I agree with your take. Typically with a small yet experienced & efficient team, you’d get FDA approval in about 18 months and UK/EU in about 2 years from data lock.
It’s really interesting that LP owning Advent (dynamic team with a good blend of youth and experience that truly care about their brand & credibility!) and LP running NWBO (laid back, semi-retired folks that have no interest in improving the brand and credibility!) appear as 2 completely different personalities from an outside world. In my mind, only one possible theory can explain such behavior - she doesn’t plan to hold onto NWBO much longer! The only thing she cares about is she is in good books with Merck and therefore RAs….
Unless, of course this is all a scam, which I find hard to believe. The likes of LL and KA wouldn’t be fighting this late in the game otherwise!
Either way, there is still a long wait ahead for approvals as I don’t believe we will have any this year. So we will be well over 2 years before we get our first approvals. Pretty much all the posters that post here speculating MHRA soon have also speculated that we were going to see TLD+ publication spring 2021, then summer 2021, then fall, then winter, and so on….
Let’s see how the next month or two goes. Never hurts to take some off the table as there is still some element of risk, but every investor must do what they feel most comfortable with!