well, you say ALL will develop it into a major storm - the latest run of the GFDL still only has it as a trop storm (it doesn't need a new run, just look in the run window for trop two). CMC has it maybe cat 1 at best with pressure of 1004 mpa, GFS is major as I said, ecmwf, yes, I initially thought it showed a breakup, but that was just it looping back and it looked like a continuation even thou it was first frame - yep, big deal there, HWRF shows a trop depression by end of forecast period.
A major storm you talk of (YET) would be in 3 models at best. I agree there is certainly the risk down the road though, and that's why we are here hoping for an early play on the stocks! GFDL is key as that was the #1 player last year.
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