Contrarian Value Ideas

[gfp927z]

Derf, With STNE, since it's a Berkshire holding I had a modest position, but didn't hold it very long. I figure these smaller positions are likely picks by the new guys at Berkshire (Weschler, Combs), and STNE is also based in the Cayman Islands, which seems like a red flag. The chart setup does look interesting for a recovery though.

With GNRC, I had a decent position during the big runup in 2020-21, and luckily grabbed the profits and didn't try to get back in.

But instead of active trading, I'm mainly trying to have steady stocks that can be safely held longer term. Buffett says investors need to understand their 'circle of competency', and shorter term stock picking requires a lot more research, knowledge, etc. I'm pretty good with TA / chart reading, and identifying chart setups and patterns, but being able to accurately understand an out of favor company's prospects is a tall order.

HSY is a tough one. It was going great for years and years, and seems like it should get back on track (article link below), But I thought the same about Stericycle / SRCL back in 2016, and it has continued to wallow lower, so I'm leery of turnaround stocks in general.


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