Replies to post #515963 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[dr_lowenstein]

That proves what nonsense those numbers are

[biosectinvestor]

I won’t justify huge valuations like that, I agree, but as for Merck, it’s biggest drug is Keytruda, but it does not hold a monopoly on PD1/PD-L1 blockers AND it’s patent is coming up on end of life.

So while the share price has done well, it has a few factors that undermine full valuation in the same context as a company that would have the sole drug in its class, and that can very likely work well with almost all of the other immune therapies and many of the other treatments likely as well.

Obviously, those things need to ultimately be validated. But if it works with solid tumors across the board using various strategies and combinations, it has quite a lot of potential to generate huge ultimate revenues. In the possession of a Merck, it is worth a lot more than by itself. So such a company should have to pay for that privilege.

[no2koolaid]

Nope, no kool-aid for me and one must be careful how one determines the value of a firm. Kaizenman actually has the eye opening discussion, as he did E/V calculations.

Frankly, trying to value a company through market cap is intellectually lazy and neither E/V nor DCF consider market cap the prevailing means to assess a company's value.

Market capitalization, or "market cap", is the aggregate market value of a company represented in a dollar amount. Since it represents the “market” value of a company, it is computed based on the current market price (CMP) of its shares and the total number of outstanding shares.

One can easily see that market cap is NOT an accurate means to value a company when considering the market cap of AMC and GME at the time of the "great meme invasion". Neither had a market cap that accurately represented the value of the businesses. Today, both remain financially challenged.

Not sure if this link was checked, but it is a set of best practices for determining valuations for bio/pharma. It offers a "dirty dozen" for any poor man to consider and, when doing so, please notice that "market cap" is not among them.
https://www.biopharmavantage.com/pharma-biotech-valuation-best-practices

[Fireman02360]

NWBOs share price today would be 187.11.

There is zero chance, anytime in the next 20 years, that NWBO becomes worth more than Merck. Zero, zilch, nada. End of story. Merck is a HUGE conglomerate with its hands in "everything" biotech that took years and years to establish.

Like you, I am not drinking the "kool-aid", its way too strong for me. Once again, numbers that are not based in reality and to say the least, absurd.
-Fireman