Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hey Shank. How'd you come across WSTI? Saw you post over there.
Haven't traded in awhile but I picked some PURE up today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PURE&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p29800208719
Popped by to say hi board marked!
ECSL COULD MAKE IT TO THE BIG BOARDS.
awesome stock... patience.
ECSL had a sell off, should move back up tomorrow from .50. News and it could hit $1.00 or more!
Will this stock ever pull back? What a monster!
GV Chart Cup and Handle??? Thoughts??? Should I buy???
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GV&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t34436185359&r=1340986954539
Market reaction: Affordable Care Act
Thursday, June 28, 2012, the United States joined the rest of the civilized world in offering universal health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. In a landmark decision, the Supreme Court ruled on the Constitutionality of the mandate.
Democrats weere largely elated. “Millions of Americans are already seeing the benefits of this law,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nv., pointing to seniors saving money on prescriptions and the ban on denying coverage to those with pre-existing conditions.
“Soon, virtually every man, woman and child in America will have access to health insurance they can afford and the vital care they need,” he said in a speech on the Senate floor.
He described passage of the act as “the greatest single step in generations toward ensuring access to affordable, quality healthcare for every American — regardless of where they live or how much money they make.”
Republicans shore up ranks
Less than an hour after the Supreme Court largely upheld the federal health care law, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell pledged to repeal the legislation.
In a speech on the Senate floor, McConnell said the court's 5-4 decision "doesn't mark the end of the debate. It marks a fresh start on the road to repeal."
The Kentucky Republican used the court's argument that the mandate to buy health insurance is a tax as fodder to repeal the controversial law.
"They knew that it would never have passed if they said it was a tax," McConnell said of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. "The bill was sold to the American people on a deception."
The following morning, the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Index was up, as were also the utilities and the transports. So was the SPX. the Amex, and the Nasdaq composite.
Preserved here for posterity is the mid-morning reaction of the markets of the following day.
http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/HC%20PDF.pdf
I bought puts on SMBL when it looked weak at 7.00. Needless to say it brushed off my assumptions and left me with worthless contracts. Luckily I only tossed loose cash on the bet. lol
I think it might be ready for a put play now though. Thanks for posting the chart!
ALSK - Alaska Communications Systems - $2.09
Nasdaq-GS. IPO Nov 1999; 10,000,000 shares at $14, by Goldman, Sachs & Co. No splits on record.
Market Value $116,900, Shares Outstanding 45,486,445 a/o Apr 18, 2012. Institutional holdings approximately 40.46%. Larger institutional holders include Vanguard Group, Blackrock Advisers, Barclays Global Investors, Street Corp., ING Investment Management Co.
VOLUME: 1.09mil shares, +47.2% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months. Typical daily volume is 741.5k shares over the past 6 months.
Live monthly chart shows the big picture.
News: A press release on 6/25 says: "Alaska Communications Systems Group and General Communication, Inc. recently announced that they have signed definitive agreements to form The Alaska Wireless Network, LLC (AWN). Alaska Communications will own one-third and GCI will own two-thirds of AWN. During the first four years of AWN's operations, Alaska Communications will be eligible to receive preferential cash distributions totaling $190 million. GCI will receive all remaining available cash distributions over the same period."
"Telecom stocks have been known as safe havens to investors in times of global economic uncertainty," says another recent press release from the same source.
"One under-$10 name in the communications services complex that’s trading within range of a major breakout trade is Alaska Communications Systems Group (ALSK), which provides integrated communications services to consumer and business customers in and out of Alaska. This stock is off to a bearish start in 2012, with shares off by around 24%.," an article by Roberto Pedone in Stockpickr explains.
Above: Nasdaq Stock Consultant's analysis of targets.
Live daily, which follows below, displays the short term play.
MPG - MPG Office Trust - $1.96
Company had its IPO on 6/25/2003 at $19.00 a share. No splits. All time high of $38.08 in April 2007. Institutional ownership now approximately 69.68%.
According to a June 26, 2012, Zachs press release: "MPG Office Trust Inc. (MPG) – one of the competitors of Digital Realty – with an Outperform recommendation and a matching Zacks #1 Rank (short-term Strong Buy rating), looks more attractive at current levels."
Live monthly chart below shows much of the history. Peaked out in early 2007, and has since etched out an extended base.
Finziz is apparently unsure of how to draw the upper trendline on the daily, so I'll take two shots at it:
Live daily chart below courtesy Finviz:
GEN - GenOn Energy, Inc. - $1.62
Electric utility. Institutional ownership is currently around 91.25% - 91.4%.
Static screen capture of Nasdaq Stock Consultant's targets:
Setup consists of a possible test of upper channel resistance around $2.00. Short term play unless followed by a breakout.
Dynamic chart courtesy of Finviz:
Finding Green in a Sea of Red
That was the name of a Stockcharts.com article by Arthur Hill posted yesterday on market close to the series Don't Ignore This Chart! In the sea of red, the only green lights that were illuminated were those of the commodities (which covers a broad spectrum) and the gold miners.
I'd written about the significance of the utilities and transits as bellweathers of sentiment in message #2414, and of the potential for the gold miners to rise and shine in message # 2386. What are the short term implications of all this in terms of market sentiment? Let's have a closer look.
Above: Look at where the indices are today, with particular attention to the utilities and transits. The utilities are the only ones in the group that are in a short term uptrend, according to the moving averages, and they are now down and performing a delicate balancing act on the critical MA 200.
In reviewing the ETF Market Summary this morning (approximately 11:35 AM) one may find similar pools of green among the sea of red, with Coffee, Sugar, Corn, Heating Oil and Natural Gas leading the pack. (Corn was also the leading commodity last night.) A more significant reading would naturally follow on market close today.
People are apparently parking their money where they see safety. Among the leading ETFs this morning is GRU (ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Grains Index) which clearly broadcast its intentions over the course of four prior trading days:
Market pessimism remains an international phemomenon, as is reflected by the majority of ETFs that weigh internationl economies. Indeed, the majority of them are in longer-term downtrends, and many have broken support at 50 MA - not very promising since the majority of them already have their 50 MAs parked below their 200 MAs.
Among the sector ETFs displaying a, well, bullish Bullish Percent Index are $BPHEAL and $BPUTIL. (The healthcare and utilities index respectively).
As of this moment (now 2:30) 16 Health Care stocks (primarily Nasdaq) are on the 52 week high list, followed by 13 Financials (primarily NYSE), 13 Consumer Retailers (mixed between Nasdaq & NYSE, but primarily Nasdaq), 7 Technology, 6 Consumer Staples, 3 Industrails, 3 Materials, and 3 Utilities. The remainder in the majority are mutual, portfolio, and income funds.
Some Live Charts
Among the leaders in commodities:
Coffee (has it hit its bottom?):
Corn:
Sugar:
Natural Gas:
Among the leaders in stocks:
Walmart:
News Corp.:
Dollar General:
Whole Foods Market:
The weekly chart looks juicy, but as you pointed out with the Renko daily it needs a confirmation signal. Thanks for sharing!
CLWR - Clearwire Corp. - $1.20
FUNDAMENTALS
Institutional ownership is rather high. Percentage of shares held by all insider and 5% owners: 19%. Percentage of shares held by institutional & mutual fund owners: 65%. Percentage of float held by institutional & mutual fund owners: 80%. Number of institutions holding shares: 189 according to Nasdaq, and 172 according to Yahoo Finance.
Top five holders are FMR LCC., Mount Kellett Capital, Intel Corp., Chesapeake Partners, and Highside Capital.
Insider buys outnumber sales 33 to 25 over the last 12 months.
No stock splits on record.
See: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/clwr/institutional-holdings
VOLUME: Not statistically significant. 12.97mil shares, +1.7% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months. Typical daily volume is 12.76mil shares over the past 6 months.
Time frame being considered: Longer term hold.
TECHNICALS
Here's the setup.
Above: Static monthly chart. Let's try to fill in the blank by looking at some targets.
Above: Static 8 month daily chart displays Nasdaq Stock Consultant's Rallybands(r), short and long targets, pivot points, moving average targets, etc. Note price seems to be gaining some footing.
Let's take a closer look at where resistance is with Bollinger bands, so that we know what we may anticipate.
Above: Static hourly chart displays rather typical price action. Price penetrates the outer boundary, it reverts to the mean. Note the firm resistance at the $1.20 - $1.22 level.
Now, let's look at some dynamic (self-updating) charts.
Above: Dynamic daily chart. Resistance at around $2.50 is clearly visible prior to the decline.
Above: Dynamic Stockharts.com daily view. Chart includes an EMA envelope. RSI & MACD are not looking very promising, at this time, however MACD is slowly rising.
Above: Stockcharts weekly. Note the slight increase in accumulation. PPO is beginning to look rather bullish.
Above: Dynamic Renko chart. No clear signal just yet. Watching and waiting.
AIQ - Alliance HealthCare Services - $0.85
FUNDAMENTALS
Institutional ownership is rather high. Percentage of shares held by all insider and 5% owners: 7%. Percentage of shares held by institutional & mutual fund owners: 83%. Percentage of float held by institutional & mutual fund owners: 89%. (You and I can quibble over the remaining 11%.) Number of institutions holding shares: 64 according to Nasdaq, and 60 according to Yahoo Finance.
Top five holders are Oaktree Capital Management, Michael R. Murphy, Brigade Capital Management, Ameriprise Financial, and General Electric. (I guess G.E. needs something to do, now that they've abandoned their appliance business).
Insider sales outnumber purchases 6 to 7 over the last 12 months.
See: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aiq/institutional-holdings
VOLUME: 2.76mil shares, up 2,375% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months.
High Volume alert!
Typical daily volume was only 147.2k shares over the past 6 months.
Time frame being considered: Longer term hold.
TECHNICALS
Here's the setup.
Above: Static monthly chart, with markups.
Let's take a closer look at the targets.
Above: Static 8 month daily chart displays Nasdaq Stock Consultant's Rallybands(r), short and long targets, pivot points, moving average targets, etc. Note steady decline.
Let's take a closer look at where resistance is with Bollinger bands, so that we know what we may anticipate.
Above: Static hourly chart displays rather typical price action. Price penetrates the outer boundary, it reverts to the mean. Now channeling downward with EMA 20 and the inner average contained in the Bollinger Bands serving as resistance..
Now, let's look at some dynamic (self-updating) charts.
Above: Dynamic daily chart. Note the pair of intraday volatility spikes prior to the decline. Price is still in a pronounced downtrend. Note high volume selling frenzy.
Above: Dynamic Stockharts.com daily view. Chart includes an EMA envelope. RSI & MACD are not looking very promising, at this time.
Above: Stockcharts weekly. Note the price decline, and the steady drop in accumulation, suggesting a true bottom may be in the making.
Above: Dynamic Renko chart. No clear signal just yet. Watching and waiting.
SVNT - Savient Pharmaceticals - $0.69
FUNDAMENTALS
Institutional ownership is incredibly high. Percentage of shares held by all insider and 5% owners: 11%. Percentage of shares held by institutional & mutual fund owners: 89.72%. Percentage of float held by institutional & mutual fund owners: 98%. (That doesn't leave much for you and me!) Number of institutions holding shares: 122.
See: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/puls/institutional-holdings
VOLUME 11.83mil shares, up 878% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months.
High Volume alert! Typical daily volume is 1.21mil shares over the past 6 months.
Insider transactions: Buys outnumber sells 30 to 5 over the last 12 months.
All time high $28.42 in July 2008. All time low $0.65, June 2012.
Time frame being considered: Longer term hold.
TECHNICALS
Here's the setup.
Above: Static monthly chart. Scary how quickly they can lose value, isn't it? Glad I wasn't a buy and hold investor in this one at its peak.
Let's take a closer look at the targets.
Above: Static 8 month daily chart displays Nasdaq Stock Consultant's Rallybands(r), short and long targets, pivot points, moving average targets, etc. Note steep decline in early May. Now channeling sideways, potentially building a base.
Let's take a closer look at where resistance is with Bollinger bands, so that we know what we may anticipate.
Above: Static hourly chart displays rather typical price action. Price penetrates the outer boundary, it reverts to the mean. Now channeling sideways along EMA 20. Safe play would be to buy in on a bounce off of the lower boundary, which is what it may be setting up to do.
Now, let's look at some dynamic (self-updating) charts.
Above: Dynamic daily chart displays steep long-term downward channel. Channel support broke, and look at that decline.
Above: Dynamic Stockharts.com daily view. Chart includes an EMA envelope. RSI & MACD are not looking very promising, at this time.
Above: Stockcharts weekly. Note the price consolidation, and the steady drop in accumulation, suggesting a true bottom may be in the making. It may take time, however patience is a virtue.
Above: Dynamic Renko chart. No clear signals just yet.
I like reading these! Keep them coming! Chart Addict what ya think about ROSV?
PULS - Pulse Electronics Corp. - $1.91
FUNDAMENTALS
Institutional ownership is amazingly high, with about 75 percent of the float held by institutional investors. A total of 112 such firms are invested. Major holders include Deprince Race & Zollo, Royce & Assoc., Vanguard Group, Blackrock Fund Advisors, Becker Drapkin Management. Insiders are buying, and selling, and buying. Buys outnumber sells 28 to 14 over the last 12 months.
Stock increased by 2 for 1 split 11/28/2000. All time high was $32.28 in October of 2006. Prior low $0.95 in March, 2009.
See: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/puls/institutional-holdings
VOLUME: 4.8mil shares, up 3,159% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months.
High Volume alert! Typical daily volume is 147.2k shares over the past 6 months.
Time frame being considered: Longer term hold.
TECHNICALS
Here's the setup.
Above: Static monthly chart with markups. Possibility of a long-term double bottom in the making.
Let's take a closer look at the targets.
Above: Static 8 month daily chart displays Nasdaq Stock Consultant's Rallybands(r), short and long targets, pivot points, moving average targets, etc. Now channeling sideways, potentially building a base.
Let's take a closer look at where resistance is with Bollinger bands, so that we know what we may anticipate.
Above: Static hourly chart displays rather typical price action. Price penetrates the outer boundary, it reverts to the mean. Now channeling sideways along EMA 20. Not much help, at this point, but well worth keeping a close eye on. Safe play would be to buy in on a bounce off of the lower boundary.
Now, let's look at some dynamic (self-updating) charts.
Above: Dynamic daily chart displays steep long-term downward channel. If it does break out of the upper resistance line, waiting for a subsequent pullback outside of the line may be appropriate.
Above: Dynamic Stockharts.com daily view. Chart includes an EMA envelope. RSI & MACD are neutral.
Above: Stockcharts weekly. Note the price consolidation, and the severe drop in accumulation, suggesting a true bottom may be in the making.
Above: Dynamic Renko chart. Note the rising CCI & StoRSI. One white brick, however no clear signal just yet.
CBK - Christopher & Banks - $1.15
FUNDAMENTALS
Institutional ownership is rather high, with over 78 percent of the float held by hedge funds and institutional investors. A total of 108 such firms are invested. Major holders include Price T. Rowe, Franklin Resources, North Run Capital, Vanguard Group, and Dimension Fund Advisors. Insiders are buying, and selling, and buying. Buys outnumber sells 14 to 9 over the last 12 months.
See: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/cbk/institutional-holdings
VOLUME: 4.41mil shares, +1312% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months. High Volume alert! Typical daily volume is 312.3k shares over the past 6 months. Extreme 3 day accumulation, occurs only 5% of the time.
Time frame being considered: Longer term hold.
TECHNICALS
Here's the setup.
After forming a multi-month long downward spiral, now forming a possible rounding bottom. Let's look more closely.
Above: Static daily chart displaying the downtrend resistance line and the apparent rounding bottom.
Let's take a closer look at the targets.
Above: Static 8 month daily chart displays Nasdaq Stock Consultant's Rallybands(r), short and long targets, pivot points, moving average targets, etc.
Let's take a closer look at where resistance is with Bollinger bands, so that we know what we may anticipate.
Above: Static hourly chart displays a pincher a few days ago. Note how EMA 20 provided firm resistance during the downtrend. Just as price popped through the pincher point, it popped atop EMA 20 as well. One recent thrust through the upper band, followed by reversion to the mean. Note also that an apparent double bottom formed just prior to the price entering the pincher.
Now, let's look at some dynamic (self-updating) charts.
Above: Dynamic daily chart displays upper resistance line. Note the high volume last Friday. It looks as if it may be setting up for a breakout, however it may pull back providing a buying opportunity. If it does break out of the resistance line, waiting for a subsequent pullback outside of the line may be appropriate.
Above: Dynamic Stocharts.com daily view. Note the recent burst of volume, and the rising RSI. Chart includes an EMA envelope.
Above: Stockcharts weekly.
Above: Dynamic Renko chart, currently saying that it may be setting up to go. (No clear signal, yet).
AONE - A123 Systems - $1.50
FUNDAMENTALS
Institutional ownership is relatively high, with slightly over 50 perceent of the float held by hedge funds and institutional investors. A total of 122 such firms are invested. Major holders include AllianceBernstein, General Electric, Vanguard Group, Invesco, and Barclays Global Investors. Insiders are buying, and selling, and buying.
See: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aone/institutional-holdings
Strong 3 day accumulation. High volume alert: 5.13mil shares, +74.2% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months. Typical daily volume is 2.95mil shares over the past 6 months.
TECHNICALS
Here's the setup. After forming a tight and multi-month long downward channel, the anticipated breakout did not materialize. Now, a rounding bottom appears to be setting itself up. Let's look more closely.
Above: Static daily chart displaying the channel resistance lines and the apparent rounding bottom.
Above: Static 8 month daily chart displays Nasdaq Stock Consultant's Rallybands(r), short and long targets, pivot points, moving average targets, etc.
Let's take a closer look at where resistance is, so that we know what we may anticipate.
Above: Static hourly chart displays a "pincher," followed by a breakout. Has since moved back into normal bounds formed by the bands.
DYNAMIC CHARTS
Now, let's look at some dynamic (self-updating) charts.
Above: Dynamic daily chart displays channel resistance. It looks as if it may be setting up for a breakout, however it may pull back providing a buying opportunity. If it does break out of the channel, waiting for a subsequent pullback outside of the channel may be appropriate.
Above: 15 minute dynamic chart adorned with Bollinger bands. At this point, it can either break out, or pull back reverting to the mean.
Above: Dynamic Stocharts.com daily view. Note the recent burst of volume, and the rising MA 50.
Above: Dynamic Renko chart, currently displaying that it may go either way.
[If a dynamic chart does not display properly, refresh the screen].
Fantastic write-up CA! Do you have a blog?
Musings on Dow and Gann Theory
I was looking at the major indices this morning, and two things were readily apparent. First, that the majority of them were hovering around the 200 day mark, testing resistance there, and apparently the market was reluctant to thrust them beyond that point. Second, that the two outliers that provided the exception to the rule were the Dow Transports and the Utilities, both of which had closed well above their respective 200 day moving averages.
The charts were ominous enough this morning that I thought to take snapshots of them. The markets were topped out, I reasoned, and were about to take a downward turn. Let's see how things turned out.
Above: Major U.S. indices this morning at 10:52 AM.
Above: Major U.S. indices on market close.
One of the giveaways this morning was the Dow Utilities Index, which was the only index of the lot to actually be in an uptrend according to the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Also, the Transports looked weak. The Dow theorist in me, as it turns out, was right to follow his intuition. Or, was I?
Are articles such as “How the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Other Major Stock Indexes Fared on Wednesday,” published a few hours ago in the Washington Post truly of some relevance, or are they only minor distractions to the trader? Indeed, many a market technician continues to rely on such benchmarks. “The strengths of Dow's Theory far outweigh any weaknesses. Dow's Theory has proven itself over the past 112 years to be a useful, sound and profitable investment approach,” writes Robert W. Colby in an excerpt of his book. “The venerable Dow Theory after more than a century has stood the test of time,” Colby explains.
A BRIEF HISTORY
In earlier versions of Dow theory, railroads held great importance as they dominated the market. The Transport Average has been since expanded to include freight companies (such as UPS and Fedex), airlines, and shipping companies. Nevertheless, the Dow Industrial Index itself has declined in significance over the years. Today, many traders instead use the Standard & Poors 500 index to confirm Dow signals. Some others ignore index-generated signals altogether, trading only individual stocks. The Dow theory also has its share of critics.
This is nothing new. In 1936, W. D. Gann observed: “For years the Dow-Jones Industrial Averages, Railroad Averages, and Public Utility Averages, have been a reliable guide to the trend of the market. Years ago when there were 12 Industrial Stocks which were representative, they were a guide to the trend of industrial stocks. When railroads were the leaders and active, the 20 Railroad Averages were a good trend indicator. But now, since more than 1,200 stocks are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the 20 Railroad Averages and the 30 Industrial Averages are no longer representative or a guide to the average trend of the entire market.”
Gann continued on this this vein, noting that the Averages had by the 1930s become “obsolete.” He explains that while the Dow Averages worked rather well up until 1916, World War changed everything. To be a success, the trader must abandon old ideas when they become obsolete, and follow new rules and new stocks in order to be successful in the markets. One must change with the times, and adapt to following the trends of individual stocks, regardless of the actions of their industry averages.
In support of his proposition, Gann succinctly explained:
“Years ago Stage Coach Stocks advanced and you could have made money buying them, but stage coaches went out of business and so did the stocks. Then there were Canal Stocks that advanced and you could have made money buying them, but other modes of transportation reduced the business on canals. The automobiles came along and took business away from the railroads. Now the airplane is coming along and taking business from the railroads and will later take it from the automobiles and trucks. You will have to watch airplanes in future as a guide, the same as you watched automobile stocks a few years ago, because the money will be made trading in airplane stocks rather than rails or automobiles.”
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THAY STAY THE SAME - EVEN AS THEY CHANGE
Gann (p. 31) encourages his reader to “change with the times,” while noting (p. 29) that “you cannot trade in averages. You must follow the trend of individual stocks to make money.”
Just as there has been an increasing diversification among the indices since Gann's era; so is something else new since his time – the ability to trade them. One can trade the Dow by virtue of its proxy the Diamonds (NYSE: DIA); or trade the Nasdaq 100 Trust by virtue of the Cubes (NASDAQ: QQQ); or trade the S&P 500 Index by virtue of SPY.
In looking at the Transports, we find an interesting hybridization among the industry in the wake of pipelines extending many miles far further than was thought possible in Gann's era (itself a major development in transportation since his time) and the concept of a “pipeline on rails” as an alternative method of transporting crude is emerging internationally. (The price of the commodity crude itself plays a significant role in the calculating the potential cost-effectiveness of this equation).
It is not uncommon in this ever-outward-expanding universe of international commerce to find a hybridization of transportation that makes it difficult to decide where one mode of transportation lets off, and where another begins. This hybridization allows for the:
1) transportation of cargo on containerized seafaring vessels by means of what is today know as an “intermodal container”
2) expansion of an industry based primarily on the transfer of freight between differing modes of transportation
3) the transportation of containerized freight across land after travel overseas by means of either truck, rail, or both
4) the delivery of the freight to regional distribution centers by means of conventional trucking
5) the industry of warehousing, sorting, processing, and repackaging cargo for distribution to localized facilities
6) the transporting of freight to its final destination, most typically by means of conventional trucking.
7) Rounding out the list is the use of one means of transportation to transport another, whether by land or by sea.
This is nothing new. The now-defunct Seatrain Lines is often credited with the introduction of the standard international intermodal container, most commonly 8 feet high, 8 feet wide, and 40 feet long. In 1929, Seatrain Lines began the innovative practice of hauling rail cars by ship from the port of New York to Havana, Cuba. Their two ships, Seatrain New York and Seatrain Havana were each capable of carrying 100 fully loaded railcars on their four decks. As long ago as 1932, an article in Popular Mechanics referred to Seatrain as having “the most unusual ship afloat.”
In a world that is populated by hybrid forms of transportation, what may serve as a fair measure of “the transports” in this day and age? Enter, stage right, the S&P Transportation Select Industry Index, one of a growing number of specialty indices. As Standard and Poors explains: “S&P Select Industry Indices are designed to measure the performance of narrow Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) sub-industries, the most detailed level of industry definition. The index series currently includes 25 indices spanning nine different GICS sectors. Constituent stocks are members of the S&P Total Market Index (S&P TMI) which includes all common equities listed on the NYSE and the NASDAQ U.S. Exchanges.”
A relatively new (inception date 1/26/11) exchange traded fund also seeks to answer the question. Enter stage left XTN, the SPDR S&P Transportation ETF. Before expenses, it “seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the S&P Transportation Select Industry Index.” While there are some other transportation related ETFs available, this one serves as a fair proxy for the index.
There is one minor problem, and that relates to its utility as a trading vehicle. While the ETF arguably should bear broader acceptance, it is thinly traded. As of market close today (June 21, 2012) it had traded a mere 934 shares, with volume traded since the beginning of the week of only 2,704 shares. Not quite what you'd call a liquid investment. And, if history is any indication, thinly-traded ETFs tend to have limited lifespans.
As Ron Rowland explains in a recent commentary in his ongoing series ETF Deathwatch: “The number of names on ETF Deathwatch climbs by a dozen for June with 19 new additions and seven deletions. The new count stands at 336, consisting of 237 ETFs and 99 ETNs. This is an astonishing 127% increase from the 148 names of a year ago. Excluded from eligibility are 129 of the 1,465 listings (as of May 31) because they were launched in the prior six months and are given a grace period to gain traction with investors. That means just 1,336 ETFs and ETNs are currently eligible, and more than a quarter (25.1%) of them are now on ETF Deathwatch.”
Hands down, the Wikipedia definition beats the Investopedia definition of Beta: “In finance, the Beta (ß) of a stock or portfolio is a number describing the volatility of an asset in relation to the volatility of the benchmark that said asset is being compared to. This benchmark is generally the overall financial market and is often estimated via the use of representative indices, such as the S&P 500.”
This presents another potential difficulty for the trader. With the ever-increasing popularity of exchange traded funds (complete with double or triple leverage, both long and short versions of which now exist) it has been observed that at least some individual stocks have developed a tendency to follow the industry-specific ETF of which they themselves are a component. This raises the question of which is the proverbial chicken, and which is the proverbial egg? More to the point, it raises the question of precisely which benchmark to use for a given security.
I have to wonder what Gann would think of today's ETFs as compared to the older and better-established benchmarks. And, what would he think of being able to trade those benchmarks, albeit by proxy through a corresponding ETF, today.
Just think about all of the contributions to trading by the likes of Dow and Gann that were made without the benefits of computers. As Colby explains it: “Considering its absence of evolutionary change, it is all the more remarkable that the Dow Theory has survived the test of time over the past turbulent century of unprecedented events, which included two world wars, a world-wide economic depression, and mind boggling triumphs of science and technology unimaginable in Charles H. Dow's day. Consider too that Dow created from scratch a predictive stock market barometer over a period of just a few years, with only a small quantity of primitive data and with no computer. If Charles H. Dow and his successors, S. A. Nelson, William P. Hamilton, and Robert Rhea, were alive today, they might extend their pioneering work with the help of vastly more data and power to analyze that data than they ever could have imagined.”
Why Colby neglected to mention Gann is anyone's best guess. His writings are far more accessible than are his charts, and they bear as much relevance to trading in the modern era as they did back in his.
Thanks CA! I'm just a backup for Andy at Quality Stocks/MissionIR. He's the man. Check out his daily videos.
You have a very personable and listenable broadcasting persona. Keep 'em coming!
Video chart I made last night for $PIP: http://ih.advfn.com/videos/stock-chart/pip-video-chart-analysis_dtbRN6D04kk
The coal stock to which you'd posted a link certainly does rather rather bullish.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PCX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72272591448
A few general observations. Coal mining is clearly an oversold and underloved sector. While there is usually a softening of prices during the summer time, due to reduced demand, weekly charts reveal that this is not a seasonal softening - rather is is a sector crash. But truly, what is the alternative? Solar? The charts say otherwise.
Windpower? Unfortunately, not yet on a meaningful scale. And, no one likes nuclear--at least not enough to propose the construction of another major plant after Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi. What's left? Hydropower? I'm all for that, but I don't see any offers on the table for dam construction forthcoming.
Many coal stocks are trading at a fraction of what they used to bring. Something to watch at this stage is whether hedge, mutual funds, and other big institutional investors are beginning to accumulate.
I try to keep track of fallen sectors by bookmarking their mini-charts on Stockcharts, and by watching related ETFs.
It has become increasingly common for many stocks tracked by an ETF to instead track the performance of the ETFs that hold them. This is more or less a recent development that has largely gone unnoticed.
When I use these candleglance charts, I generally like to monitor accumulation. Here is a reduced-in-size screen grab of how it looks here. Note that five of the six stocks shown are making bullish moves. LLEN has gone so far as to have confirmed a double bottom.
KOL and PKOL are the ETFs to consider, whether for investing in the coal sector, or for watching as a possible leading indicators.
Watching PCX here... time for coal to rebound?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PCX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72272591448
I think the second Fib fan is spot on. It's fun to play with those things!
Here is me trying to use RENKO on SPY:
http://blog.chartmystock.com/2012/06/14/spy-renko-chart.aspx
SGGH - Signature Group Holdings - $0.35
The story
Company was known as Fremont General Corp until June of 2006. On June 18, 2008, the company filed a petition under Chapter XI of the Federal Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Central District of California, Santa Ana Division, according to the company profile at Otcmarkets.com. The company emerged from bankruptcy in 2010.
The current leadership blames James McIntyre, the former Chairman and CEO of Fremont, for the ills of the company today. A recent letter to shareholders details a battle between the current leadership and McIntyre, who has taken steps to have himself reelected by shareholders. The letter is highly detailed, and discusses the McIntyre "legacy" at some length. Current management asserts that the company is currently well positioned for a turnaround. The Company joined the OTC on April 2, 2012, according to a press release on PRNewswire. It currently resides on the OTCQX tier.
The charts
Related stuff
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?sggh
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/SGGH/quote
http://www.signaturegroupholdings.com/
BCAR - Bank of the Carolinas - $0.16
Bank of the Carolinas Corporation is the holding company for Bank of the Carolinas, a North Carolina chartered bank headquartered in Mocksville, NC with offices in Advance, Asheboro, Cleveland, Concord, Harrisburg, King, Landis, Lexington and Winston-Salem.
"It would be more accurate to call it Bank of the North Carolina," the Hoovers company description says. "Bank of the Carolinas Corporation was formed in 2006 to be the holding company for Bank of the Carolinas, which provides traditional deposit and lending services to individuals and businesses through about 10 branches in central North Carolina. Deposit services include checking, savings, and money market accounts; IRAs; and CDs. Commercial real estate loans account for the largest portion of the company's loan portfolio; the bank's lending activities also include business, construction, and consumer loans, residential mortgages, and home equity lines of credit."
In September of 2011, the Federal Reserve entered into a written agreement with the company for it to serve as a "source of strength" for the bank. The banking unit had also been operating under a consent order between itself and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. since April of 2011.
In November 2011, American Banker reported that Eric E. Rhodes had resigned from the company, stepping down as CFO of the company's banking unit. "The $506 million-asset company said only that Rhodes was leaving for personal reasons. It has not yet named a replacement," the article explained.
Bank of the Carolinas was delisted from the Nasdaq, and arrived on the Pink Sheets on March 5, 2012, explains a recent article in The Business Journal. The bank had been under a warning from Nasdaq since it fell out of compliance with rules requiring it to maintain a minimum market value of publicly-held shares of $5 million. The company had not been able to meet that threshold, and it chose not to appeal the suspension because of the expenses that would result.
An article published on May 7 in The Business Journal explains that the bank had made a "significant improvement" in its level of nonperforming assets for the fourth consecutive quarter. "The improvement was the result of reduced income expenses and a lower provision for loan losses," reporter Matt Evans explained.
The community bank is apparently good at building goodwill among residents of the community that it serves, according to an article in The Dispatch in which it was announced that the bank would sponsor the Second Annual BBQ Capital Cook-off.
"Bank of the Carolinas is very excited to be involved with the BBQ Capital Cook-off for the second year," said Ed Jordan, executive vice president and chief operating officer for Bank of the Carolinas. "As a bank, we are committed to our community and continuing to provide support for this new initiative is the perfect way to show our sincerity. We look forward to building upon the success of last year's event. Our employees also enjoyed being part of the event."
"With the sponsorship of Bank of the Carolinas and our other sponsors, [Uptown Lexington, Inc.] is able to reinvest registration fees back in to uptown," said Jo Ellen Edwards, executive director for ULI. "Proceeds from the 2011 contest can already be seen along Main Street in tree work and new street banners."
In a press release issued on May 4, 2012, the bank reported a loss for the first quarter. "The Company's net interest margin was 2.81% in the first quarter of 2012, which is a decrease from 3.02% in the first quarter in 2011. Noninterest expense for the first quarter, excluding the costs related to foreclosed real estate, increased 13.8% in 2012 versus 2011. The increase year over year was mainly driven by increased FDIC premiums, legal expenses, and costs related to the Company's compliance with the regulatory consent order put in place in the second quarter of 2011," the release explained.
"First quarter results were negatively impacted by loan loss provisions and expenses related to foreclosed real estate as the Bank continues to aggressively work on reducing problem assets. The provision for loan losses totaled $1.3 million in the first quarter of 2012 as compared to $2.3 million in the first quarter a year ago. Costs related to foreclosed real estate were $864,000 for the first quarter of 2012 as compared to $274,000 in the first quarter of 2011. For the first quarter of 2012, total credit-related costs totaled $2.2 million, or a 19.5% decrease over the previous year's first quarter costs of $2.7 million," the bank's release explained.
----------------------
The Charts
Live Candlesticks, weekly:
Live Renko, daily:
Thanks for the TA on SMKY - L2 sure looks like it could push into double-digits very soon, which would bust through key resistance on the chart.
Well, this is an interesting one. . .
IP_RU intrigues me. What I like about the company is how refreshingly candid they are in their most recent filing, dated 5/15/2012. I also like that they are up to date in their filings, and that they are NASDAQ rather than Pink Sheets. I genuinely like what I have seen of the magazine, and I will pick up a copy the next time I'm in Barnes & Noble (BKS $15.39 -0.19%). That they have sold out 80% of their magazine's shelf stock is strong. That they can find (how do I put this?) guys with macho images (Sammy Hagar and Charlie Sheen) who are perhaps befitting well the concept of promoting cigars and spirits is a good sign. I admire the company's perseverance.
I am certainly going to add this to my watch list, however I would not be in any particular hurry to buy in. The 30 minute chart shows it still in a pronounced downtrend.
The best that can be said for the weekly chart is that it appears to be forming a triple bottom.
Volume is good, with 41 million shares traded last Friday, so the liquidity is there. One thing that it does have going for it on the daily chart is that OBV, Chi/Osc and Acc/Dis have all attained new lows simultaneously. This is highly indicative of a “true” bottom in the making. In my experience, it is when all three start hooking upward that the action begins. (It may take days or weeks for this to happen.) To be sure, with that balance sheet, it truly is a micro-cap – and one with a rather heavy debt burden.
Latest SEC filing:
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001494413-12-000007%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C05%5C15%5C&CoName=INNOVATIVE+PRODUCT+OPPORTUNITIES+INC%2E&FormType=10-Q&RcvdDate=5%2F15%2F2012&pdf=
June 5 press release:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/innovative-product-opportunities-inc-cigar-143000968.html
Magazine preview:
http://issuu.com/cigarandspiritsmag/docs/cspreview/1
Company home page:
http://www.cigarandspirits.com/
Watching EN_TB, and CA_VR... want to ask you if you had any thoughts on IP_RU
> JNSH I like, higher high and higher lows.
Higher highs and higher lows. That's the classic definition of an uptrend. As of Friday, JNSH was also at a 52 week high.
I didn't have time to post their charts, but have a look at AUMY, ENTB, EQLB, CAVR, ZLCS, QTWW, NBS and THQI. They are all doing interesting things.
JNSH I like, higher high and higher lows.
CPRX MMAB JADA SMKY MSMY JNSH ENTB AGIJ NVDL SGGH
CPRX - Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners, Inc.
Live chart:
According to Nasdaq Stock Consultant:
BULLISH Probability - Intermediate trend bullish, Unsustainable downtrend, may turn sideways.
Probability - Extreme Oversold, odds definitely favor long trades.
Confirmation - Strong bullish 3 day chart pattern with Extreme 3 day accumulation.
Confirmation - Extreme bullish 1 day moneyflow
Probability - Excessive Down trend (1 month), not sustainable, occurs only 10% of the time, expect trend to turn sideways or higher.
Confirmation - CONFIRMED breakout above 0.59, no resistance in area just above.
BEARISH Probability - 1 Day Price change strong up, may pause.
Took the words right out of my mouth. See:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/cprx/stock-consultant
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cprx&ql=1
--------
MMAB - Municipal Mortgage & Equity, LLC
Static weekly chart with markups:
No Stock Consultant report available. Current in their reporting with U.S. regulators. OTCQB status.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MMAB/company-info
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mmab&ql=1
--------
JADA - Jade Art Group
This is how JADA looked on the daily chart when it first came to my attention on April 9. I left it to ripen on the vine:
This is how it looked on June 8 on the weekly chart:
Note: Company's web site domain name is for sale, last SEC filing was in November of 2010, and this company is listed on OTC Martkets with a
Comment: Caution advised. Play it on technicals only over the shorter term.
--------
SMKY - Smoky Market Foods, Inc.
Here is how the daily chart looked on June 7:
Here is the weekly as of the weekend of June 9:
No Stock Consultant report available. Current in their reporting with U.S. regulators. OTCQB status.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=smky&ql=1
http://smokymarket.com/Default.aspx
--------
MSMY - MC Endeavors, Inc.
Live daily:
Live weekly:
Comment: Web site is active, and there are current press releases. However, it is listed on OTC Markets with a
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MSMY
http://www.mcendeavors.com/
--------
JNSH - JNS Holdings Corp.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jnsh&ql=1
http://www.jnsholdings.com/
March 2012 Quarterly report:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=80897
--------
ENTB - Entest BioMedical, Inc.
No Stock Consultant report available. Current in their reporting with U.S. regulators. OTCQB status.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=entb&ql=1
http://www.entb.net/
--------
AGIJ - Axia Group, Inc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=agij&ql=1
--------
NVDL - NovaDel Pharma, Inc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVDL
http://www.novadel.com/
--------
SGGH - Signature Group Holdings
No Stock Consultant report available. Current in their reporting with U.S. regulators. OTCQX status.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sggh&ql=1
http://www.signaturegroupholdings.com/
--------
Still also watching the usual suspects. Banking, coal, shipping, quick flips on the pinkies. No warranty express or implied.
Nice trade! I need to put a few of those little banks on my main list to watch.
Nice catch on APPA! FMAR was my big winner today. I bought in right after I posted my message this morning and filled at $0.49. Imagine my delight when it closed out the day at $0.70, giving me the lion's share of a +42.86% move!
Only goes to show that high volume isn't necessarily needed to move stocks. Both APPA and FMAR traded under 100k shares today.
I'll probably grab some OPHC on Monday, and I'm patiently waiting for CBCR and FBC to talk to me.
New to the watch list this week: AUMY, ENTB, EQLB, CAVR, ZLCS (which I should have bought days ago - but, alas, the phone rang), QTWW, NBS and THQI.
Up another 8.7% today. Hope it's got some meat on the bone and not all speculation.
Short term tide turning on banking industry
The longer term trend among the financials still appears to be down, however a short term swing toward the upside in the form of a counter-trend rally appears to be in the making.
UYG - Proshares Ultra Financials ETF:
NASDAQ Bank Index:
Paste this into Candleglance at Stockcharts and bookmark it for a handy reference to financial indices:
$BANK, $BIX, $BKX, $DJSRBK, $DJTBAK, $DJUSBK, $DWCBNK, $GSPBK, $KRX, $XRH
Paste this into Candleglance at Stockcharts for a handy reference to financial ETFs:
IAT, KBE, KRE, KRS, KRU, PJB, QABA, RKH, UYG
Followers
|
40
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
2444
|
Created
|
03/08/10
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderator shankapotamus | |||
Assistants Immie Chart Addict |
This is a board where I'll be posting annotated charts of plays that I'm in or
watching. I will be posting NASDAQ, NYSE, and OTCBB picks as they come
across my screens. These posts are all my personal opinion only and nothing
more. Feel free to comment or post annotated charts of your own. Do your
own due diligence before investing in any securities.Thanks for visiting!
Off topic or spammy posts will be deleted!
My Favorite Links:
www.ChartMyStock.com
Posts Today
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
2444
|
Posters
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Assistants
|
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |