Replies to post #49215 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[Corp_Buyer]

"arbitrators setting a 3G rate" for NOK- Here is how I see the arbitration going and WHY NOK does NOT (or should NOT) want to get to arbitration.

NOK will argue that the literal reading of their contract does not apply so Ericy is not a trigger since their intent of the language is that only OEMs representing sufficient market share should set the license rates for NOK.

IDCC will respond that the literal reading would dictate that ERICY is a trigger, but if the arbitrators accept NOK's interpretation, then here is a list of IDCC's 2G licensees and the concensus rate is ___%, so NOK should be bound to pay that rate (which might be higher than the Ericy rate).

Furthermore, IDCC will argue that the market has also spoken as to 3G rates, and here is a list of our 3G licensees which pay a concensus rate of ___%, so NOK should be further bound to pay that rate for 3G (which also will likely be higher than NOK could negotiate with IDCC directly).

So, the very argument that NOK is making (in favor of market share or concensus rates) can be used quite effectively by IDCC to turn around against NOK to request the arbitrators to set all 2G AND 3G rates for NOK.

Accordingly, I do beleive it is NOT in NOK's best interests to go to arbitration and IDCC is in the driver's seat for a settlement with NOK.

Your thoughts?

Regards,
Corp_Buyer

[jai]

I'm probably a newbie (in for about 4 years) but in that time we have consistantly been hoping that Nokia set a rate. The arbitration move changed my thinking. First I was upset at the company for declaring Victory and cashing out. After I got over the large haircut my portfolio took that day (I was buying after the Ericson settlement) I began to understand what IDCC was up against.

For years I thought Microsoft would lose. I did my masters Thesis on AT&T Unix versus IBM/MSFT DOS. I saw UNIX as a superior product and DOS/Windows as buggy and troblesome.
My investment strategy was betting against MSFT with NOVL. I lost and NOVL/IBM/LOTUS..etc etc lost.

The companies that won worked with MSFT. They fought their way to becoming the 800 pound Gorilla in the PC world and INTEL road on MSFT back to become the powerhouse that it is today.

That being said I do not beleive we can get Nokia to agree to anything that they do not clearly see as in the best interest for Nokia. Right now they view royalty payments as unneccesary costs of doing business and would like nothing more than to eliminate them completely. With this mindset how can you explain to them that they should set a rate? They will save money? They are not paying anything now so they can't save anything.

Nokia would steamroll over IDCC if they could just the way MSFT steamrolled over DR-DOS (The original inventor of DOS). Unfortunately for Nokia IDCC decided to build a solid legal team to help them protect their IPR. The loss to Harris by Ericson showed the strenth of the F & J team.

IDCC is now viewed as a hemiroid on NOKIA's butt. They want to preparation H the situation and hope they just go away. MSFT was famous for using smaller companies technology then just stealing it, leaving the inventors holding the bag. After listening to some of the recent Nokia statements they would like to just use IPR and not pay for it.

So I see a very long draw out battle ahead in both 2G and 3G when it comes to NOKIA/SAM/ERIC/MOT. These guys all have the Gorilla mindset. IDCC needs to do what they are doing. Getting deals done with NEC/SHARP/SANYO/RIMM, companies that respect IPR and understand that working together can make them more profitable. Basically the only way I see the big guys paying is by force.