important ingredient are reaching “historic” levels, Chief Executive Officer Michele Buck said in the company’s earnings statement Thursday. While the company says its marketing plans, innovation and productivity efforts will help soften the blow, the higher costs are “expected to limit earnings growth this year,” she said.

New York cocoa futures hit a record Thursday morning, after a year that saw prices double as West African growers got hit with extreme weather.

The Reese’s maker said its fourth-quarter confectionery sales in North America increased 2.1%, with prices up but volumes down. It expects net sales to grow 2% to 3% in 2024, mostly driven by higher prices the company has already planned. And prices could go up still more.

Commodities are seeing low-double-digit percentage inflation, Chief Financial Officer Steve Voskuil said on the call with analysts, with cocoa and sugar as the most inflationary. Noncommodity inflation, he said, is much lower, at mid-single digits, putting the average inflation rate for the company at high single digits.

“We can’t talk about future pricing,” Buck said, but added, “given where cocoa prices are, we will be using every tool in our toolbox, including pricing, as a way to manage the business.” If prices do go up, the company will see that benefit in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, she said.

Hershey shares rose as much as 5.5% in New York trading, the most since July 2020. The stock is up 4.2% this year through Wednesday, outpacing the 2.7% gain of the S&P 500 consumer-staples index.

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