Replies to post #516641 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[vator]

How are you valuing Direct and other solid cancers for “L”?

Then ask a long holder about your valuation.

[SkyLimit2022]

The MC at the time of acquisition is hard to predict for any company considering how quickly it can rise. For DCVax, the big picture is much more interesting and enlightening: What is the technology worth as a platform and in combo? Years of safety/efficacy data from 94 trial sites globally and years of compassionate use safety/efficacy data are together the most reliable indicators of value. DCVax is already efficacious, but further development of the technology, innovations of methods of use, and indications beyond GBM are valuable beyond measure.

Additionally, we need to factor in the unmet need of rGBM. The rGBM data was a breakthrough discovery as survival was doubled for a stage of the disease for which there is no treatment to extend life.

Furthermore, the capacity to manufacture at large scale is another amazing factor to keep in mind.

Immunotherapy is the future of cancer treatment. FDA believes without question that cell-based science is worth their support and will ensure that the United States will lead the world in technologies to better address cancer, extend life, and ultimately reach a cure.

Steinman’s discovery of the dendritic cell won the Nobel Prize some years ago, and Dr. Liau’s work built upon his discovery and led to the discovery of how the dendritic cell-based technology can extend life for the deadliest cancer known to humankind. Dr. Liau deserves a Nobel Prize for her work and has already earned a worldwide reputation as an immunotherapy pioneer and scientific genius.

Dr. Liau is building upon the discoveries of scientists who have preceded her in time, and she is enlightening the future of immunotherapy with her groundbreaking work.

“I will respect the hard-won scientific gains of those physicians in whose steps I walk, and gladly share such knowledge as is mine with those who are to follow.” —Hippocratic Oath

https://www.livescience.com/16354-nobel-prize-medicine-2011-immune-research.html

https://virtualtrials.org/dcvax.cfm

https://soc-neuro-onc.org/

https://connect.uclahealth.org/2022/09/14/brain-cancer-discovery-clinical-trials/

https://www.fda.gov/science-research/advancing-regulatory-science/fda-nih-joint-leadership-council-charter

https://connect.uclahealth.org/2021/03/22/ucla-received-590-million-in-nih-funding-second-highest-total-for-academic-medical-centers-in-2020/

https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/fda-organization/richard-pazdur

https://www.annalsofoncology.org/article/S09237534(22)00006-0/fulltext

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/50-years-progress-treating-patients-cancer

https://www.webmd.com/cancer/cancer-in-context/video/richard-pazdur

https://www.onclive.com/view/pazdur-followed-the-pathway-of-greatest-resistance-to-the-fda

[Horseb4CarT]

In case you weren’t aware, the nwbo share price has recently reached close to $2 and about $2.85 if memory serves me within the past 2-3 years, at approximately the total shares nominally 1 billion shares.

The higher move spiked quickly, and didn’t last long at all, however these moves establish that the share price can easily go up quickly on solidly good news and press, such as approvals news.

So imo I believe the sp could quickly get to $3-$5 or more on such news, making a buyout at around $10+ supportable, except many of us longs think nwbo wants at least $20 per share in a buyout.

It’s been a long journey for early investors, and the recent investors are in a great position of still being able to buy shares less than 75 cents, many of the earlier concerns being derisked, such as the phase 3 trial completed and met endpoints of mOS, manufacturing certified, and approvals reasonably within sight!

The natural reaction is how can an investment in this status still be at less than $1B market cap?

Dig in and analyse all the available due diligence and consider the reputations and quality of the neurosurgeons and medical centers involved in the large multinational trial, and draw your own conclusions and odds of success.

I constantly torture myself over every breadcrumb of due diligence and run through the logic, and still/always come out thinking the risk-reward is very favorable imo.

I’ve invested more than I would have ever thought to invest into a sub dollar stock and try hard not to further invest large additional funds on the principle that I must not risk my family’s standard of living no matter how good the odds look.

Besides, I accumulated (and still accumulate small numbers of additional) shares enough to improve our finances significantly at $5-$10, and generational wealth at $20+ !!!

You do you :-)

[biosectinvestor]

The results have not yet been broadly publicized and a reasonable value yet materialized. Likely there would be other deals before a sale to get there. They are not going to sell this technology for $2B on approval.

The good thing is that large enough stakes are owned by enough people who expect quite a bit more that a hostile takeover is very unlikely. A hostile takeover when an asset is this undervalued is the largest risk you typically face with a tiny company like this with breakthrough technology.