Dude, two obvious things you are missing:
- Re interactions, if we are counting coming within 6 feet of another human being, I hit that easily over a three-day period in my city life, which is "where the action is" on these infections. Hell, just on the subway ride to work in the morning and then walking in my number must be in the hundreds. If you live in Hooterville, and you're retired -- ok maybe. But that's not the paradigm here.
- The US has way fewer recoveries because we are way earlier in this blowup process than China, and a couple weeks earlier in it than Europe. In two weeks our numbers will look proportionately like some of the European countries do now.
This is a big part of the panic issue now. Most folks -- even folks who are pretty sophisticated in other areas, including medicine -- don't understand epidemic math. It is not intuitive.
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