Replies to post #244398 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[flipper44]

If the trial is successful, I actually hope Merck makes a reasonable bid (not the low ones suggested), because I honestly believe that while LP has taken the company this far, if we are to move forward, larger resources (and I think Merck is probably the most responsible/capable one) are needed to move exponentially faster -- for the global patient population. Just as LP gave up the reigns of Cognate (who expanded with deeper pockets), she has, in the past stated she is willing to give up the reigns of NWBO for an offer she could not refuse. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is what I think.

[extrooper]

Excellent post “ sentiment _stocks”

[flipper44]

NVCR is valued at around 8 billion right now. They’ve got a device that is uncomfortable that you can strap or glue on to your head or body part, and the data supporting its efficacy is extremely questionable. -- Senti

I was reminded by something I came across the other day that it is not an easy thing to shave one's head on a regular basis in order to wear that helmet. Add to that the removal and reapplication each time one has to shave their head. For some, this is not an infrequent matter.

[jondoeuk]

''KITE had one approval, for a small subgroup of patients, and is considered quite toxic with horrible side effects, and it was sold for $12 billion to Gilead.''

KITE was working on more than just one cell based therapy (see post #243539). Prior to Yescarta, R/R DLBCL patients had a median survival of just over 6 months [1]. At two years, after a single infusion, half of this same patient population is still alive. The median survival has not yet been reached [2]. Three year survival data will be published soon. Also, GILD is running at least nine CAR-T trials in different hematologic malignancies.

''And I believe that so far, Gilead has said their 1st Q sales with Kite’s Yescarta amounted to about $96 million.''

Yescarta sales have significantly exceeded sales of Kymriah and Blincyto over the last several quarters and most, if not all have exceeded analyst consensus.

''At that rate, and if CAR-T can’t transition past rare blood cancers, it’ll take Gilead 125 years to make that 12 billion back.''

GILD is focusing on TCR-T cells when it comes to solid tumours and are running around a dozen trials in a range of types.

Refs:
1 http://www.bloodjournal.org/content/early/2017/08/02/blood-2017-03-769620
2 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanonc/article/PIIS1470-2045(18)30864-7/fulltext

[biosectinvestor]

Agreed Senti. That is my expectation as well. To sell before results or at such a relatively low valuation would be inconsistent with the tough stance so far, and would be akin to throwing in the towel for quick cash. I just don’t see it.

I think, subject to excellent topline data and further validation for other solid tumor types and cancers, this would reasonably have to be priced a lot higher than Car-T treatments, which still have relatively limited application, lots of competition, very bad side-effects and are very expensive to manufacture.

I think DCVax will have many potential applications, lots of opportunities for combinations that ass value to other drugs and create further value, and will likely be a broadly applicable, paradigm shifting platform. People don’t yet realize the potential for DC treatments and vaccines, so that will be a paradigm shift when it comes, which very possibly won’t be overnight, even with excellent topline data.

[BigfootOR]

Senti,

If there is a buy out, would the shareholders get to vote on that or is that decision solely on LP?

Thanks

[beartrap12]

I agree with most of what you’ve said, Sentiment. Linda has said it would have to be “an offer she can’t refuse.” And I consider that she’s thinking it has to be a fair price for the whole platform, if she wants to sell the whole platform. Therefore, it would have to be well above the buyout price of other limited and lethal biotechs that we’ve talked about.

[hyperopia]

Nice post. You’re right, Linda will not sell NWBO for $5B-10B. DCVax is a platform technology that is capable of treating not only most cancers, but also (potentially) auto-immune and many other diseases, so to think its price should be compared to limited CAR-T technology, is ridiculous.

While I think Linda is not looking for a buyout and is certainly prepared to take Northwest to the next stage of growth, knowing her background, I have some doubts that she will fight to stay independent if the right offer comes along. Northwest Bio only has a dozen or so employees, no sales or commercial infrastructure, and a contract manufacturer, so it’s really set up to be sold. If/when DCVax proves itself in ndGBM, the buyout offers certainly will come, since Big Pharma is always looking to add a hot new immunotherapy to the mix. BP is well aware of the difficulties that clinical-stage companies face when transitioning to a commercial-stage company and their offers at this stage may be less than Linda would accept, but you never know.

I can’t help but wonder what someone like Dr. Roger Perlmutter, (the president of Merck’s research labs who is currently running over a thousand clinical trials just studying Keytruda) thinks of the way tiny Northwest Bio has conducted its clinical trial program for DCVax, versus what the true potential could be in Merck’s hands. Based on their understanding of this potential, and their commercial success with Keytruda, it wouldn’t surprise me if Merck put a very solid offer on the table ($20B-30B) if Northwest presents outstanding data.

As an investor, my preference is for Northwest to remain independent and to partner combinations with big pharma. But I would think that almost everyone else, especially scientists, physicians and their patients would probably prefer to see DCVax in the hands of Merck or another big pharma company with the capabilities and resources to allow DCVax to reach its potential in the fastest time possible.