NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[no2koolaid]

Senti,
Okay, to avoid any mistaken impressions, DCF is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment today, based on projections of future cash flows (how much money it will generate in the future). As I said, it is both art and science. For some this can be difficult to grasp, nonetheless...

The science is easy (the algorithm). The art is more difficult because, when identifying the independent variables, the question is based on what? NWBO has nothing to base a DCF upon. However, Keytruda provided the basis for good comparisons...novel cancer drug with an actual track record. The time projections? The time frame is always a SWAG (unless you have an actual timeframe, but that was provided by Keytruda). That is why I did two analyses (y'a how, solve for X and solve for Y) to give us a fair range. This is not proof of its value, it is just one person's analysis.

But your point about Merck is a worthy one and for that I did another analysis and it was even more interesting...

I did an analysis on Keytruda as a separate business not as a drug, and used their real numbers to project NWBO's potential growth. So, real numbers, real timeframe for revenues (NWBO has neither). In keeping with the concept of DCF - valuing an investment today using future cash flow projections based on the real experience of Keytruda - NWBOs share price today would be 187.11.

That's my story and I am sticking to it!