Replies to post #284589 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[ilovetech]

Marjac, drug patent exclusivity is granted for 20 years for a good reason. It's said to take 10 years to recover the costs associated with bringing a drug to market. Keep in mind, drugs are typically expensive, and drug companies enjoy "high margins." I'm certain Amarin had not anticipated being required to run a 6-year half-billion-dollar trial. It's worse, it took a full year from Reduce-it TLD to finally get an approval. What about the marathon waiting period for getting the DTC approval? Nonetheless, unexpected delays are typically more than compensated for, by the fact, that Drug companies enjoy earning "high margins.". Getting back to Amarin, if we were to assume Lipitor's sales growth model, it took Lipitor two years before reaching peak sales. So when we speak in terms of "what's the difference between 6 months early from 2029," to then leave that date behind, to consider 2028, it's not peanuts. It wouldn't matter for a typical BP with many drugs to throw out a year, maybe two. But Amarin has one drug. While it's understandable for you to apply your legal understanding to the debate, let's be cognizant, that we're not missing the economics involved in the equation.

ILT

[rafunrafun]

M - if they settled for 2028 with H & R, the following day, other generics would attack Amarin's patents. BP would never give them any real value until the patent uncertainty is removed.

[Whalatane]

Marjac ...appreciate ( most ) of your posts ....but you know that in some cases, opposing parties refuse to settle ...no matter how much their attorneys advise them to do so.

My view on Dr Reddy was that they were " go big or go home "...all or nothing . Doubt they would have accepted a 2028 entry even if it was offered.

Kiwi

[alm2]

Marjac
A is as possible as B as is every other time frame you might care to suggest -as being reflective of the parties position
Pure speculation
Du would know nothing of A B or any position in between - such had no bearing on the trial save that it went ahead
Those who constantly take the position of being critical of management for not settling do so without a clue as to the facts - they engage in pure speculation

I am not against speculation per se ...so long as those who engage in it recognise that this is what they engage in

I consider (speculate) that the appeal has a very high chance of succeeding - I consider there is virtually no prospect now of settlement

I hold my shares on the basis of my speculation

I may speculate and be wrong - but I hope I am right
I speculate that if Amarin win the share price will significantly increase I speculate that 25 is again attainable
I am pretty certain on the facts that we will know an outcome to this in 4 / 5 months time

We will soon know
Alm

[sts66]

Vivus still exists? I could have swore they went BK or merged with someone - like Belviq and Contrave, Qsymia was a total bomb, never got more than piddly sales because it was a combo of two ancient generics (phen and "dopamax"). I'm also surprised the FDA still allows it to be sold, because AFAIK VVUS never started the post marketing CVOT they were required to do - haven't checked for a while, but at least 5 yrs after Q was approved VVUS hadn't started it. ARNA's B was pulled over cancer concerns, something that came up in pre-clinical mice studies that was eventually glossed over after they refiled the NDA, got a CRL for that issue the first time. Glad you posted that link though - shows generics will go after brand name drugs "just because" even though they know they'll only be making a few shekels from selling it.

Per the what's more plausible question, of course the only answer is (b), but again it's hard to compare AMRN with VVUS - VVUS didn't get an sNDA approved that multiplied their addressable patient pops by a factor of 10 or 20. But I can see AMRN balking at giving H and R a one year early start, would allow Teva an earlier start too, and if they agreed to that you'd probably just invite more generics to the party.

Lastly, IIRC, when pre-trial discussions were held there was a very negative energy surrounding the talks, like "this is pointless" - I believe the final negotiation meeting they had only lasted a matter of hours - it was obvious nobody was budging off their position.