Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[boi568]

Thanks again for your research. It looks like you project a potential universe of patients who can be dramatically helped if 2-73 replicates its 2a results at about 6.8 million (5.3M + 1.5M).

I am holding with two significant figures rather than the exact numbers you were using.

You use the 84% WT from the 2a study. Missling has most recently moved that to 90-95 percent, I am sure with more data in hand. Per a Google search, the US Census finds only 0.8 percent (!) of people over 65 are uninsured. This includes citizens and non-citizens, as far as I can tell. Using these adjustments, and as the population is aging, I would estimate the likely U.S market as at least 7 million people and climbing. That is much higher than I would have thought this morning.

The next question would be, on a field without real competition, how many people could be expected to actually get a prescription if 2-73 works as hoped? 6 million?

Bourbon's buyout number looks better and better, if not his strategy.