Thanks for the reply, Willy. It’s great discussion.
On the clinical landscape, I would refer you to the Pardes dataset. Review the placebo arm. How will EDP-235 beat the SPRINT placebo arm? It’s not an foregone conclusion, but I do not believe it will. The world population has high seropositivity to Omicron. As far as continued death rate, these people will never be treated with 235 in a clinical trial. If they enroll HR pts during a phase 3, this will take a long time as there is a potential life saving therapy available to most (Pax). Maybe they can enroll HR folks who are on statins? Most docs would pull the patients off the statin. My thesis on 235 is simply born out of the Pardes -real- placebo dataset. Facts there we can’t ignore. It’s just not 2021 anymore.
Now, it’s highly concerning that going into a top line (within 4 weeks!), they announce a “non-dilutive” fundraising event. Remember when they announced a new high risk RSV trial right before announcing a failed result on RSVP? Let’s please not forget this. Smells familiar… I applaud the c suite for this tactful play, but to me it spells uncertainty for them to secure a deal. If they had someone interested, they would already have the deal in place. Selling the royalty stream now does nothing whatsoever to puff their feathers and exert independence to a potential partner. There is no way in hell that results are still blinded if they truly have a May topline. The GC’s recent buy goes counter to this thesis, but I still can’t get a sense of what his total holdings are.
One good point you make is future variants. This is a guaranteed thing for me. Think past Omicron … SARS-3! It will definitely happen and I hope they are around to catch these patients, and differentiate vs pbo.
