$277M was cash at quarter end March 31, 2024 and after the $100M raise.
Non GAAP OPEX this year trending to bottom of range $290M to $310M....So let's assume $295M for full year minus $73.6M in Q1 = $221M for remainder of year.
$280M total revenue guidance for 2024 minus $52.1M in Q1 = $227.9M Revenue for remainder of 2024. This does not include any milestone payments from Fosun/Viatris.
$227.9M x 72% GMs = $164M Gross Profit for Q2 to Q4 2024.
$164M GP minus $221M non GAAP opex = $57M Non GAAP loss for remaining 3 quarters.
Now add debt paydown and Interest expenses and finance lease payments of $35M for remainder of year:
Net Interest Expense of $2.3M/qtr for next 3 quarters:
My estimate of Finance Lease pre-payments (this is for Anji and PCI manuf/Fill/finish facilities): $8M/qtr
Athyrium debt payments: $2.5M total Q3/Q4
Add in $10M to AR/AP deficit/working capital as sales grow and I have cash burn of $57M + $35M + $10M = $102M
$277M - $102M = $175M Cash to end 2024 plus any milestone payment from Fosun/Viatris = $15M and based on current Revenue projections, Revance should finish 2024 with $190M.
Assuming revenue hits $85M in Q4: $39M RHA (15% year/year increase) , $38M in Daxi Aesthetic (58% y/y revenue increase), and $8M Daxi for CD; and we should shrink cash burn to around $27M in Q4.
Revance will need $110 to $115M in quarterly revenue to get to cash flow break even. My thinking: $40M RHA, $50M Daxi Aesthetic, and $20M Daxi CD. Should be recognizing China Fosun daxi sales by 2025 first half of 2025.
When will this happen? Q2 to Q3 2025. Revance should have over $100M cash remaining despite the accelerating Athyrium loan payoff schedule.
A solid Q2 revenue increase of 15% over Q1 would get us to $60M but that means Q3 and Q4 will need to see some big revenue growth and I am not so confident they will hit their revenue guidance so I feel that $280M revenue guidance for 2024 is at risk. My rev target is $265M, and, while disappointing, I still see Fosun milestone payment and CD milestone payments in 2025 as countering the $10M higher cash burn for 2024.
