Replies to post #452701 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[biosectinvestor]

Not true. I did not speculate on early TLD at all, and in fact I said I had seen indications of the FDA guidance, from someone at FDA by end of 2021, but that I did not think publication would be before that, and that was not about approval.

However, I think you know no more than the rest of us on timing of publication or approval. And I did not say absolutely a timing for approval, I just said they likely qualify for a new, accelerated program that can start from the beginning of a trial or become available at the end of the trial.

One thing I doubt in your analysis is that they have been sitting on their hands since fall 2020, waiting only to get published, and I do not think getting Sawston certified to manufacture DCVax-L for specials and the effort to expedite thereafter Flaskworks certification is just because they have nothing better to do.

[hoffmann6383]

I don't understand why shareholders claim there is no basis to a criminal conspiracy theory but constantly find it important enough to bring it up

[Poor Man -]

Mav, this obviously a bad situation for a variety of reasons. And given the heighten risk to owning this stock, there is a need to recalibrate how much longer to hold, or at least to decide on a new strategy to de-risk by substantially lessening the number of shares in my portfolio. But I’m also still a believer in the Merck buyout scenario, so that keeps me in for the time being. (Investing requires believing your own eyes.)

You placed your finger on the problem. LP and the management team lack urgency, showing little interest in creating a sustainable business. They seem to want to achieve some set milestones and then exit. There is also a built in disincentive for urgency since Toucan continues to receive large fees and NWBO shareholders from a source of capital for Advent. Maybe that’s offset by the risk of further dilution, but as long as they can debt finance that’s less of a concern.

Another point you noticed is that LP has been able to create and buildout two conventional CDMOs with qualified management and staff. So they they actually have demonstrated the ability and wherewithal to form successful operating businesses and recruit experienced and qualified professionals. So LP does know how to do this.

The fact that none of that type of effort was dedicated to NWBO shows that LP is not serious about remaining independent. She is just maintaining NWBO as an investment vehicle, looking for the right time to sell, satisfying the conditions required by a pending buyer. And to note, exiting and realizing returns is exactly the goal of private equity funds, so her approach is completely consistent with what would be normally expected.