Alternative Path

[gdl]

The street isn't very worried, the consensus is that Yellen is faking an early default date of June 1st. EVERYONE assumes this is politics as usual.
I have heard from a slew of sources that June 1st is not far off from actual deadline. June 7th is MY target date when she declares default.

The market seems determined to stay calm and oblivious to a real default. We can even stay afloat till June 7th. But frankly after that it seems insane to expect the street to stay calm. I even expect rumors of a deal to spike the market higher for one day till it gets squashed by the Republics refusing any deal.

TIMING timing timing. I am pretty darn sure we get no deal but i have to decide, based on external events, when the street realizes we are defaulting.