Replies to post #284594 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[marjac]

Valid, fair point, ILT. But all that means to me is a slightly lower BO expectation price because the company has no existing in 2028-2029, plus settling at 2028 is infinitely preferable to the collapse of 3/30.

[HDGabor]

i-

let's be cognizant, that we're not missing the economics involved in the equation

Spot on. The settlement is not a legal but a business decision.

If Amarin sees the patents as weak/ vulnerable it would settle for "2023" entry. Of course, it worth something to avoid the uncertainty of the outcome (the Order) despite the trust in the patents ... (e.g. ... as in other cases) February 2029 ... 6 months* earlier than the previous (Teva) settlement.

* Amarin, Covington and independent parties checked / reviewed the patents. Amarin had several views / opinions about the possible outcome, a basis to determine (offer) the realistic settlement condition.

The Order surprised everybody, the general view is that Amarin has a solid (strong?) ground for reversal due to the absurdity of Judge Du ... but crying for settlement, blaming the management.

SMH ... 20/20 at its finest.

Best,
G

[sts66]

I'm certain Amarin had not anticipated being required to run a 6-year half-billion-dollar trial.

??? They certainly did know - and the FDA's ANCHOR SPA said they could not submit the sNDA until R-IT was 50% enrolled.

It's worse, it took a full year from Reduce-it TLD to finally get an approval.

??? They submitted the sNDA on 3/31 and got approval on 12/13 - and that delay due to Adcom was almost certainly caused by AMRN because FDA said a major amendment to the sNDA had been made - people guessed that AMRN asked for a wider label than the R-IT trial could support.

But to your point that potentially losing 1 yr of sales if they settled with H and R for 2028, definitely a big deal - the last year of brand name sales is typically when the most profits are made, usually because BP jacks up the price before they lose patent protection - there's a million examples of that - could have cost AMRN $1B in proft if V became a megablockbuster like many predicted would happen..