Replies to post #515217 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[dr_lowenstein]

lol lol wow that is quite a projection

[dr_lowenstein]

Hey show use the calculations lollol

[biosectinvestor]

I know all about DCF, but they do not have cash flow and making such predictions before approval is a fun exercise, but not hard data one. Additionally Merck has massive resources to scale, and getting similar resources to NWBO without a sale or large partnership would be a challenge involving substantial changes likely to the capital table that might affect that price per share, which is why generally one uses market cap, and does not push out to share price without laying all those comparative capitalization details out.

I don’t think a large price per share at this moment therefore would be realistic except maybe for private companies where all of this is very controlled and stepped and everyone is in agreement as to what money will go where and how much new value it creates, as is done with private internet related companies before they go public.

Unfortunately this is an OTC public biotech that has had its price boxed in by constant short attacks whenever the price gets away from them for too long. And they have not had resources to deal with that and developing their business as well, so finances are focused on pragmatic details.

Additionally, Keytruda had certain actual approvals for various indications that are not yet a given for DCVax-L, and the pricing and cost structure is different.

Interesting exercise, but without laying it all out, for people to see, I would be highly skeptical of the value of the company currently being $187 per share.

DCF:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discounted_cash_flow

[sentiment_stocks]

Thank you no2koolaid, for your detailed explanation. I meant to do this sooner, but non-NWBO life got in the way. :)

Interesting the numbers that came up using the analysis of Keytruda's revenue alone, and what NWBO would be at using those numbers.

I think we're probably several years away from nearing $200... I'd think we've gotta get those RAs in the bag, proven ramped up production w/o problems, and new trials in other indications going.

And from there, to the moon! :)

[Poor Man -]

I may be delirious from my wild travels, but let me interject a smidgen of reality. Merck, the owner of Keytruda, has a market cap of $220 billion as of today. And obviously they sell much more than just Keytruda with a full portfolio and pipeline of drugs.

If NWBO’s share price were $187 today, the market cap would be $280 billion based on 1.5 billion in shares, assuming the share count will increase to cover all warrant and option obligations.

So, something seems a bit off when NWBO with one orphan treatment is valued at over 25% greater than the full market value of Merck.

That’s some serious Koolaid.

I did an analysis on Keytruda as a separate business not as a drug, and used their real numbers to project NWBO's potential growth. So, real numbers, real timeframe for revenues (NWBO has neither). In keeping with the concept of DCF - valuing an investment today using future cash flow projections based on the real experience of Keytruda - NWBOs share price today would be 187.11.

[jammy32]

.70 cents to 170. Seems a little hopeful.