National Storm Management Inc (NSMG)

[Deewar25]

Little much there dawg...huge exaggeration - first TD 2 will likely recurve as it has a track further north to start, hit high east coast at best, or dissipate before land - the only consideration is the one behind it, and to say all develop it into a major hurricane is very misleading. Only the GFS shows it so far as a major storm - CMC is shaping up that way, but the model has been very weak for a few years and no forecaster trusts it. The most reliable models are the ECMWF and the GFDL - ECM can't make up its mind - originally it was tracking to Dominican, then it tracked north as a larger storm, now its back on the Dominican track. GFDL which is #1 model shows a track to Dominican area, but at tropical storm strength by the end of the run.

To say most models have it directly hitting is bogus....not one confirms that yet. There IS the potential thou for this to be a gulf storm, but it will depend on whether it tracks over Dominican and Cuba which could break it up enough.

We are early, but this is the biggest threat this year no question. Just keep it real, there are still 3 solid months to go!