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jessellivermore

03/23/20 1:06 PM

#255212 RE: IgnoranceIsBliss #255208

TET...

Nice post...I agree...We are not facing a dinosaur situation..

":>) JL

Value in the end

03/23/20 1:13 PM

#255218 RE: IgnoranceIsBliss #255208

TTE. Makes a lot of practical sense.

sts66

03/23/20 5:49 PM

#255389 RE: IgnoranceIsBliss #255208

Thousands of interactions per contagious person? Where did you come up with that number? It's beyond too high IMO - you'd have to form a long line of people and shake hands with every one of them multiple times per day to get to thousands of total interactions. Say you went to the mall back when they were still open - the only people you infectiously interacted with while walking around were ones you came within 6 ft of, or ones you physically touched (should be zero unless you get help having clothing fitted, strangers touching strangers is pretty much off limits). When I was working I could easily go a week w/o coming within 6 ft of 100 people, plus many of those interactions would be with the same people, not unique ones, and that includes standing in line to order and pay for lunch. I wouldn't argue with your number for people who work in retail or certain service industries like bartenders and waitresses, but the avg. working bloke just doesn't interact with that many people on a daily basis.

I would say the current number of positive cases backs up my opinion, but that would be false, since we have no clue how many people are/were actually infected and we'll never know. Something else bugs me as being statistically wrong, the worldometer numbers - look at the massive discrepancy between US total cases to Total recovered compared to the other countries - this makes zero sense - only 0.006% of US cases have recovered, but in China the # is 90%, Italy and Spain ~ 10%?