Replies to post #2495 on Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[Jake2234]

Thanks for the reply, Willy. It’s great discussion.

On the clinical landscape, I would refer you to the Pardes dataset. Review the placebo arm. How will EDP-235 beat the SPRINT placebo arm? It’s not an foregone conclusion, but I do not believe it will. The world population has high seropositivity to Omicron. As far as continued death rate, these people will never be treated with 235 in a clinical trial. If they enroll HR pts during a phase 3, this will take a long time as there is a potential life saving therapy available to most (Pax). Maybe they can enroll HR folks who are on statins? Most docs would pull the patients off the statin. My thesis on 235 is simply born out of the Pardes -real- placebo dataset. Facts there we can’t ignore. It’s just not 2021 anymore.

Now, it’s highly concerning that going into a top line (within 4 weeks!), they announce a “non-dilutive” fundraising event. Remember when they announced a new high risk RSV trial right before announcing a failed result on RSVP? Let’s please not forget this. Smells familiar… I applaud the c suite for this tactful play, but to me it spells uncertainty for them to secure a deal. If they had someone interested, they would already have the deal in place. Selling the royalty stream now does nothing whatsoever to puff their feathers and exert independence to a potential partner. There is no way in hell that results are still blinded if they truly have a May topline. The GC’s recent buy goes counter to this thesis, but I still can’t get a sense of what his total holdings are.

One good point you make is future variants. This is a guaranteed thing for me. Think past Omicron … SARS-3! It will definitely happen and I hope they are around to catch these patients, and differentiate vs pbo.

[vinmantoo]

For me the up front money secured by Mavyret agreement means that there is no money bottleneck. It puts ENTA in a stronger bargaining position if there were to be a partner. You don't want to be in a position where you are desperate to deal. (that's my opinion)

Exactly. The reason why ENTA didn't get a better royalty deal from ABBV with their HepC drugs is they were in a position of weakness. This financial deal means ENTA is now in a position of strength and they don't desperately need a deal. Obviously it all depends on the data from the EDP-235 phase 2 trial, where likely the safety data is the biggest potential worry. ENTA could theoretically fund their own phase 3 trial alone but I am sure they would rather partner rather than take the full risk themselves. I can see from you posts your were response to Jake, but that guy claimed the FDA would never allow anyone to run a phase 3 trial, which is nonsense. However, it is telling he now he now says ENTA will do it alone so I guess he "thinks" the FDA changed its mind. Of course the financial deal ENTA made give them freedom and some leeway.

The world needs better anti-Covid drugs than Paxlovid as Covid will be around a long time. Obviously, the resident board "expert" Jake does not agree as foolishly stated that Advil would show non-inferiority to Paxlovid. I must admit I added a bit more today at $34.75. The NASDAQ was down 2% as McCarthy threatens to crash the economy.