Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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Blarcamesine's Overwhelming Phase 2a AD Efficacy: Recap

The following was a project to determine Blarcamesine's most optimal patient size and provide an ADCS-ADL analysis compared to standard of care. I think you will want to read this. All links to sourcing is below.

Metrics:
Number of Alzheimer's patients in the United States (all severity): 6,200,000
Number of Alzheimer's patients in the United States (mild): 3,124,800
Number of Mild Cognitive Impairment due to Alzheimer's patients (MCI-AD) in the United States: 5,000,000
Combined MCI-AD and mild-AD (M-AD) patients in the United States: 8,124,800
Prevalence of S1R WT in population: 84%
Prevalence of APOE3 allele in population: 78%

For Absolute Most Optimized Responders (top blue line/group 1)

According to the Alzheimer’s Association, there are 11,200,000 total MCI-AD and all-stage Alzheimer’s patients in the United States. Of the 11,200,000 patients, 8,124,800 are considered MCI-AD or M-AD. For these early patients, Anavex would be able to provide potentially reversible treatment to 5,323,368 (66%). These 5,323,368 patients have the S1R WT variant (84% probability) and APOE3 allele (78% probability). Individuals have approximately 66% chance of having both S1R WT and APOE3 allele.

This analysis indicates that out of ALL U.S. MCI-AD and all-stage Alzheimer’s Dementia patients, Blarcamesine is able to most optimally treat 48%. Most optimal treatment would likely result in reversal of disease pathology. This patient subset performed approximately 486% better than SOC.

For Second-most Optimized Responders (top green line/group 2)

Of 8,124,800 MCI-AD or M-AD patients, Blarcamesine can provide therapeutic effect vastly outpacing placebo and SOC to 1,501,463 patients (18%). The 18% is in addition to the aforementioned 66% (combined 84% for MCI-AD and M-AD patients). These 1,501,463 patients have the S1R WT (84% probability) and non-APOE3 allele (22% probability). Individuals have approximately 18% chance of having both S1R WT and non-APOE3 allele.

This analysis indicates that out of ALL U.S. MCI due to Alzheimer’s and all-stage Alzheimer’s Dementia patients, Anavex is able to provide great therapeutic effect to 13% (61% when combined with most optimized group). Great therapeutic effect would slow decline some 237% more effectively than SOC. Such an effect would allow patients to live relatively normal lives for a dramatically increased time horizon over SOC.

Final Summation & Thoughts

You may be asking yourself why I didn’t include groups 3 (peach color) through group 6 (sea foam green color) in this analysis. Simply, it is difficult to make a meaningful assessment because it is unclear if these patients were on high or lose dose. What is clear, is Blarcamesine’s overwhelming effect on early pathology patients when used in high doses and when those patients have either S1R WT, APOE3 alleles, or both. Conveniently, approximately 84% of the population has S1R WT, 78% have APOE3 alleles, and statistically 66% of the population have both. In case there is any remaining doubt as to Blarcamesine’s efficacy, remember that ALL high dose patients from the phase 2a Alzheimer’s trial improved over SOC regardless of genomic makeup (29% better when combined). This result has been proven in the relatively large PDD trial. If Anavex can closely duplicate these results in their large 2b/3 Alzheimer’s trial, Anavex will nearly certainly become approved by all relevant regulatory agencies (when applied) and reap significant gains for its shareholders.



Sources:
https://www.nia.nih.gov/news/half-alzheimers-disease-cases-may-be-mild

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/snp/rs1800866?fbclid=IwAR0RgXA_0yBUuw6RUDHi4D9bbprCqwPa6cGmAUrGS8vqLm0VykOpzlAFxf8#frequency_tab

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3726719/

https://alz-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/alz.12328

https://www.alz.org/media/documents/alzheimers-facts-and-figures.pdf

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7167374/