Replies to post #7643 on Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[alertmeipp]

>> A solid Q2 revenue increase of 15% over Q1 would get us to $60M

Last year, QoQ in Q2 was 20%. This year, with RHA3, abnormal low growth in Q1 RHA, renewed Daxxify strategy and no coupon hit.

I am hoping for > 15% growth this year. However, the base is larger so maybe 15% is reasonable.

[usma67korea]

if RVNC hits $60M for Q2 (forecast is for 66M+ which is 13.8% yoy increase only), shares will get hammered again. Q1 is weakest Q in revenue annually, so using Q1 revenue of 51M and to grow 15% QoQ is not quite the estimate I would use. 15% yoy Q2 increase from 2023 would be more suitable target. whether they hit it I don't know but that's how I see it

[valiano]

Thanks for your post.. Over the next 2.5 years they're due to repay 380m in principal. If they enter 2025 with 190m and burn 40m over the year, that leaves them with a ~230m gap. Granted some of that will be closed by 2026 profitability but they can't raise new debt (negative covenants) and Athyrium declined to extend the third tranche (I'd presume they're not a rush to roll over the existing notes either). Some further dilution is unavoidable imo - the bet would be that SP will skyrocket before that.

[go seek]

So Soma, if Revance hits ~ Revenue of $70M, $75M, and $85M (or thereabouts) in the next 3 quarters, the $280M revenue target for 2024 will be achieved.