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Wednesday, August 12, 2009 8:50:43 AM
FWIW, all 5 models i said grow this into a major storm. So me one of those 5 models that does not.
Furthermore, extrapolation is key here - what you are suggesting i guess is that some of these models dont have it hitting the US but thats only because they only go out 10 days. You can easily extrapolate that with a wave at that low of a level entering dominican repuplic there is a very high probability where it goes then.
Basically, we are arguing symantics but i would put the odds at 38% that something serious hits the US within 13 days.
When you have the ECMWF forming a monster hurricane - you know something is up ehhhh
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