Alternative Path

[gdl]

McCarthy knew he had the votes. I thought there were enough MAGA congressman to stop the bill. Should pass the Senate with revisions.
Market reaction ZERO! Imagine the carnage if it didn't pass. market looking ahead to rate hikes and inflation. Fed promised a pause but street will know if it has legs by the data coming out starting this week.

Trump has 2 likely indictments in early August. Mar-a-Lago and Georgia.

Interesting summer indeed! Crash seems off the table for now. I expect another trillion dollar debacle soon as inflation and rates stay higher than they can tolerate. Banks, housing, ????

[gdl]

Well we find out today, by end of day. I can't believe McCarthy already had the vote. Market goes out of it's way to believe the best possible outcome and at time, like a Pandemic, insanely unreasonably optimistic.

Let the games begin!

[gdl]

My understanding of the GOP is now on the line. Same with the debt Ceiling Package. If McCarthy can get it thru the house I would be very impressed and hopeful the party isn't completely off the rails. Tuesday and Wednesday we find out.

[gdl]

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-personal-spending-quickens-in-april-amid-rise-in-wage-growth-3092173

Not what the doctor ordered is it? Core PCE also higher than expected. Seems the FED promised a halt next time and the market is rising. Bond yields, dollar and stocks. Everyone seems happy for one reason or another even if they do conflict. Debt Ceiling, a done deal it seems. Not likely and when that bubble bursts watch out. Wages spending and the FED sits on it's hands? Inflation is here to stay and it will only get stronger.

As for the illusive deal, all i can say is watch the developments. McCarthy will try to play his own party with a deal that is far from what they wanted. He is likely to announce a deal even wiothout the vote needed to pass in order to pressure them to concede.

We might even have the SPX drive to the 4380 area by Tuesday. That should be the end of rally and a sharp reversal is likely right after.
Here is how i see it. Wednesday the republicans do not have the vote. Thursday it is definitive and a slide starts. If we are already at 4300 a 100 drop is an easy call on Thursday followed by a 150 point drop Friday. Monday we start out optimistic but by late day realize we are bogged down with no deal and slide maybe 200 SPX points. Tuesday the 6th should be the watershed moment. Drops to 3600 on SPX.

Just a hunch based on same scenario i presented all along, no deal/.

[gdl]

the SETUP is so perfect that the very illusive very rare CRASH scenario is here right now! Not saying it happens but the market has set itself up for one. it might actually be a HUGE spike move higher instead. it is nearing a defining fast sharp unexpected move.

The stock market is split with DOW continuing to drop as the Q's regain big momentum. the dollar and bond yields are literally surging signaling what? Either INFLATION and a very strong economy or a catastrophic event that places faith in bonds as low. BUT why the dollar move? tis a puzzlement. Is it a safe haven during default? Strange.

The fact that McCarthy and Biden are pumping up the deal as almost complete and the timing of announcement means that they are orchestrating a rush job bumping towards the deadline of default purposely. They don't want their constituents to balk. I do not believe it will work. I think there are enough Republicans in the camp of maximum destruction.

We should know on June 1st. Buckie up.

[gdl]

Street complacent on debt, Fed mixed on stopping rate hikes, economy is not slowing and jobs, prices, wages, are all near the peak. There is in fact NO SIGN the economy is slowing. Inflation pressure will only INCREASE with this setup and the FED knows this. But the banking implosion and market panic over another hike will give them pause.

While the street is complacent on inflation and default the bond market is not. In fact everything that brought the 1 trillion dollar crisis has been amplified over the debt ceiling. Now imagine what will happen if the negotiations fail, as i expect it will.

AI is the next great trend and it should last for a long time and create huge economic change, mostly displace workers that are white collar and highly educated. A real switch from the prior revolutions. AI is still in it's infancy but technology seems to accelerate when all is on board.

I expect the market to hold up till next Tuesday when they restart talks. Obvious everyone assumes a settlement is on hand. Love the spike in bonds, dollar as wall street pretends it is no big deal. BTW Bitcoin in a breakdown situation right now but still not breaking much beyond a normal reversal in trend. no big moves yet.

[gdl]

The street isn't very worried, the consensus is that Yellen is faking an early default date of June 1st. EVERYONE assumes this is politics as usual.
I have heard from a slew of sources that June 1st is not far off from actual deadline. June 7th is MY target date when she declares default.

The market seems determined to stay calm and oblivious to a real default. We can even stay afloat till June 7th. But frankly after that it seems insane to expect the street to stay calm. I even expect rumors of a deal to spike the market higher for one day till it gets squashed by the Republics refusing any deal.

TIMING timing timing. I am pretty darn sure we get no deal but i have to decide, based on external events, when the street realizes we are defaulting.

[gdl]

TRUMP news will be fast and furious. You know who the furious part is. Georgia indictment already narrowed down to July/August. Documents any day now. I suppose his presidential status will be elevated as sedition, treason, extortion is added to rape. This is America home of the Confederate, Robber Barons, and Tammany Hall politics.

This as a default is looming and any day we will know the fate. Like a pandemic all saw it as a nothing burger. The assumption and complacency is not unfounded since we already had a trillion dollar run on banks with wall street giving a yawn. this is the numbed era. we go thru life in a haze of who cares and give me what I demand. The 30's are so far detached from todays thoughts but I have a sneaking feeling it will come back like a sledgehammer. OR we just vaporize into the mist as the world gets bombed and there is no where to hide, not even the wealthy ones.

[gdl]

Looking at the charts and while this is the 4th day down in the past we had a spike move higher on the 5th day. Not sure what would cause it other than an assumption the ceiling will be lifted. My guess is that McCarthy will make a public announcement of a temporary deal trying to force his members to agree. I sure hope that's the case. it would cause such a huge swing and emotional extremes that no one will want to guess the next move.

Getting real close to the deadline. In either case i DO NOT believe we get a deal even if the street is convinced. Call me stubborn but I think I know the players by now. I am astonished most do not.

[gdl]

SEVEN trading days till June 1. Street as expected starting to get a little nervous over the Debt Ceiling. Now we see if McCarthy can convince his party to go along with a deal, any deal. I believed all along he would NOT be able to with the need for his crazies to stop destroying everything.

I hope there is enough news to convince that a deal is near. That would provide the dramatic backdrop for a crash as their hopes gets dashed by the Trumpets going on TV and announcing their thumbs down.

Perhaps I have a vivid imagination. 4150 has been the flat line area we have hovered at for a long time now.

[gdl]

The GOP hopefuls smell blood in the waters. They actually think they have a shot. ONLY an imprisoned trump will someone else take the top spot. Not likely given the timeframe. Imagine Pence deciding to give his slim to none path as next president over his duty to uphold the constitution. He alone could have condemned TRUMP regardless of the personal cost. But the Republicans to a person look to greed and power over doing the decent necessary thing. As a result of their personal selfish path we are doomed as a nation. The voters are not stupid and can easily see thru the lies if they choose to. they do not! That is why this nation has lost any hope of surviving.

the odds of a world wide catastrophe has shot up to well over 75%. I see no way we can resolve this mess. The debt ceiling is a main focus for me. it solidifies my understanding of the future path. If we do resolve the debt without a default my assumptions can be viewed as extreme. if we don't it makes my path a solid assumption.

[gdl]

5/23, 7 more trading days to go and the market is still flat! The huge consensus is that a deal is assured. It smacks against the last 8 years of GOP destructive behavior. We are a stupid species and i keep reiterating this with situations that should have elicited a different response. I was told that my stubborn insistence on the political and economic path we are headed for portrays me as a man that wants to display my superior intelligence. If that were true i wouldn't be posting my huge losses in the market. What I know on the path of the pair has been mostly correct but not in a betting environment. there are huge periods of misses but the trend remains the same for 8 years now.

I stated that when the peak in both occur it would be in sync for a huge crash. I have thought that occurred in the past but the horrors and events keep unfolding in a more destructive manner to the point where a dictator is running for the powerful party dominance as they captured the huge propaganda machines, supreme court, federal judges, state officials. In other words things keep getting worse. It boggles my mind to think we can actually keep going in this direction but we have and still do.

My assumption almost a decade ago is unfolding in a more graphic more destructive way. i must assume my end game is correct. End of all things we considered dear and possibly our very lives. the destructive nature can't just be obvious to me. i hold no special powers.

[gdl]

https://www.rickackerman.com/2023/05/esm23-june-e-mini-sp-last42201-25/

The chart and extremely bigoted discussion on the state of affairs on Wall Street and in politics. Just remember this guy's proprietary momentum charts has nothing to do with his prosomal TRUMPISM.

[gdl]

Everyone assumes this is theater, a show to placate both sides with phony cuts. We shall soon see. Or rather we shall wait till the 11th hour as the street has no appetitive for drama nor do they even think this will actually end in a default. The market tips it's hand as it is likely to result in a very late date in May where a no deal will start the concern on wall street or a more likely scenario will fool all. That scenario will first report a deal and later as McCarthy brings it to the floor they balk and refuse to sign on.

So I suspect we either struggle along till mid week of NEXT at the 11th hour truly expecting a deal -or- this week we get some sort of deal that falls apart next week.

One scenario keeps pressure on prices while the other allows for a short spike move higher followed by a trolling over into a crash setting.
But one thing seems the same, the drama is going to keep the market flat or higher till the 11th hour.

[gdl]

I hope I am wrong on the outcome of a default. It means my future analysis can be flawed. I want it to be flawed. i do not want a world ending event. Who would? We have 8 trading days to see if a default is very likely or just another political ploy. I am right on the absurdity of trumps popularity. It makes no logical sense and in fact the mans actions are disgusting immoral and selfish. All I have to do is present the actual facts that we already know without the FBI or any hidden results. he displays his character in the open and the masses approve.

THATS how i know my analysis on the future is more logical than any other path we can take. I already proved it. One with the Pandemic. How the street ignored it is beyond comprehension. Same with the GOP and what they have become. It's like i see thru some special glasses and all others see what they want to see.

In any event the political front is scary as hell while the economic front is not as straight forward. Self destructive natire on this one event, the debt ceiling, will result is an economic calamity matching the political one.

[gdl]

Using Fibonacci ratios we come to an interesting conclusion. The 61.8% rally off of the lows comes to around 4340 on SPX. 50% retrace is 4196 the place that it is right now. the momentum proprietary system has a top at 4382 and a possible bottom at 3424.

IF we actually have a resolution to the debt ceiling, odds that are slim in my estimation, we can easily hit the range between 4340 and 4382.
if we do not the immediate response should come in between 3600 and 3424.

The street is exceedingly bullish with very small concerns right now as it stays near its recent highs. Like the fed rate hikes they will only get worried if they stop seeing a rate cut this year. Same with default. If they actually wake up to the realization we default the market will be quick to react.

That's why I see an immediate move one way or the other depending on outcome of debt deadline. Even the deadline is in dispute but most likely early in JUNE!

[gdl]

*** The New World Order ***
A frightening scenario that has a good chance of coming true.
1 - GOP decides to default on Debt long enough to be assured they win the presidential election.
2 - Multiple indictments and court trial dates set. Some might actually start before the election is determined
3 - Trump wins.
4 - Trials (all) set on hold till he leaves office.
5 - Trump will not leave office. He will most likely attempt and succeed in starting a war. he will disband from NATO and all Allies.
6 - if a nuclear war isn't started he will set us up for one. if he succeeds all lose. if he doesn't his own party will decide if they throw him out.
7 - total chaos in the economy and republic. Will be plunge into domestic depression and splintering of states.
8 - World depression, trade wars and eventual nuclear war.

The domino affect after a GOP default is likely to follow the rest of the steps. If we do not default the odds of rest following suit is diminished greatly.

ALL depends on what happens between now and sometime in July. This is our most dangerous moment in history. This one simple act can set off what i would consider an obvious devastation. I can not emphasis enough just how critical this one external event can change the world forever.

[gdl]

We Are SO SO SO Close to a deep drop. Like a pandemic overseas all think it is a done deal we settle the debt dispute. I cringe at the amount of one sided thinking and dismissal of common sense. Since when has this GOP done anything that suggests TRUMP and sedition is not acceptable? if that is the case why would they ever agree on an extension of debt ceiling. I mean foes that make sense? All of a sudden be rational and concerned for the well being of their constituents? Perhaps had the blame been equal they would have already made a deal. Only a 10% change in blame would make it a guarantee the GOP default. AND that is what we have, a GOP win in the WH after a default.

The same voters 8 years ago see everything they did then regardless of the mountains of hard provable evidence to the contrary. they don't want to see and refuse to see. Just like a Pandemic. the people that deal with the stock market daily see. Boy do they see BUT (ONLY) at the time of the default, not a moment sooner.

Between Monday and the latest Friday the 26th this market will be shaken up and perhaps still cling to the notion that a default is unthinkable. LOVIN IT! I could be wrong on timing and once again it might actually extend even further but lordi don't know how.

[gdl]

CNN TOWN HALL with TRUMP. It solidified a strong notion that what trump displays as degrading humiliating dishonest and corrupt the audience, even woman, want to be able to do the same thing. they want what trump has, absolute power to do and say anything as a God and be treated with complete loyalty in the hopes they too can attain such freedom. many have used his example to do just that, wield their disdain in the same fashion with startlingly positive results. Think about it for a moment. Trump raped a woman and her testimony along with 2 other woman she confided in was believed in record time. It Changed Nothing!

The press is afraid or embarrassed to make the simple conclusion that his base just don't care what he does or how he behaves, even rape, sedition, extortion, selling secrets, etc... He is the person they most want to follow. He is the person they want to be. He is everyone's inner struggle to keep at bay the demons and with trump they realize they don't have to any longer. there is no ramification for giving in. In fact it is a relief to shout out your fears, anger, paranoia and to act on them.

A truer more prominent anti-Christ there never will be. he is LOVED and the more he proved his power and hedonistic tendencies were rewarded the more they want to follow in his footsteps. We the ones that realized just who he was refused to accept it for a long time and struggled with the ramifications of accusing a GOD that he is no better than a snake. It is NOW TOO LATE. He will be our next president on one condition, a default on debt. EVERYONE KNOWS THIS, especially the GOP.

[gdl]

5/15, Monday and we struggle to hold positive but so far it is. Wonder if the last 5 months streak gets extended. We should know by close today.
The Debt ceiling problem has been reviewed and determined not to affect stocks till the actual deadline is days away. Determining that deadline is tricky.

[gdl]

Have a working theory using the DOW. Pattern has been seen that points to a monthly reversal and on the 12th of each month for several months in a row now. 12/12 we had a decent reversal, 1/12 another, 2/12 yet another. 3/12 and 4/12 were also sharp reversal points. Each time the 12th of the month signaled the last directional move before a major reversal. I can assume that tomorrow we see a drop that is the last major drop before some sort of recovery that lasts maybe to 6/12? That would require either a resolution to the debt crisis or a pushback till the 12th.

Lets see if this pattern hold true going forward.

[gdl]

CNN is taking over the FOX Propaganda and the direction it takes will determine the next president. HAIL TRUMP!

https://slate.com/business/2023/05/trump-cnn-town-hall-kaitlan-collins-new-hampshire-disaster.html

[gdl]

Market should hold up till Wednesday when the CPI comes out. i suspect it is once again higher than anticipated. if not we rally or at least don't drop much. Why not make MAY the rally month since everything is upside down. Poll shows TRUMP leading, like Supreme Court Thomas favorability rising as his financial disclosures get more intense.

We live in insane time and i don't need anyone to tell me otherwise.

[gdl]

Inflation, CPI/PPI. Bank Failures: To be continued. Debt Ceiling: quickly approaching no deal.

Three things to look forward to this week. All this while TRUMPS troubles are multiplying at a past and furious pace. Who said these events don't coincide?

[gdl]

Replay of Sodom and Gomorrah. Decadence so outrageous, hedonistic debasement in a boastful last stage burst. Trump, GOP, State governorship, Supreme Court, and massive propaganda machines not even needing to explain their contradictory nonsense. Exposed lies becomes rallying cries justifying their original bigotry and distrust. The nation never cared about facts, moral obligations, or corruption. They want to BLAME others and keep the HATE burning bright.

I am sure those in the two cities didn't see what was about to happen. they were absorbed in the moment and as long as they were happy with the results they never cared about consequences. An addict only knows they need a fix on a regular basis even if that regularity increases.

In both the economy and politics it reflects our own desires and moral conduct. We have given over completely and willingly to the devil as his promises are being met with an almost orgasmic release of emotions.

This 5/5/2023. I am standing in the middle of a firestorm realizing all around me those in that storm are swept around faster and faster in a whirlwind and they have the perspective of viewing everything around them as normal. They don't see the vortex because they are a part of it and everything within is stable to them. fascinating perspective.

SURELY at some point soon this vortex will eventually break apart and when that does all things within will be thrown out at an extraordinary speed. In MAY? or JUNE? I see the possible event that breaks it apart. Will a default happen? Based on my 8 year knowledge of the GOP it should be an easy call. I have been wrong so many times guessing when this breaks apart so i dare say i am not 100 percent certain.

[gdl]

Get this, the street interpreted Powell to indicate a shift in policy is here. this after Powell reiterated THERE IS A LONG WAY TO GO before inflation is tamed. I see stronger than expected economic data with productivity PLUNGING and Costs exploding this last quarter. Sure sounds like a great earnings future to me. As for BANKS well I do believe I was a bit mystified shaking my head that a trillion dollar debacle exposed a few weeks ago was all there was. Man are people stupid. It will actually get a whole lot worse even if fed rates stay where they are for the next 3 months. Immediate emergency relief is needed but the FED can't accommodate. TRAIN WRECK DEAD AHEAD!

As for the Debt Limit the street will assume for a little while anyway that it is posturing and will get done the last minute. Tick... tick.... Not going to happen (IMO).

So far the market assumes a normal retrace from last wave up and a MAY month weakness. How we get done with MAY without crashing is my dilemma.

[gdl]

Debt Ceiling process: May 16th is the earliest the Democrats can try to toss a Hail Mary legislation. Requires Republicans to sign on. THEN it takes a minimum of 7 days for the next process before the bill can be signed by Biden.

It should be SHOT DOWN on or soon after May 16th. That is MY drop dead date the street starts panicking over the default possibility.

[gdl]

Rolling rolling rolling, keep those wagons rolling. The banking issue surprised everyone? Gee, after a one day non-event of a trillion dollars? Shocking. Shocking this market is Obtuse. But the real reason is this:
1 - Debt Ceiling default countdown.
2 - Quarterly non-farm productivity PLUNGED down 2.7%
3 - Unit labor Costs for Quarter SURGED to 6.3%

That and labor being so tight there is NO WAY Inflation pressures ease. NO WAY!

The 40 years of disinflation bets will destroy every single asset class. Street is begging for a rate cut this year.

[gdl]

Death cross in Russell 2000, JP Morgan warning 3500 on SPX by early Summer. Gee, the market is that overvalued for that long? Takes that kind of move to wake the players up. BUT I am still NOT seeing a fast capitulation situation developing yet. Maybe on May 3rd? I saw the roll over ion April 4th. Yup 3 weeks before the rest of market acknowledges it is about right. the street is always reluctant to see bad news ahead.

[gdl]

*** April 4th Pledge of prolong over seems right. NOW making an even bolder pledge. CRASH is inevitable and this year. ***

If Inflation and rate hikes doesn't immediately work towards a CRASH the refusal to pass a Debt Limit Bill will. An absolute no-brainer. GOP is already all in with dictatorship. They know there is NO downside to a CRASH before the presidential election. June on is the default. They will allow a default and crash before stepping in.

It is the ONLY WAY they can gain back the presidency. they are desperate treasonous creatures and doing this is an easy choice. IF THEY CONCLUDED it benefits their chances. And it does!

[gdl]

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-500-slumps-as-underwhelming-quarterly-results-rattle-sentiment-3064141

I told everyone the odds of a rollover was exceedingly strong and gave all the reasons we see today. The ONLY saving grace is the BITCOIN is NOT dropping any further (YET). That is the speculative play and if there is money for that then the street i NOT ready for a crash (yet).

[gdl]

Next week we are dominated by the Big Boys earnings. FAANG. These giants carry the rest of the market. This should keep the party going for another week. I do not expect much of a drop and am left in limbo on how high the market can go. While i firmly believe we are rolling over the market might have other ideas.

[gdl]

We are indeed heading for a train wreck. All i have to do is look at the political landscape and collude the wreck is going to be seen in slow motion with all the gory details. Lawyers for Trump getting lawyers to defend themselves, multiple crimes still being uncovered, Georgia indictment about to be announced as we learned 10 of the fake electors had representation that never mentioned immunity was on the table. Woops. This as the sign off for Mar-a-Lago documents being turned over was false and lawyers blamed other lawyers for this and now they are under investigation. Ron DeSantis trying to outdo TRUMP with his meanness and stupidity. Actually going after BUSINESS because they don't agree with his personal view. A real Repuk think to do? you know dictate to business how to run it. But that didn't stop the MAGA house repuks that are still going after NY DA, the same individuals that seeked PARDONS from TRUMP. What a world as the system is collapsing on it's weight. I expect once Georgia tries to convene a Grand Jury over trumps extortion they will FIRE HER!

Yes folks this is Putin country and his Politburo is supporting dictatorial control. This as the Supreme Court is laughed out of this country. A man that had his wife try to overthrow this election and he decided to rule on it himself. A man that was bought for decades by a billionaire and boldly proclaims it is none of our business. The DEMS sit back and are relying on the American People to throw the Rupuks out. they view all things thru political wins just like the REPUKS. GUTLESS COWARDS refusing to put their own JOBS ON THE LINE! Open season for killing Blacks, Jews and Queers. State law makes it easy to do.

And as for the economy well lets just say when greed and 40 years of a mindset throws away One trillion dollars the street responded with a rally.

As the world turns....................

[gdl]

FOX will stay the course regardless. 787 Million settled with Dominion but another for 2 Billion twice the Dominions claim should also be settled soon. the FOX Board based on liability and huge insurance premiums might put a fight to control this mess. As for the market I think I have a pattern from the DOW that should run in sync with the other indices. I see MAY 12th as the next low and it should be a deeper drop than the last 3.
I also assume the last 5 trading days leading to the low will do the most damage.

[gdl]

"Chinese data on retail sales, industrial output and gross domestic product are due on Tuesday, and analysts suspect the risks are for an upside surprise given recent strength in trade. Figures out over the weekend showed new home prices climbing at the fastest pace in 21 months, supporting consumer demand and confidence."

This will of course always be viewed as a positive till it reflects why inflation is moving higher.

[gdl]

Timing is everything! Trumps own lawyer recusing himself as he was witness to trumps crimes, Uncle Tom stupreme court judge mired in more exposure to his own crimes, and the GOP going full in for Trump plowing thru their own lies in order to maintain trump supporters.

result: no change. Same people love and support the GOP, NRA, Trump.

This as the Stock Market also accepts the most outrageous assumptions to maintain full commitment to owning stocks despite the deterioration of earnings, gross margins and economic stability.

Is this the first 5 weeks of a Pandemic? I mean not a living soul, economist, wall street analyst went on TV to declare the Sky is Falling even though they must have known? I mean come on folks, wake up! A trillion dollar gone overnight and the street is actually rewarding the banks with prospects for great earnings? A spike in short term rates unprecedented in modern era and the street give a thumbs up. Not even dismal 6 quarters in a row of missed earnings and no prospect for a better glorious turnaround.

WELCOME TO THE TWILIGHT ZONE! and everyone called me crazy all these years PREDICTING THIS!

[gdl]

Not ready to roll. Next 2 weeks there should also be no ability to form any traction either. Earnings is not going to be good no matter how the street portrayed it

Hoped the target for both bitcoin and SPX would be a dramatic reversal. Not happening. Between signs of economic slowdown earnings and resilience on inflation front I also can’t see April ending above those targets. They are only a few points higher but still believe the top is in.

[gdl]

Not ready to roll. Next 2 weeks there should also be no ability to form any traction either. Earnings is not going to be good no matter how the street portrayed it

Hoped the target for both bitcoin and SPX would be a dramatic reversal. Not happening. Between signs of economic slowdown earnings and resilience on inflation front I also can’t see April ending above those targets. They are only a few points higher but still believe the top is in.

[gdl]

Best guess we close over 55 SPX points lower. But hey I always push the drops early

[gdl]

Rolling rolling keep those trains a rolling. Bullish technical indeed! I knew we were falling by your giddy projections yesterday. Here we go. Will April hold ? Odds are the market still only sees great things ahead keeping it relatively afloat. Headlines great bank earnings. Got to be kidding

[gdl]

Now rolling over what a surprise. At start of bank earning. Who would have guessed Common Sense once again. Oh yeah the whole quarterly earnings season starts and with it bad earnings and most likely even worse projections.

BTW anyone keeping track of China? They will cause inflation headaches at the worse possible times. If I didn’t know better I would swear they are doing it on purpose.

[gdl]

Bitcoin hit 30850. My target 30872. Breakout or down. SP500 in same situation. All are downright giddy for a breakout. Me I see a dramatic failure to be seen immediately. Not sure when we crash but we should start the slide tomorrow.

[gdl]

Bitcoin hit 30850. My target 30872. Breakout or down. SP500 in same situation. All are downright giddy for a breakout. Me I see a dramatic failure to be seen immediately. Not sure when we crash but we should start the slide tomorrow.

[gdl]

Former President Donald Trump told Fox News host Tucker Carlson that he asked a five-year-old about the best way to evacuate US assets from Afghanistan in an interview aired on the television network on Tuesday evening.

Mr Trump spoke at length about the US’ evacuation from Afghanistan during the interview, in which he also claimed that the US left a number of dogs — “mostly German Shepherds” — behind in the country.

“They left the dogs — you know the dog lovers, and there are a lot of them, I love dogs, you love dogs, but they left the dogs. One of the first questions I got: ‘What did they do with the dogs?’ Mostly German Shepherds,” Mr Trump said. “They left them.”

Mr Trump said the US should not have abandoned a range of expensive military equipment in the country during the course of its evacuation — and that the five-year-old he asked about the evacuation process ordered by President Joe Biden agreed him with him.

HAIL TO THE CHIEF! And 40 plus percent of all voters, 70% in the RED STATES seem to love him. may god help us.
=============================================================================================================

And now to the market. Bitcoin seems poised to hit that magic number 30.872 as it already hit 30,300. Got to be tomorrow with the CPI is my best guess. Will it SURGE right past? SP500 is also at a monumental point. It either stalled already or will break out also. 8:30 AM tomorrow we get a clue.

[gdl]

Reasons for a longer continued rally. Same as why a one trillion dollar banking mess turned into a rally. Same reason why a Pandemic for over a month turned into complacency and stayed near the highs. Same reason transitory inflation was preferred. Same reason why the argument of debt has been dismissed since 40 years went by with ever increased debt against any and all measures. Why disinflation is ingrained in our mindset. Why a twice impeached, 4 time indicted president (to be determined) is front runner for president again.

We live in absolutely INSANE TIMES! Hundreds of books and TV shows will be based on this lunacy. In the next generation they will all believe it was embellished to attract more viewers. They will not believe any US citizen would actually cheer this stuff on. This as i just saw Trump tweet a baseball bat in hand swinging at the Judge overseeing his first indictment of 4.

ONLY in America can we gladly demand our freedoms be abolished if it means getting rid of non-white male Christian values from non-progressive states where mingling with the "other" is unheard of. They actually watched their own PARTY attack Trump on January 6th and take it back by allowing them to kiss his ring and declare fealty.

[gdl]

Venting venting. Still looking for Bitcoin to hit almost exactly 30,870. it is stuck in a n extremely tight range at 28,000.
I HOPE they are my TELL, my warning for an immediate drop after. Perhaps we get in in April? Seems likely but I am frankly still wondering how a trillion dollar crisis was bullish.

[gdl]

I have changed my mind on wanting total destruction and collapse of AMERICA. We need a complete antihalation in order to start over. Like Rome's thousand year reign. TRUMP has made it permissible and even profitable to proclaim racism as a much needed solution. There is ZERO consequences and in fact extremely profitable. Ask the GOP, ask the Tennessee lawmakers that just expelled 2 of 3 democrats for being black men.

Once the GOP control all branches (almost there) they will push the White 1950's agenda and make sure it gest completed. The outward boasting of being a bigot is as prevalent as gays being allowed to marry. All aspects of our lives are no longer hidden and encouraged to be expressed. HATE VIOLENCE BIGOTRY is now a badge of honor to be cherished and encouraged. Tennessee did the right thing. they got rid of the Black uppity man that thought they were equals.

MAY TRUMP REIGN SUPREME! MAY WHITES (Christians only) RULE WITH RELIGIOUS Fervor on the steps of the Capital. We need more Clarence Thomas Judges! Uncle Tom willing to pretend he is white and deserve the privilege's it bestows.

[gdl]

Any rally in April has to happen over next TWO trading day. Reality will strike again once the economic data comes out starting Wednesday and then we have the Regional Banks reporting their quarterly earnings starting Friday. Like the atrocities by Trump and the insane defenders this market is no different. it will obviously take real hard proof on where we are headed and have to pound it home multiple times. The problem is never seeing the path we are headed for it is seeing when and what will finally wake this market up. Perhaps they never get woken up? If TRUMP is any guide after all the FACTS and disgusting behavior of trump defending these charges we still have the same die hard hate mongers unwilling or unable to condemn Trump.

Maybe the earnings picture will turn all deep red and the stock market will still stay at these levels. maybe it no longer matters what is real and not.
I can't get in the heads of so many fanatics. Like praising Hitler after the war is over and declaring it was unjust how he was treated.

[gdl]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591412-the-fed-loses-money-for-the-first-time-in-107-years-why-it-matters

Another milestone! This as the violent overthrow of our Republic is alive and well. the radical meanness of the REPUKS is everywhere nd emboldened by TRUMP. From demands of the REPUK House to get involved in Hush money prosecution to thawing out Tennessee Democrats for protesting lack of Gun control. I can't wait till Georgia TRIES to indict trump. i expect that DA will be dismissed.

We are a speeding train about to hit a steep curve.

[gdl]

January 13th - First Covid case outside China in Thailand. It took almost 2 months for the Health organization to declare it a pandemic. It took a week after that to start the slide. That's over 2 months from time it was known to the world.

SVB run on March 10th. This should NOT be much longer than the Pandemic timeline. May 10th on we should start the big slide IMO. In between we have quarterly earnings and Regional banks start on April 14 thru 20th with the biggest UBS bank delaying till the 25th. Maybe a FIVE DAY DELAY after their announcement like the Pandemic? May 2nd on?