I had stated that about Direct before, but failed to mention it in my earlier post, but I believe it can occur quicker than you believe, depending on how the Phase 2 Trial is structured. If the trial were not blinded, you could routinely be updated, I don't know that it must be blinded, but if that's the case, peeks at the data can be engineered into the trial. I believe many Phase 2 Trials permit interim discussions, and see no reason this trial cannot be developed in that way, and if it is, and if it began say in January, by Summer at least anecdotal evidence of efficacy could be seen and discussed. If the vaccine is as effective as we believe, I believe it's all a potential partner or buyer would need to know to properly value the company.
That said, does the value of the company increase as Direct closes in on approval, certainly, but that may not be the case until years later even if the FDA is willing to consider approval out of a Phase 2. At the earliest I think it would be a 2023 approval, by that time DCVax-L should be developing a substantial revenue stream, with DCVax-Direct coming on line, well over $20 billion could be the asking price. Of course it may not be nearly that early, the FDA may insist on a Phase 3 which probably couldn't complete for at least 5 years, say 2008 at the earliest. The question by then would be, how high might the stock price be by then. I believe that earnings at that time could easily be into double digit billions, especially if off label benefits of use of the drug were clear. A P/E of 30 would certainly be reasonable if Direct was anticipating approval near term. That would give a market cap near or in excess of $100 billion. I don't believe that BP will permit NWBO to grow to this point without consummating a buyout.
Gary
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