InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 73
Posts 6212
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 05/01/2011

Re: None

Monday, 03/23/2020 12:56:42 PM

Monday, March 23, 2020 12:56:42 PM

Post# of 425811
Some basic oversimplified virus math

So assume that there are actually 1,000,000 Americans out there who are positive for the virus now (this is not impossible)

And assume that, with no change in behavior, each is expected to infect 3 more people while contagious

That would mean they would infect another 3,000,000 Americans in short order

But they probably, under normal circumstances, have thousands of interactions during their contagious phase. It takes thousands of interactions for them to infect 3 people.

Now you cut those interactions by a factor of what -- 10? 100?

If only by a factor of 10, they only infect .3 people on average instead of 3. So 1,000,000 infect 300,000 infect 90,000 infect 27,000 infect 8,100, etc.

This diminution is going on in "reality", while the perception of growing infections is perpetrated by the media, focusing only on absolute numbers of new cases.

If what I am saying here weren't true -- that we are already getting the intended impact -- then the numbers right now would be EXPLODING higher.

“The trick is in what one emphasizes. We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves happy. The amount of work is the same.” Carlos Castaneda

Volume:
Day Range:
Bid:
Ask:
Last Trade Time:
Total Trades:
  • 1D
  • 1M
  • 3M
  • 6M
  • 1Y
  • 5Y
Recent AMRN News