Replies to post #1548 on Charts SYSTEMS

[snootmagruder]

GDL, My recent post had a link for that last GDP report. Excluding inventories and only counting final sales it was 1.9% and below the 2% that says a recession is coming.

Most, I am assuming, still think the "recovery" is tenuous or faked.

They may think it's faked, but bull / bear ratios are very bullish, too bullish maybe? Let's not forget what the end of QE and the onslaught of Obamacare bring either. Maybe even throw in some Eurozone crisis to top it off.

Gold confirmed this move as real. The new low target is around 1,000.

I don't suppose you realize with the exception of the last two years PM correction that gold typically runs along with equities? I wouldn't use equities to call the next move.

[northam43]

gdl - The market is overbought. The chart below shows that all SPX Cycle times frames are in an extended Phase 2 (that means they have all exceeded or are projected to exceed their average Phase 2), a Weekly extended Phase 2 high is due Jan 6th, the projected extended high is 1828.34, a Daily extended Phase 2 high is due Jan 14th, the projected extended high is 1861.43, I just don't see a way to 1900 without at least a Weekly Phase 1 correction.



The SPX Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull gap closed Friday at 78.02, the record is 78.81



Weekly & Monthly MACD is a historic highs



I will continue to increase my downside position as significant upside moves are made (ie...Daily & Weekly highs) up to 50%, and I will limit my upside position between 10 to 20%, until at least a Weekly Phase 1 correction has started.

[gdl]

I am replying to my own post from one year ago. I find it amazing that no one changed their views even as their premise was proven false. I always look back at my written thoughts and try to correct my mistaken assumptions. I was ridiculed for just posting my trend assumptions without showing actual bets. I suppose if I had W. Buffett's ear I would be more interested in his take on the future than his daily bets.

As for my future expectations it seems I am in line with Roubini's. 2016 is my target for the big fall. Everything to date seems to fall in line with that analysis. EU and China have the political will to reverse their slow down. When all major nations are rising the debt pressures will rise with rates.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini--u-s--equities-will-be-strong-until-2016-133934757.html