Alternative Path

[gdl]

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-personal-spending-quickens-in-april-amid-rise-in-wage-growth-3092173

Not what the doctor ordered is it? Core PCE also higher than expected. Seems the FED promised a halt next time and the market is rising. Bond yields, dollar and stocks. Everyone seems happy for one reason or another even if they do conflict. Debt Ceiling, a done deal it seems. Not likely and when that bubble bursts watch out. Wages spending and the FED sits on it's hands? Inflation is here to stay and it will only get stronger.

As for the illusive deal, all i can say is watch the developments. McCarthy will try to play his own party with a deal that is far from what they wanted. He is likely to announce a deal even wiothout the vote needed to pass in order to pressure them to concede.

We might even have the SPX drive to the 4380 area by Tuesday. That should be the end of rally and a sharp reversal is likely right after.
Here is how i see it. Wednesday the republicans do not have the vote. Thursday it is definitive and a slide starts. If we are already at 4300 a 100 drop is an easy call on Thursday followed by a 150 point drop Friday. Monday we start out optimistic but by late day realize we are bogged down with no deal and slide maybe 200 SPX points. Tuesday the 6th should be the watershed moment. Drops to 3600 on SPX.

Just a hunch based on same scenario i presented all along, no deal/.