Replies to post #7650 on Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[Tomdontworry]

I think the 2027 debt is convertible at $33 so if dumb ceo can figure out a way to bring the share price up then they will either be able to convert, or refinance.

[alertmeipp]

If they get to break even 2025 and with a growing profile, they should be able to refinance 230mm in 2026 to avoid dilution if they choose to.

Then 25+ percent growth in 2026, I see them start to generate good cash thereafter. Shares price should be much healthier.

The current share price does not reflect the value

[soma2022]

the 1.75% March 2027 Convertible notes will be refinanced without a problem once they turn profitable and continue to grow revenue.

Institutions need to feel comfortable that no further dilutive raises are coming at current debt levels. If Revance can hit that $80 to $85M revenue target by Q4 and finish the year with over $165M in cash with a cash burn in the $25M range by Q4, and Daxi sales showing solid year/year growth and market share gains, gains in therapeutic and China sales starting to kick in by 2025, then this stock should trade at 4x 2024 sales = $1.1B market cap soon after the Q4 2024 Earnings call in February = $10.50/share.

Current share price has priced in at least a 20 to 40% dilutive raise in 2025 IMO, and I don't see that being the case. I see this as a binary outcome with an action date Feb 2025 or 8 months out.