Replies to post #10308 on National Storm Management Inc (NSMG)

[NYPDBLUE]

3 in the season but forget this stock after labor day,it will be done no matter what. I again will be gone before that date as well.

[chevdawg18]

Deewar - i was not exaggerating the threat of a possible major hurricane hitting the US within 2 weeks. I dont think you can exaggerate that sorta stuff.

FWIW, all 5 models i said grow this into a major storm. So me one of those 5 models that does not.

Furthermore, extrapolation is key here - what you are suggesting i guess is that some of these models dont have it hitting the US but thats only because they only go out 10 days. You can easily extrapolate that with a wave at that low of a level entering dominican repuplic there is a very high probability where it goes then.

Basically, we are arguing symantics but i would put the odds at 38% that something serious hits the US within 13 days.

When you have the ECMWF forming a monster hurricane - you know something is up ehhhh

[chevdawg18]

Hey just checking the 06z models and your halfway right lol. You say only the GFS turns it into a monster buts thats dead wrong.

Looks at the GFS CMC and ECMWF and tell me those are not major hurricanes with those isobars.

The GFDL and HWRF arent majors currently although they are run for just Trop Depression 2 so we will see when they are run for it.