Replies to post #320925 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Boopka]

Mayo, damn good. Sticky please.

[boi568]

Thanks again for your research. It looks like you project a potential universe of patients who can be dramatically helped if 2-73 replicates its 2a results at about 6.8 million (5.3M + 1.5M).

I am holding with two significant figures rather than the exact numbers you were using.

You use the 84% WT from the 2a study. Missling has most recently moved that to 90-95 percent, I am sure with more data in hand. Per a Google search, the US Census finds only 0.8 percent (!) of people over 65 are uninsured. This includes citizens and non-citizens, as far as I can tell. Using these adjustments, and as the population is aging, I would estimate the likely U.S market as at least 7 million people and climbing. That is much higher than I would have thought this morning.

The next question would be, on a field without real competition, how many people could be expected to actually get a prescription if 2-73 works as hoped? 6 million?

Bourbon's buyout number looks better and better, if not his strategy.

[Avx4L]

ALL high dose patients from the phase 2a Alzheimer’s trial improved over SOC regardless of genomic makeup (29% better when combined).

Looking at your added column "% improved over SOC at week 148", the 29% you mention above matches the "All patients" group. Seems like you're implying that "All patients" from the figure are high dose patients, how do we know that? Can't find anywhere that states that.

[Investor2014]

It is a nice analysis in itself ok, except a bit like building a beautifully architected card house not being 100% certain the foundations aren't even a bit shaky despite having paid to get them reinforced.

On this basis it seems getting that extra mortgage, selling all other assets in the portfolio or essentially anything and everything to stock up on $AVXL is, well a complete we definitely got this no brainer.

An analogy, if anyone missed it, to say that this particularly beautiful only ever so slightly risky biotech card house is build on the foundation of a very small open label trial in mild to moderate AD (n=32, 1 misdiagnosis and 9 dropouts along the way) with even smaller subgroups, so small that no ordinary statistical methods are valid.

We therefore rely on a technique supported by AI called Formal Concept Analysis, which we believe can fish out the correlations in a manner that make subgroups as small as 2 patients safe to interpret as causative.

Then we use the same small study later on (148 weeks vs. the 57 weeks data) to kinda double check that what we initially inferred still holds water. Furthermore, we check again after the completions of two controlled randomised trials (Rett & PDD) with the same compound. Despite the quite different indications we make further inference that the original P2a analysis appears to still hold water (with one or two adjustments).

Now, before anyone again asks why I am here, this is truly encouraging and exciting data and analysis done by Anavex and several investors. I am just such that I need to provide a little balance to the excitement.

I also agree that Aduhelm and the process to get it approved are both very dodgy, but lowering the bar for approval (unless someone actually succeeds in unravelling that particular card house). No I am not invested neither in $SAVA or any other current WS darling AD attempts - cause I reckon if any current AD initiatives are worth my investment its $AVXL.

Underlying message: be a little wary of jumping to conclusions in biotech and think trice before getting that additional mortgage or selling everything else in favour of $AVXL. If we, as we probably will, get A2-73 approved her investors will have plenty more opportunity to build safe returns going forward.

[oldandintheway]

Great work, MM - thank you.